The Weekly Rebalance

🚨 The Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years, and the 30-year Treasury yield fell. 📉💬 Tell us in the comments: does today look more like 1999 or 2004?Nick and Ethan explain the post-hike bear flattening. The short end rose while 10-, 20- and 30-year yields dropped roughly 5–7 bps in a week. 🧭 They cover why markets read it as a "credibility hike," 🏠 what it means for ~7% m...

🎲 The bond market says a rate hike tomorrow is a near-lock at 92% — but betting markets have it at a coin flip. That gap is the real story of this episode. Nick, Ethan, and returning guest Garrett break down what's driving the divergence: hot CPI data, a resilient labor market, and a 30-year Treasury yield that's actually falling even as short-term rates rise. 🏦Then things get fun: the c...

🚨 Schwab just quietly rolled out fractional share trading to financial advisors — no fanfare, no press tour, just a huge unlock for SMAs. Nick and Ethan break down why this is a bigger deal than it looks. 📉 Markets first: the 10-year Treasury yield is flirting with 5%, the ECB just hiked, and a stronger-than-expected jobs report has the Fed's next move (and Chair Warsh's independence) sq...

🚨 Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech — delivered on his 100th day in office — moved rate-hike odds by 20% in just 30 minutes. That's the surprise nobody was pricing in. This week Nick & Ethan break down what's really happening under the hood of markets: light September volatility (📉 S&P -71bps, small caps -1.2%) opening up tax-loss harvesting windows, Nvidia's post-ear...

Wolf of Wall Street is more fiction than fact — but Nick's #2 pick nails 2008 almost too well. 🎬📉 This week Nick and Ethan trade the spreadsheets for the popcorn, ranking seven classic Wall Street movies (Big Short, Margin Call, Too Big to Fail, Wolf of Wall Street, Trading Places, Wall Street, Dumb Money) on realism vs. entertainment — then tie every single one back to today's markets,...

Waste Management just traded at nearly the same P/E ratio as NVIDIA (31.83 vs. 33) — and once you see the moat behind it, it makes total sense. This week Nick and Ethan open with a wild market day (S&P/Nasdaq/Dow all green, Moderna up 175%, and active-portfolio names Mastercard, Ferrari, and Rivian popping 📈), then dig into the Fed's hawkish-leaning minutes ahead of Kevin Warsh's Jack...

🚀 The surprising insight this week: SpaceX isn't really an "IPO stock" — it's quietly becoming AI infrastructure landlord to its own competitors, with Anthropic reportedly paying north of $1B/month to lease its Colossus data center. Nick and Ethan break down markets at all-time highs (S&P +12.84% YTD 📈), a blockbuster earnings season, and softening labor data that's res...

🚨 Surprising twist: the market breadth everyone's been waiting for might finally be here — and the bond market is throwing a tantrum about it. We're back from a summer hiatus and diving straight into a stacked episode! 📊 First, we break down why Russell 2000 and Emerging Markets are up ~20% YTD, why the equal-weight S&P is finally beating the market-cap version, and why forward P/E c...

🚀 The surprising insight this week: AI may be here to stay, but the price investors pay still matters. In Weekly Rebalance #38, Ethan and Garrett break down SpaceX volatility, Micron’s sharp move lower, and why richly valued tech names can swing hard when expectations get questioned. They also discuss the US-Iran conflict’s impact on inflation, the K-shaped economy, and why dividend aristocrats h...

A surprising insight from this week: high-net-worth investors are treating real assets, collectibles, and alternatives as a serious portfolio allocation—not just a hobby. 📈 In Weekly Rebalance #37, Nick and Ethan break down a volatile market backdrop: strong jobs data, higher yields, inflation pressure, the Fed’s next move, geopolitical risk, and the latest expectations around the SpaceX IPO. 🚀...

🎰 Sports betting is exploding in popularity, but are gambling stocks actually good investments? This week, Nicholas and Garrett break down why companies like DraftKings and other betting platforms are still struggling to consistently turn profits despite billions flowing into sports gambling. 📉📈We also cover the latest market rally, surging small caps, semiconductor momentum, consumer sentiment...

📈 Treasury yields are surging — but data center REITs are still riding the AI wave. In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Nick and Ethan break down the growing tension between rising borrowing costs and massive AI infrastructure demand. We cover why REITs are highly interest-rate sensitive, the bull vs. bear case for data center REITs, and how companies like Equinix, Digital Realty, and Iron M...

