Suburb Data with Damien & Jeremy

Episode 13 asks whether time-in the market beats timing the market. We test a simple trading simulator that times entry by buying when Market Cycle Timing is high and times exit by selling when MCT normalises. The simulator includes all entry and exit costs. Trading is then compared with holding long-term. Across SA3 regions and multiple eras, trading beat holding long-term, with a success rate be...

Episode 12 argues for a short term, data led focus. Most outperformance happens in bursts, long term leaders tend to revert, and rotating into the next tight market can beat buy and hold even after costs. We show how modern forecasting and timely market metrics lift your hit rate, while long range bets are unreliable and exposed to unknown future technologies. The takeaway is clear. Capture short...

Episode 11 shows why long term outperformance is a myth. National multi-decade historical data shows extremes fade. Markets converge to the long-term average. The growth leaders of the past become the laggards of the future as buyer focus shifts to better value. The takeaway is to avoid betting on a permanent edge. But if you must, favour houses over units, old over new, and avoid supply-heavy vac...

Episode 10 dismantles the idea that strong past growth predicts strong future growth. We show why backtesting single properties is misleading, explain that features set price rather than growth, and reveal a clear inverse relationship in the data when you group suburbs by their last 10 to 20 years of performance. Markets that have run hard tend to slow as higher prices dampen demand, while laggard...

Episode 9 debunks the idea of the knockout bid at auction. We show why large, dramatic jumps do not scare bidders who still have room in their budget and why the highest budget wins, not the boldest call. Clear examples reveal how a knockout bid can backfire by pushing the price above the minimum needed, costing the buyer thousands. We set a simple test for anyone claiming the tactic works: prove...

Episode 8 busts the myth that you make money when you buy. We show why purchase is a cost-heavy entry point with stamp duty, conveyancing, inspections, time and often repairs, so returns come from holding through capital growth and rent. We explain why buying under market value usually signals a weak market where supply beats demand, why the price you pay becomes the new market value in the valuer...

Episode 7 shows there is no such thing as depreciation “benefits”. Depreciation is a detriment, not a benefit. We explain what depreciation really is, the unavoidable loss in a building’s value, and why tax deductions do not make you richer. Clear examples show how a $10,000 claim might cut your tax by $4,000 yet still leave you $6,000 worse off, and how Division 43 claims reduce your cost base an...

Episode 6 challenges the idea that higher wages drive higher capital growth. Using ABS census data across all suburbs since 1991, we group markets by household income and by income growth over 5 to 25 years and find no consistent link to future price gains. The flaw is practical as well as statistical. Buyers can come from anywhere, census incomes are lagged and noisy, and borrowing capacity depen...

Episode 5 tackles the myth that buying closer to the CBD delivers superior capital growth. We unpack why past reports misled investors through tiny samples, uneven suburb spacing and single time frames, then replicate their methods across later periods to show the result often reverses. We widen the analysis to thousands of suburbs across major cities and find no enduring link between distance to...

Episode 4 busts the idea that buying near amenities delivers superior results. We compare suburbs with train stations, top schools, beaches, major shopping centres and airports over decades, and also rank suburbs by walk score, finding that price premiums do not translate into better capital growth or yield over time. Where a new amenity appears, any uplift is brief as prices adjust. We also test...

Episode 3 tests the new versus old theory and shows why depreciation is not a benefit but a cost that only reduces tax while the building falls in value and the land rises. Through clear examples comparing land to asset ratios, cash flow, vacancy, stamp duty and grants, we show the growth gap still favours established homes with more of the price in the land. We confirm this with Queensland sales...

Episode 2 of the Expert Busting Series examines the idea of buying under market value. We explain the difference between negotiating on price and buying below fair value, which is set by recent comparable sales and used by banks and valuers. We also show why the price you pay becomes the new market value, limiting the usefulness of so-called discounts. This episode covers: How advertised discounts...

The Expert Busting Series is Suburb Data’s new program that tests common property advice against hard data. In episode 1, we examine the popular claim that population growth drives capital growth at the suburb level. The data shows the opposite: strong population forecasts usually signal new supply, not rising demand. We break down how population forecasts are created, how planned dwellings feed i...

