Eventual

The GOP is playing defense. Alex and Brian dig into Republican spending moves in Texas and South Carolina as the Democratic wave thesis pushes traders toward increasingly unlikely races. The 2028 race starts on election night. Trader Nick Pappas explains how this year’s results could immediately reprice AOC, JD Vance, James Talarico, Raphael Warnock, Andy Beshear and other presidential longshots....

Bonds are screaming. Doug Campbell connects surging Treasury yields to Iran, inflation and the AI investment boom—and explains why another Fed hike may still be underpriced. Trump goes all-in on AI. The White House remains firmly pro-growth on artificial intelligence, opening trades around regulation, AI safety legislation and even potential government investment in the sector. Are the Ohio polls...

The midterm battlefield is expanding, and some of the races traders have been watching for months are suddenly showing up on everyone else’s radar. We start with a victory lap through IA-01, PA-07 and the Texas House battlefield, then ask the more important question: are traders already getting too aggressive on the Democratic side? Then it’s Signal or Noise. AOC wears a Buffalo Bills hoodie. Arno...

35 days until the midterms — and the political map is getting weird. Let's break down the latest prediction-market moves as Democrats start eyeing opportunities deep in the American heartland. We’re looking at whether Kentucky could actually get interesting, what traders are pricing in Kansas and Nebraska, and how much of the current midterm environment is signal versus blue-wave enthusiasm. Tres...

Alex and the crew ask the biggest question in prediction markets right now: are Democratic midterm prices getting too high? With bullish polling, red-state warning signs, and new chatter from analysts like Kristin Soltis Anderson, Lakshya Jain, and Nate Silver, we break down whether there’s still value left in the big Democratic trades — or whether the move has gone too far. We also zoom in on Sus...

Are Democrats getting too expensive in the prediction markets? On today’s Eventual, Alex and the crew dig into the latest midterm pricing — from Senate control and Texas to Montana and Los Angeles — and ask where traders may still be finding uncertainty as Election Day gets closer. Then, prediction markets themselves come under the microscope. The CFTC is scrutinizing so-called mention markets, wa...

Artificial Intelligence is out. “Super Intelligence” is in — at least if President Trump gets his way. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down Trump’s latest AI comments after he used his U.N. General Assembly appearance to reject broader international controls on AI and promote “super intelligence” as his preferred terminology. What does that mean for the prediction markets around AI regulation,...

Alex Keeney and Domer run through the biggest market movers heading into the midterms, including the latest Federal Reserve trade, shifting Senate-control markets, the CLARITY Act setback, AI politics, energy prices, and the people who could have an outsized impact on markets over the final stretch of the campaign. They also check in on one of the stranger elections across the Atlantic: the Holbor...

Is AI regulation finally moving in Washington — and is Kansas actually competitive? On today’s episode of Eventual, Alex and Pratik break down the latest prediction-market angles across politics, policy, and culture. First, they dig into the growing fight over AI regulation in Washington: whether an AI safety bill has any real path forward, how lawmakers are talking about the issue, whether “effec...

Is Texas really becoming competitive — or are traders getting ahead of themselves? Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the latest midterm polling and prediction-market action before turning to one of Washington’s biggest emerging fights: what, if anything, the U.S. government should do about increasingly powerful AI models. Nick Fitz and Griff Bohm join Eventual to explain what it actually...

Fall Ball is here. Trump-a-Palooza rolls into Day 2, NFL season markets are live, and Fed rate hike odds are moving again ahead of CPI. Alex Keeney and Domer open with the latest from Trump-a-Palooza, including what Trump’s convention messaging says about family, legacy, “communists,” “weirdos,” and the political tone heading into the midterms. They also discuss how Republican and Democratic messa...

Trump-a-Palooza comes to Dallas, US Open markets heat up after Ben Shelton’s upset over Carlos Alcaraz, Kalshi’s legal fight moves closer to the Supreme Court, and Pascal co-founder Matt Downey explains his vision for the next generation of prediction-market trading. Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule break down the latest prediction-market action across politics, sports, regulation, and trading tech...

Today on the show: election season is here, inflation may be back, Fed trades are getting messy, and Patrick Ruffini joins Eventual to talk polling error, midterm markets, low-propensity voters, and whether summer Senate polls are giving traders the wrong signal. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start by getting into the head of the median voter: McDonald’s, Bud Light, Monster Energy, gas prices, data...

