The Morning Market Briefing

Tom and a very out of breath Ben discuss the earnings results out of Target, Goldman Sachs Investor Day news, and Chevron’s decision to buy back shares. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefings Please see disclosures: https://www.narwhalcapital.com/disclosure

The guys discuss Pfizers's plan to acquire Seagan, but an antitrust suit could be looming. Union Pacific is looking to change their CEO as a result of Soroban Capital's letter complaining about the direction of the company moving forward. Ben ran in a half-marathon this weekend in Las Vegas, and he absolutely crushed it. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST,...

The guys discuss the upcoming release of some significant economic data, including PCE Deflator, PCE Core Deflator, New Home Sales, and U of Michigan Sentiment. Google makes news, coming under fire for automatic employee chat log deletion. DOJ cites this as a possible issue, attempting to show this was an intentional move by corporate. Boeing pauses the delivery of their 787 Dreamliner due to fuse...

The guys discuss a recap of yesterday's FED meeting, with sentiment being focused on a slower pace to fight inflation. Lael Brainard is set to be replaced as the Biden Administration's National Economic Council Director. Nvidia posts strong results, seeing the stock up 10% at the release of this news. Apple continues its efforts for innovation, now in the healthcare space regarding glucose reading...

The guys continue to discuss the big sell-off in the market yesterday with rates shocking the market back downward. 10-year interest rates climbed to 1.43%, marking the highest since November 9th of last year. Stocks are down over 3% across the board since February 3rd, and bonds continue to improve as well. Flights are continuing to be grounded due to winter storms, causing several issues for var...

The guys continue to discuss CPI numbers as the dust has settled from the full release yesterday. Retail sales are reporting this morning as they are expecting to show a strong report. Elon Musk announces that a new CEO will be appointed for Twitter by end of the calendar year. Scotland finds itself in a precarious situation as a surprise resignation from Nicola Sturgeon creates turmoil. For infor...

The guys discuss CPI numbers release with inflation back on the rise. Bank of America's Fund Manager Survey show majority of fund managers expect the US dollar to fall, the market to experience a bear rally, and the yield curve to steepen. US continues to sell out of the SPR despite also buying oil back. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www...

The guys discuss Consumer spending picks moving up in January, citing a weak December as a possible reason for the increase. CPI estimates are expected to move up to a 6.2% increase year over year. Big news updates this week with the release of CPI numbers, PPI numbers, jobless claims and others. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhal...

The guys discuss Russia cutting oil production significantly in repsonse to Western sanctions, nearly 5% is the expectation. Microsoft is set to cut jobs across a variety of units, including Surface, HoloLens, and Xbox. Consumer food costs expected to continue following staple earnings. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.co...

The guys discuss an exceptionally strong 10-year auction yesterday in the bond market. The auction saw a high level of international demand and a fairly low domestic participation. Disney earnings showed a miss on subscriber count but a beat on profit, sending the stock upwards 7% before market open today. Affirm continues to get punished in this market as their stock fell another 20% with terribl...

The guys discuss Powell's comments on the "significant period of time" required to bring down inflation. State of the Union comments include noting a late credit card fee for late credit cards, insulin price caps, and no "resort fees" at hotels. AI wars continue between Microsoft and Google. Chipotle earnings show that people are moving away from their business, despite their confidence on high in...

Amanda Riedling was born and raised in Cobb County, Georgia. She attended the University of Georgia for both her undergrad, in Finance, and law school, where she graduated cum laude in 2011. She's an owner and partner at Georgia Wills, Trusts, and Probate Firm, LLC, located in Marietta, GA, where she works across several specialties. From teaching probate and estate planning at Chatahoochee Tech t...

The guys discuss the FED's comments regarding the continued fight on inflation, with discussions focused around continuing the same path or potentially easing into a hopeful "soft landing." CVS is nearing a deal to acquire Oak Street (Primary Care Provider) for $10.5 billion. Meta revamps their stance and pursuit of the metaverse, focusing on 13-17 year old users with hopes to hit 1 million users...

