Nakajima Quant Desk - English

📊 A deep dive into Japan's Q2 2026 GDP Second Preliminary Estimate from the Cabinet Office. Real GDP was revised up from +0.3% to +0.4% QoQ (annualized +1.1% to +1.4%). 📉 But beneath the headline, domestic demand contribution stayed negative. Private capex fell for a second straight quarter, and housing/public investment were revised down. 💡 On the bright side, real compensation of employe...

📊 This week's three key US macro reports, explained. Initial jobless claims held at a historically low 206,000, signaling labor market resilience. 📈 But the Fed's overnight reverse repo buffer has drained to just $525 million weekly, while Treasury's cash rebuild squeezed bank reserves by $287 billion year-over-year. ⚠️ Energy supply stayed firm even as demand softened 4% YoY. 💡...

📊 US nonfarm payrolls surged +162,000 in August, far outpacing the prior 12-month average of just 31,000. ✅ June and July payrolls revised up a combined +55,000 ✅ Unemployment held steady at 4.1%, part-time-for-economic-reasons fell 414,000 ⚠️ But the Information sector shed 23,000 jobs and teen unemployment jumped to 14.1% 💡 A broadening, resilient labor market—but with pockets of weakness. W...

📊 The US goods & services trade deficit widened 24.4% to $88.6B in July 2026, up $17.4B from June, per the Census Bureau and BEA (FT-900). 📈 The standout: capital goods imports surged $14.4B in a single month — computers +$6.9B, computer accessories +$6.6B, semiconductors +$1.2B — pointing to an AI/data-center capex boom. YTD computer imports have nearly doubled YoY. 📉 Exports fell $6.6B, d...

📊 Broadcom (AVGO) reported fiscal Q3 2026 results: revenue of $29.6B (+86% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.32 (+96% YoY) — both record highs. 🚀 The engine: AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7B, up 221% YoY and 54% QoQ. ⚠️ But infrastructure software grew just 29%, revealing rising concentration risk on a single AI-driven segment. 💡 Q4 guidance calls for $34.8B in revenue (+93% YoY). Whether AI deman...

📊 A deep dive into the Fed's July Beige Book. Districts reporting solid job gains jumped from just 1 last time to 5 this cycle, while price growth cooled or held steady across all 12 Districts. 📈 A rare Fed-friendly combo: labor market resilience plus broadening disinflation. ⚠️ But Minneapolis and Richmond show firms struggling to pass through cost increases, squeezing margins. Consumer sp...

📊 The U.S. Census Bureau's July durable goods report shows total new orders at $663.6B, up 0.9% and rebounding from two straight monthly declines. 📈 Core capital goods shipments — the real-time gauge of capex execution — rose over 1% for a second consecutive month. ⚠️ But core capital goods orders, the forward-looking proxy for business investment, came in essentially flat after May and Jun...

The Bank of Japan released July 2026 Monetary Base data on Aug 4. The year-on-year decline widened to -13.8%, the 11th straight month of deepening contraction. 📉 Current account balances fell -16.6% and reserve balances -15.3%, confirming BOJ's quantitative tightening is proceeding on schedule via reduced JGB purchases. Meanwhile, banknotes in circulation fell only -1.9% — cash demand itself...

📊 A deep dive into the July 2026 JOLTS report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Job openings rose slightly to 7.3 million. But hires fell 278,000, quits dropped 157,000, and the quits rate slipped to 1.9%. 📉 Layoffs also fell by 119,000, pointing to a synchronized slowdown in both hiring and firing -- a "low-churn" labor market. 💡 Healthcare stayed hot at a 5.7% openings rate,...

📊 Japan's Cabinet Office reported the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 35.5 in August, up 0.6pt for a 4th straight month. 📈 The durable-goods buying-time sub-index jumped 1.9pt to its highest since February. 📉 But income growth and employment expectations both declined for the first time in months. Expectations for 5%+ inflation plunged 6.0pt. 💡 We break down the split between headline i...

📊 Deep dive into Brazil's weekly Focus Market Readout survey (data as of Aug 28, 2026). Selic rate forecasts are unchanged across every horizon, with the 2029 estimate flat at 10.00% for 17 straight weeks. 📉 Yet the 2026 IPCA inflation forecast remains at 5.01%, still above the BCB's 4.5% tolerance ceiling. GDP growth was cut for a second week, and fiscal deficit forecasts widened too....

📊 Deep dive into Japan's July 2026 Industrial Production Index (preliminary) released by METI. Production rose 0.1% MoM, marking a 4th straight monthly gain, yet the official assessment remains "flat/directionless." 💡 Beneath the surface weakness, semiconductor manufacturing equipment output surged +45.3% YoY, and capital goods shipments jumped +13.5% YoY—signaling robust capex mo...