The Expert Busting Series is here — a data-driven look at the biggest myths in property. In this intro, Jeremy shares how trusting the wrong “experts” cost him around $1 million in lost opportunity and why this series exists: to separate real research from marketing hype. You’ll learn: • Why so much property advice is flawed. • How investors get misled. • What actually drives capital growth. • How...

In this episode, we dive into the 3rd part of our accounting series with Dom from DPR Accountants 🧮 This time we cover depreciation, repairs, and capital works for property investors. We explain what you can and can’t claim, how quantity surveyors fit in, and why renovations, extensions, and upgrades can change your tax outcome. We also talk about ownership splits, new build traps, and why second...

Dom from DPR Accountants is back as we unpack trusts versus companies for property investors. We show when each structure makes sense, how the tax actually lands, and the traps to avoid. You will hear about CGT discounts, dividends and franking credits, land tax from the first dollar in some states, quarantined trust losses, corporate trustees and bucket companies, borrowing and serviceability, pl...

Dom from DPR Accountants joins us for part one of our three part accounting series. We break down owning property in your own name. Joint tenants versus tenants in common. Partnerships and land tax surprises. How negative gearing can turn positive and when to time a capital gain. Smart loan structuring like splitting debt between partners, using offsets and PAYG variations to smooth cash flow. Plu...

Join us for Episode 50 as we rewind two years of wins, misses, and market shifts. We unpack the new 5% deposit scheme. We cover LMI, serviceability, and the risk of juicing demand. We compare rentvesting and borderless buying with “buy in your backyard.” We call out the life-coach property hype. We show why DSR3 matters, where Darwin, Perth, and parts of Melbourne are heating up, and how yields an...

Are buyer’s agents worth it right now or mostly clever marketing? 🏡 We unpack what a buyer’s agent actually does, where they add real value, and the traps to watch like bias, glossy reports, and chasing off market or under market value. We compare Perth’s surge with Melbourne’s flat patch, share a real case study of a unit that went backwards over nearly ten years, and explain when to use a local...

We are back with another Q&A answering the questions you have sent through 🙌 We cover depreciation myths and why new builds often underperform, the big yield versus growth debate, units in big cities, and whether Perth is still worth buying into. We also talk about SMSFs, red flag awards, and the strategies that really drive long term results. If you have ever wondered if it is too late to st...

It’s finally here DSR 3! 🚀 In this episode, we reveal the brand-new version of our Demand to Supply Ratio algorithm and show you how it stacks up against the old models. From why we built it from scratch and why it’s a big leap forward in predicting capital growth, we cover it all. Plus, we take you on a tour of the new Suburb Data platform. Heat-maps, historical charts, context rulers, and our n...

Is there really such a thing as the perfect suburb? 🏡 In this episode, we bust the myth and talk about why chasing perfection can lead to analysis paralysis and missed opportunities. From cherry-picked “hotspot” reports to buyer’s agents with blinkers on, we share why every suburb has trade-offs and what really matters when weighing up growth, cash flow and risk.   Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Int...

Old-school advice told us to "buy near the CBD" and "chase high income areas" but does the data actually back that up? In this episode, we dig into why data and tech are changing the property game, how smart investors are using it to make better calls, and why clinging to outdated ideas could be costing you 💥   Episode Highlights: 00:00 - Introduction 00:31 - The problem with old school investing...

This week we’re building on last episode’s foundations and diving into smart scaling, how to balance growth vs yield, how to avoid emotional traps, and whether chasing “undervalued” deals is actually costing you 💸 Damien fires off rapid-fire questions while Jeremy drops some spicy truths (including his early mistakes!). Whether you’re a new investor or scaling up, this one's packed with practical...

What makes a suburb really worth investing in? In this episode, we chat about the key ingredients of a high-performing property. From suburb selection and asset quality to emotional traps and the overhyped “blue chip” myth. Grab a coffee and tune in for a no-BS chat full of tips, laughs and a bit of expert busting. Let us know your biggest property investing lesson in the comments!   Episode Highl...