Trump’s revenge tour, pardon markets, political arrest markets, Todd Blanche’s future at the Justice Department, and new legal trouble for prediction markets after a major Ninth Circuit fight involving Kalshi. Alex Keeney breaks down a short but packed episode covering the U.S. Open, Fed rate markets, Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, Congress returning to Washington, and the court decision that...

Kevin Warsh heads to Jackson Hole, oil risk is back in the Fed conversation, Ukraine’s drone campaign is hitting Russia’s fuel supply, and prediction market regulation is entering a new phase. Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell to break down the latest action across macro, geopolitics, prediction markets, and regulation. The show starts with small talk on Meta’s $18 billion settlement, the fut...

Today on the show: South Carolina votes, Darline Graham and Ralph Norman are locked in a high-stakes GOP Senate fight, Canada trade war markets are moving, Scott Jennings shares are under review, and Ben Schreckinger joins Zoltar for a wild deep dive on UFOs, UAPs, alien disclosure, and prediction market rules. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden start with South Carolina for quants. With voting underway...

Today on the show: fake polls are back, longshots are alive, Darline Graham hits a rough patch in South Carolina, U.S. debt tops $40 trillion, and prediction market traders have plenty to sort through before September’s midterm trading wave. Alex Keeney is joined by Domer to break down the latest action across politics, elections, debt markets, and Polymarket. The show starts with small talk on Wh...

Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the return of fake polling as a prediction market risk, Florida election markets around Byron Donalds, James Fishback, and Cory Mills, and what traders should watch as political markets become more vulnerable to manipulation. Then Luke Kawa joins to discuss Robinhood’s prediction market boom, retail trading and WallStreetBets, AI capex and tech debt, Anthrop...

Welcome to Eventual, your OG prediction market show. Today: Marco Rubio vs. AOC in the 2028 nomination markets, inflation and Fed rate odds, the Lakers sale, the Clacton by-election, and a special election forecasting conversation with Lakshya Jain and Domer. Alex Keeney and Domer break down the latest market action, including how traders are reacting to inflation data, what to watch in Clacton, a...

Today on the show: AI bubble trouble, inflation week, Wisconsin and South Carolina primary night, Fed rate odds, and Jon Turek of JST Advisors joins to talk Anthropic, macro markets, prediction market distributions, and the future of the AI boom. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the biggest markets moving right now. First: inflation. With the July inflation report coming next week, oil-pric...

Iran diplomacy may be gaining momentum, the Strait of Hormuz could be headed toward a new security arrangement, and the Senate’s path to passing major crypto legislation is looking increasingly uncertain. Alex Keeney and Domer break down the prediction markets around Rep. Max Miller’s political future, an Israel–Iran ceasefire, U.S.–Iran negotiations, Hormuz traffic, Houthi escalation, and the odd...

Michigan, Midterms, and the Latino Swing Vote Alex Keeney and Gaetan Dugas discuss the prediction markets around Iran, Todd Blanche’s confirmation, Max Miller’s reelection campaign, and upcoming elections in Michigan and Minnesota. Logan Phillips of Race to the White House breaks down Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary and the general election outlook. Mike Madrid, author of The Latino Century,...

Alex Keeney and Domer break down a chaotic week across politics, crypto, and geopolitics, joined by trader Scott Alicious (David Bensousan) for a rapid-fire top-five trades segment, and Doug Campbell for a deep dive on Iran. Markets & topics discussed: (00:00) Cold open — Fed decision, Iran war, the Clarity Act, Todd Blanche's AG nomination, and Leopold Aschenbrenner's blown-out net worth (01:39)...

Today on the show: it’s officially under 100 days until the 2026 midterms, and both parties are panicking. Republicans are facing enthusiasm problems, Democrats are dealing with money trouble and internal drama, and prediction markets are trying to price the chaos.  Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest midterm markets, including control of the House and Senate, Democratic and Republi...

Today on the show: the Federal Reserve heads into one of its most unpredictable meetings in years, Polymarket traders face massive rate-decision exposure, Marine Le Pen is suddenly back in the French presidential mix, and Roman Terekh from Bravado joins to break down five prediction market shockers.  Alex Keeney and Pratik Chougule dig into the Fed’s July rate decision market, where nearly $90 mil...