Uncle Jim’s World of Bonds

Uncle Jim’s 2022 Bond Market Outlook 16.12.2021 37:53 ↓

The Fed, inflation, policy errors, recession, credit, emerging markets, Bitcoin.

Francis Fukuyama and The End of History 07.12.2021 12:03 ↓

A look back at this really important and interesting book from 25 years ago.

Last US Employment Report of 2021: Something For Everyone? 03.12.2021 9:48 ↓

And what are inverting yield curves telling us?

Bad News on Vaccines: Risk Off Again. And BRICS. 30.11.2021 8:44 ↓

The Moderna CEO was pretty negative on the Omicron outlook today. Also, BRICS revisited.

Covid: Treasuries Rally & Credit Weak on New Variant. 26.11.2021 8:00 ↓

Emerging markets also lower on South African variant news.

Powell vs Brainard: Winner Announced Today? 22.11.2021 8:18 ↓

Biden will appoint the next Fed Chair before he goes on holiday tomorrow.

U.K. Furlough Ends, But Employment Grows 16.11.2021 8:56 ↓

Great news from the U.K. labour market. But it puts a Bank of England Rate hike back in play.

US Inflation: Highest for 30 Years 11.11.2021 10:58 ↓

6.2% rise in consumer prices surprised economists. And pretty much every component of inflation is running hot.

China’s 🇨🇳 High Yield Market Turmoil Accelerates. And Real Bond Yields Hit Record Lows. 09.11.2021 8:54 ↓

A Chinese property developer is downgraded to Junk, and the whole HY market falls, again. The HY index is down 30% since the summer.

COP26 - A Conversation With Climate Solutions Investor Randeep Somel. 05.11.2021 21:31 ↓

Carbon taxes, politics, greenflation and more.

Scenes on Threadneedle Street. 04.11.2021 8:25 ↓

No Bank of England rate hike. Big gilt rally even as the Fed announces the QE taper.

Australia & Italy - Central Banks Waving Goodbye? 03.11.2021 8:54 ↓

Yield Curve Control ended by the RBA in Australia 🇦🇺, ECB ending the PEPP next year.

Back to Normal for the U.K. 🇬🇧? 01.11.2021 6:43 ↓

Will the Bank of England hike this week? And if so why did gilts rally so much last week?

US 🇺🇸 Entering Recession Now? 22.10.2021 7:10 ↓

Bryson & Blanchflower think so in a new economic paper. Gulp.

🚨 Policy Error Alert 🚨 19.10.2021 8:37 ↓

Are central banks about to make a terrible mistake by hiking rates too soon, or does the inflation outlook justify higher interest rates?

1980s: The Latin American Debt Crisis 18.10.2021 11:38 ↓

A look a Federal Reserve blog on that crisis. Also, the US yield curve starts to flatten…recession ahead?

Nobel Prizes And Other Academic Stuff 12.10.2021 10:15 ↓

Includes the new ECB paper on consumption post Covid.

Jobs Weak, Bonds Weak 11.10.2021 8:39 ↓

Non Farm Payrolls disappointed again, but bond yields had another poor week.

Is the USA’s Sovereign Credit Rating Useful? 07.10.2021 9:21 ↓

Gas, debt ceilings and the 2011 S&P US sovereign rating downgrade.

Credit: Default Rates Still Falling, But Spreads Starting To Move Higher? 05.10.2021 8:53 ↓

Corporate bonds have outperformed government bonds in 2021. How much further can that go?

Biden’s in Trouble: The GOP Smells Blood 01.10.2021 7:53 ↓

The US has managed to delay running out of $ from October to December. But the chances of Biden’s big stimulus bills getting passed unscathed look bleak now.

Stagflation 29.09.2021 8:20 ↓

Feels a bit like the 1970s, doesn’t it?

US 🇺🇸 Default on 20th October? 27.09.2021 11:41 ↓

Forget Evergrande - might America default next month?

Bond Market Sell-off: Bank of England Triggers 10 bps+ Yield Spike 24.09.2021 8:51 ↓

Government bond yields rise. And still no sign of the Evergrande coupon payment on the $ bonds…

Is Evergrande Contagious? 21.09.2021 10:59 ↓

More on the expected Chinese property default. Also, today sees the U.K. launch a green gilt.