🚨 Markets are hitting fresh highs—but is a major Fed regime change about to reshape everything? In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Ethan Dunbar and Nicholas Cargill break down the surprising strength in equities, AI and semiconductor momentum, emerging market leadership, and the growing uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve. 📈 They dive into Kevin Warsh’s potential impact on monetary...

🚨 The market staged a massive reversal this week, with the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs while concerns around private credit continue to grow. In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, Nick and Ethan break down the surprising strength in earnings season, Disney’s consumer signals, the Fed’s historic 8-4 vote split, and why private credit may face its first real stress test. 📈💳We also d...

Markets are hitting new highs—but beneath the surface, the economy is splitting in two 📉📈. In this episode, we break down the K-shaped economy, where wealthy consumers drive growth while others rely on buy now, pay later just to keep up. We cover strong earnings (80% beats), AI-driven growth, and why markets are ignoring geopolitical risks like $110 oil. Then we dig into the real story: rising c...

Cannabis stocks look cheap—but the real reason might surprise you. 🌿📉 In this episode, we break down the massive tax burden (280E) that’s crushing profitability across the cannabis industry and why a potential shift from Schedule I to Schedule III could change everything. We also cover the broader market rebound, NASDAQ’s historic run, and why investors may be underestimating both opportunity an...

The market just erased a geopolitical shock in 32 days—and history says that’s not unusual. 📈In this episode, we break down the rapid recovery following the Iran conflict and why markets often rebound faster than investors expect. From S&P performance to VIX compression and energy sector reversals, we connect real-time data with historical precedents like 9/11 and the Gulf War. We also dig in...

The surprising reality? Most IPO investors underperform—even when the biggest names hit the market. 📉This week, we break down rising market volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and what it means for investors right now. Then we dive into the 2026 IPO pipeline—OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic—and answer the key question: should you actually buy on day one? We unpack the data behind IPO performance,...

Growth stocks just got a lot more interesting—and maybe a lot cheaper. 📉➡️📈 In this week’s Rebalance, we break down a volatile Q1 where the NASDAQ briefly entered correction territory, yet high-quality names like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are now trading at surprisingly attractive valuations. We dive into what’s driving the selloff, why value and international held up better, and wheth...

Recession-proof stocks might not be what you expect… 👀 In this episode, we break down why true luxury brands like Ferrari and Hermes can outperform during downturns—while “aspirational luxury” gets hit hard. We cover the latest market selloff, inflation pressures from oil, and then dive into a powerful framework: true vs premium vs aspirational luxury—and why it matters for portfolio construction...

Gold is supposed to be the ultimate safe haven—so why hasn’t it acted like one? 🤔 In this episode, we break down the surprising behavior of gold and defense stocks during recent geopolitical tensions, and what it actually means for portfolios. We cover market volatility, international outperformance, and why defense stocks (historically strong post-conflict) are suddenly flat. Then we dive into g...

Markets turned volatile this week as geopolitical tensions with Iran pushed oil prices higher and triggered a surprising shift between value and growth stocks. 📉📈 In The Weekly Rebalance #25, Ethan and Nick break down what’s really happening beneath the surface of the markets. Value stocks have dominated in 2026 so far, but recent volatility has sparked a temporary shift toward growth. The conve...

Markets opened the week with major volatility after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran—but the surprising takeaway might be how quickly markets historically recover from geopolitical shocks. 📉➡️📈 In this episode of The Weekly Rebalance, we break down the market reaction, including oil’s surge, gold’s unexpected drop, and why tech held up better than expected. We also analyze the Strait of Hormuz r...

🚨 The biggest surprise in markets right now? AI may be boosting industrials, energy, and infrastructure more than Big Tech itself. In The Weekly Rebalance #24, we break down the major market rotation happening early in 2026. While mega-cap tech faces pressure, sectors tied to the AI infrastructure buildout—industrials, energy, materials, and data center REITs—are surging. We also explore the unex...

Surprising insight: After fees, a 100% downside buffered ETF may only offer ~1% more than a 1-year Treasury—if markets cooperate. 📉➡️📈In Episode 23 of The Weekly Rebalance, Nick and Ethan break down buffered ETFs (defined outcome ETFs)—how they’re built (long call + long put + short call), how caps and downside protection work, and why RIAs are increasingly using them as Treasury or bond ladder...