The guys discuss the slide of the YEN as the Bank of Japan begins their transition from Kuroda to Masayoshi Amamiya. Several large deals are not going through as cash proves to be king during this market, stock options are not highly incentivized by purchasers. The WSJ expects more restaurant IPOs as travel and leisure are making their combacks. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live e...

The guys discuss the January jobs report, with a surprising number of jobs coming in that exceeded expectations. They spent considerable time discussing earnings reports from a few major companies in the US economy, including Apple, Google, Amazon, Starbucks, and Ford. A major readthrough on Starbucks includes their continued push in the Chinese market that has shown considerable downside as they...

The guys discuss the data and central bank recaps. The FED appears to be hawkish regarding ongoing increases, but there was acknowledgment of a need for substantially more evidence. Bank of England continues to tighten at 50bps at a time towards the target 4%. Overall sentiment is that the FED is certainly less hawkish than they have been in quite some time, but it's much too early to claim they h...

The guys discuss the Chinese Lunar New Year, which essentially signals 7 days off in China. During the week off, the market could be affected as a result of the break. Samsung continues to mull a decision on cutting chip production, but then again, perhaps they will not. Central World Banks continue to fight inflation with discussion on whether or not to slow agression or remain vigilant on the fi...

The guys discuss Juul exploring a sale or partnership with one of the big tobacco companies in the space. UK Migration Projection appears to be raising GDP. The White House Admin is sending 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in support of the war. Lots of positives from earnings reports, but INTC and LUV are showing incredibly poor numbers at the moment. For information on how to join the Zoom calls li...

The guys discuss Q4 GDP as numbers are soon to be released. CVX announces $75b stock buyback which would account for nearly 25% of all outstanding stock. Earnings wrap-up shows deflationary forces starting to roost. Earnings also show semiconductor softness, enterprise software holding up, bumbling management, and black boxes requiring pure faith. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live...

The guys discuss the possibility of inflation coming down even faster than the FED experts expect. Models show that a variety of factors could contribute to inflation moving in a variety of manners. Earnings from MSFT, COF, and ASML were just slightly down (better than expected), and AT&T and GD showed earnings up in spite of the current market. For information on how to join the Zoom calls li...

The guys discuss the DOJ's apparent positioning as they are poised to sue Google over digital advertising market dominance. Amazon continues its pursuit of becoming a dominant player in the healthcare sector, offering a subscription drug delivery service. Labor market shows that layoffs are continuing to ramp up across the economy currently. For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each...

The guys discuss Timiraos' comments on the slowing of the fight on interest rates. The main questions surrounding the interview are concerned with not slowing the attack in order to quickly and effectively deal with inflation in its totality. Elliott Management takes a large stake in Salesforce, causing a nice bump in the stock price upon announcement. Both Goldman and Abbott are being investigate...

The guys discuss the debt ceiling as Janet Yellen stated that the Treasury is taking "extraordinary measures" to make sure bondholders are being paid their interest payemnts on bonds being held. Larry Summers claims that the economy is headed towards a 1970s like crisis if central banks relent on rates before continued work on inflation. Netflix co-CEO Reed Hastings steps down, and Greg Peters (CO...

The guys discuss Jim Bullard's talk claiming the markets are down. His comments focus on stating that the FED needs to keep their foot on the gas and work towards a soft landing. DFS reports that headlines are good, but credit quality may be deteriorating. PG reports a -2.3% on earnings results, and BofA reports people want to spend money with higher income individuals carrying the economy current...

The guys discuss the economic data update with retail sales numbesr and PPI being reported. Redfin's report on the housing market shows that the number of listings is similar to 2021, far below 2022, but that the average time on the market for a house is significantly longer. High mortgage rates continue to freeze out many buyers in this market. United Airlines had a very strong quarter - beating...