📊 This week (Aug 23-30), the RBA and Riksbank both held rates with hawkish undertones, while new Fed Chair Warsh signaled at Jackson Hole that easing won't come easily. 📈 US personal income stayed resilient even as consumer sentiment plunged to 51.7. In Japan, Tokyo core CPI accelerated for a second month and payroll employment extended a 53-month streak. 💡 A week of strength and weakness...

This week's top 3 US macro releases, explained📊 💼 Labor: Initial jobless claims at 203K — near historic lows, though the 4-week average is drifting up📈 🛢️ Energy: WTI crude jumped to $87.21/bbl, up 36% YoY. Distillate inventories are 14% below the 5-year average⚠️ 🏦 Fed Liquidity: Balance sheet roughly flat, but the reverse repo cushion has shrunk to just $362B💡 Labor, energy, and liquid...

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address. 📊 Capex surged 9% YoY and S&P 500 profits jumped over 20%, showing real economic resilience. ⚠️ Yet PCE inflation sits at 3.7%, with 54% of price components still rising above 3%. 💡 Warsh declared he's abandoning forward guidance, favoring "discipline, not decision." We break down what this means for rates, ma...

📊 University of Michigan's final August Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.7, down 6.3% MoM and 11.2% YoY. 📉 Both current conditions and expectations weakened, with Republicans, older, and lower/middle-income households hit hardest. 💡 Yet 1-year inflation expectations eased from 4.2% to 4.0%, and 5-year expectations held at 3.3% for a third straight month. ⚠️ This mixed signal of weak...

📊 A deep dive into Japan's Tokyo-area CPI for August 2026, released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) on August 28, 2026. Headline CPI +1.9%, core (ex-fresh food) +1.8%, and core-core (ex-fresh food & energy) +2.0%—all accelerating from July. 💡 Notably, core-core inflation accelerated even as energy prices fell 2.0% year-on-year, and now exceeds the latest nat...

📊 Eurostat's July 31 flash estimate shows euro area annual inflation accelerating to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June. 🔥 The main driver: energy prices, whose annual rate jumped from 8.5% to 10.0%. 💡 Meanwhile, core inflation (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) held steady at 2.2%, suggesting underlying pressures haven't intensified. ⚠️ Services inflation ticked up from 3.2% to 3.3%, a...

The Bank of Japan held its policy rate steady at around 1.0%, with Board Member Takata's proposal to hike to 1.25% rejected by majority vote. 📊 Governor Ueda stated the BOJ needs to be "more mindful than ever" of upside inflation risks. ⚠️ He explicitly said the BOJ aims to avoid being "behind the curve." 📈 The Outlook Report expanded risk factors from one (Middle East t...

📊Statistics Norway (SSB) released its latest M3 monetary aggregate data. Overall money-holding sector growth slowed to 6.9% in June from 8.8% in February. ⚠️The real story: non-financial corporations' M3 growth nearly halved, from 7.0% in March to 3.5% in June. 📈Meanwhile, other financial corporations held steady at 11-12% growth. 💡This widening gap between the real economy and the financi...

📊 A deep dive into the Bank of Japan's July 31, 2026 Outlook Report. The FY2026 core CPI forecast was cut to +2.5%, down 0.3pt from April's +2.8%. 📉 But the downgrade is driven by a temporary government energy subsidy — the core-core measure (ex-energy) was barely revised, down just 0.1pt. 📈 Meanwhile, real GDP was revised UP to +0.6%, supported by robust global AI-related demand. 💡...

A deep dive into the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest Table D3 monetary aggregates. 📊 Broad Money grew +7.98% YoY (seasonally adjusted), up from +5.28% in June 2024 — a 3-year acceleration to the highest level in the observable window. 📈 M3 reaccelerated to +0.77% MoM in June from just +0.35% in May. ⚠️ Meanwhile, money market corporations' borrowings fell -4.95% and other authorised...

Tokyo's July CPI (mid-month flash estimate) showed headline, core, and core-core inflation all accelerating from June. 📊 Headline CPI: +2.0% YoY (up from +1.7%) 📊 Core-core CPI: +2.0%, touching the BOJ's target level (up from +1.9%) 💡 Tokyo data leads the national print by about a month, and this reading already exceeds the nation's most recent confirmed June figures. ⚠️ However,...

Japan's Statistics Bureau released the June 2026 Labor Force Survey. 📊 The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate held at 2.5% for a 7th straight month, reflecting historically tight labor conditions. But cracks are emerging. 📉 Seasonally adjusted employment fell -360K month-on-month, and the hospitality sector — long a symbol of labor shortage — reversed into decline. 💡 Regular employment...

📊 A deep dive into Japan's May 2026 Industrial Production Index (IIP) confirmed report from METI. Production, shipments, inventories, and the inventory ratio were all revised down from the flash estimate, with pharmaceuticals and food items emerging as hidden drags. 📉 Production capacity has now contracted YoY for 27 straight months, while the operating ratio rose for the first time in 4 mo...