The Weekly Fix

New GDP data shows economic growth, but labor market and political risks keep markets on edge. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s US Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest economic data and key developments shaping markets. Second-quarter GDP revised to 3.8%, driven by strong consumer spending, while jobless claims fell, easing labor market concerns. This week’...

The Fed’s rate cut is in, just as the market expected – what’s next for the future of monetary policy? Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, economic projections, and what it all means for investors. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the target range to 4.00–4.25%, with projections showing stronger gro...

Can Fed policy ease the housing affordability crisis? Teri Savage, Senior Mortgage Trader with RBC BlueBay’s Fixed Income team, explores the pressures on the U.S. housing market and the potential impact of upcoming policy changes. Home prices continue to outpace income growth, while 30-year mortgage rates remain stubbornly above 6%, pushing affordability to record lows. The Federal Reserve is expe...

Senior portfolio manager Tim Leary discusses how weaker job growth and strong bond market activity, coupled with tight spreads, support expectations for a September rate cut and continued favorable conditions for fixed-income markets. Weaker job data and key events like Jackson Hole and August payrolls pave the way for a September rate cut. Strong technicals in the US bond markets persist, with si...

Corporate credit spreads are at historic lows – will September’s bond supply shake up the market? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, analyzes the tightest corporate bond spreads in decades and highlights potential opportunities. Investment-grade corporate bond spreads are near 80 bps over Treasuries, driven by strong demand despite slim risk compensation. With $130-...

Fed Chair Powell excited investors last Friday with hints of a potential September rate cut. What’s next for credit markets? Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s Fixed Income team, breaks down the market reaction to the Jackson Hole Symposium. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the potential for a September rate cut, citing balanced labor markets and easing inflation ri...

All eyes are on Jackson Hole this week as investors digest recent economic data and look ahead to the Fed’s next moves. Mindy Gudmundson, Institutional Portfolio Manager with RBC BlueBay’s U.S. Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest inflation data, rate cut expectations, and what to watch ahead of Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Headline inflation dipped to 2.7%, nearing the Fed’s target, b...

BlueBay Senior Trader Peter Keenan highlights key themes following the most recent inflation data release.  Inflation Data Overview : July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% month-over-month (headline) and 0.3% excluding food and energy, with year-over-year increases of 2.7% (headline) and 3.1% (core), aligning with expectations. Market and Fed Expectations : Markets now price a 96% chanc...

BlueBay Portfolio Manager Laurie Mount discusses how the fallout from Friday’s lousy jobs report could dominate Washington and Wall Street for some time. The July jobs report fell significantly below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added versus the forecasted 104,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, signaling a potential softening in the labor market. Treasuries rallied sharply, and...

Investment-grade bonds are having a strong year, but investors aren’t getting complacent. Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, discusses how portfolio managers are hedging their credit exposure despite a compelling market environment. Yields remain attractive, inflows are strong, and performance is solid—even with tight credit spreads. Managers are staying cautious, h...

Fed policy and credit markets are at a pivotal moment. Andrzej Skiba, BlueBay Head of U.S. Fixed Income, gives an update on monetary policy trends and their effects on the market: The Fed is unlikely to cut rates in July but may deliver 1-2 cuts by year-end, depending on trade developments and inflation trends. Treasury markets reflect expectations of more aggressive rate cuts under future Fed lea...

TACO trade or GAIN trade? Markets brace for tariffs and bank earnings. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, dives into the macro and trade themes driving markets as the summer lull in new issuance takes hold. Markets are eyeing the August 1st deadline for potential 30% tariffs on Europe, with optimism that a resolution will be reached. US GSIBs and regional bank...

As we pass the mid-year mark, @Andrzej Skiba, Head of BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income, breaks down how fixed income markets are shaping up for the second half of the year. With spreads at multi-year tights and bullish market positioning, the opportunity set is narrowing, but there’s still value to be found for active investors. From reallocating to sectors like insurance and utilities to exploring subor...

Don’t fight the Fed – or the American consumer. Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, highlights the resilience of the U.S. consumer, with cash balances at a record $21.7 trillion and credit card utilization rates back to normal. As High Yield bonds outperform and spreads tighten, the strength of the American consumer could drive inflows into credit markets, of...

Strong inflows. Low issuance. High cash balances. Peter Keenan, Senior Trader on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores why High Yield is holding strong. $5.3B in YTD inflows, led by fast-moving ETF money Limited new issuance – currently -18% vs. last year Elevated cash balances and muted dealer inventories If geopolitical risks ease and issuance remains slow, spreads could have room to tigh...

Debt ceiling drama. Bill curve dislocation. Fed in holding pattern. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest on debt ceiling negotiations and explains how the shrinking supply of Treasury bills is creating distortions in the bill curve, noting yields on some maturities topping 4.3%. With record cash in money market funds and the Fed expected to st...

Tight spreads. Strong demand. What gives? Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explains why Investment Grade credit is attracting yield-hungry investors despite spreads returning to their tighter range. He also highlights where sector dispersion is creating value and why active, selective positioning is essential in today’s market. It’s a bond buyer’s market, if you k...

Is the U.S. housing market cooling, or just normalizing? Eric Hathaway, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks the latest housing data, including the first national home price decline in over two years, and shares what it means for market participants. Despite affordability challenges and slower sales, mortgage-backed securities remain resilient, backed by healthy...

Tim Leary, senior portfolio manager on the BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, unpacks the tension between soaring defense spending, expanding social programs, and ballooning deficits. While some worry about the dollar’s status and long-term fiscal sustainability, Tim highlights why today’s bond market is offering real, risk-adjusted yield opportunities.

Moody’s just stripped the U.S. of its last remaining Aaa credit rating. But what does it actually mean for markets? Jeff D’Auria shares why the downgrade to Aa1 shouldn’t come as a surprise and, despite symbolic headlines, fundamentals and positioning tell a more nuanced story. With technicals strong and institutional demand holding steady, the bigger story may be how yield curve dynamics evolve a...

Trade headlines, tariffs, and central bank caution – this week brought no shortage of market-moving news. Laurie Mount, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, breaks down the latest: A new U.S.-UK trade deal (with more to come) A 90-day tariff pause with China The Fed’s “wait-and-see” approach amid rising inflation and employment risks With April CPI and retail data on deck, market...

It’s one of the riskiest trades hiding in plain sight: the Treasury basis trade. In today’s episode of The Weekly Fix, Neil Sun, Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, unpacks the Treasury basis trade and how it works, why it’s grown to a $600B+ behemoth, and what could go wrong. In a market built on leverage, even small cracks can cause big waves. Neil explains why regulators are...

After a volatile start to April, High Yield markets are regaining momentum. Peter Keenan, Senior Trader on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, discusses the rally off post-Liberation Day lows, what new issue performance tells us about investor demand, and why liquidity in the secondary market remains strong. With earnings season in full swing and Treasury yields swinging, Peter shares why patience a...

Tim Leary, Senior Portfolio Manager on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, puts it plainly: the market expected a tariff hammer and got a bulldozer. President Trump’s aggressive trade measures are shaking global markets, driving volatility in commodities, pressuring corporate margins, and prompting boardrooms to reassess guidance. But amid the noise, Tim highlights a resilient U.S. economy and a liq...

In a high-rate, high-volatility environment, floating rate loans still offer opportunity—if you know where to look. Madison Pozzi, Assistant Portfolio Manager & Trader on the BlueBay US Fixed Income team, explains how tariffs, supply chain surprises, and ETF selling are reshaping market dynamics—and why active management matters more than ever.