Moody's Talks - Inside Economics

Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report and Washington’s “election oracle,” joins the Inside Economics crew to preview the upcoming midterm elections. Charlie shares how he got his start, the story behind founding the Cook Political Report, and how he became one of the most trusted voices in election forecasting. He then digs into the dynamics of the House race and the key Senate contes...

Big news: Mark became a grandpa, and unlike most data this week, this one won’t be revised. Mark, Marisa, Cris, and colleague Matt Colyar digest the bevy of data released this week, including GDP, PCE, spending, income, and the employment cost index. Mark makes the case for future weakness in spending and growth due to negative real incomes and low saving rates. The rest of the team points out wha...

Inside Economics closes out its AI series with a rare live taping at the Economic Outlook Conference in New York City. Drawing on lessons from earlier episodes—and plenty of input from the audience—Marisa, Cris, and Mark weigh AI's promise against its perils. The verdict: fears of mass job losses are fading, replaced by worries that AI is inflating a bubble in stock and credit markets. Read The Ma...

John Toohig of Raymond James joins Mark and Cris to tell the whole story on whole loan trading and what it says about the health of bank lending. The conversation covers consumer credit, mortgages, and commercial real estate. Activity was strong in the first half of 2026 and weak in the second.  John explains why next year may flip the script given high rates. The discussion concludes with co...

John Leer, Chief Economist at Morning Consult, joins Inside Economics to discuss the mood of the consumer. John shares some interesting nuggets from Morning Consult’s survey, including differences in sentiment across regions, how consumers are feeling about AI and data centers, the job market, the War in Iran, and what this may mean for the upcoming Midterm Elections. Matt Colyar also makes an app...

The global economy is being buffeted by a seemingly endless series of shocks—from U.S. tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine war to turmoil in the Middle East. Who better to explain what it all means than our colleague Gaurav Ganguly, who leads our team of international economists. The conversation begins with Gaurav acing Mark’s stock market quiz and ends with a look at what the political shift to the r...

Dante joined the Inside Economics crew to discuss the September employment report, which told a more consistent story of a soft labor market. The team also dove into the bevy of other economic data released this week, including GDP, inflation, income, and spending. Recent data revisions were a recurring theme throughout the discussion, but in the end, the balance of revisions does not fundamentall...

Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa and The Wall Street Journal’s Most Accurate Forecaster of 2025, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the state of the economy with a focus on consumer spending. Despite a similar forecast for next year, Wayne is slightly more sanguine than the Inside Economics team about the durability of consumer spending. The discussion then leads to a surprising and fas...

Originally published on May 1st, 2026. Peter McCrory, the Head of Economics at AI juggernaut Anthropic, joins the Inside Economics team to consider all things AI and the economy. The discussion begins with how the group is using Claude in our work, then shifts to AI’s current and expected lift to productivity, and to the underappreciated economic ramifications of AI. It turns out that Lancaster PA...

The Fed met this week and gave the Inside Economics crew a lot to talk about. Joining the fray are three colleagues, Martin Wurm, Justin Begley, and Matt Colyar. Opinions varied on the wisdom of September’s rate hike, how much of an attempt it was to signal Chair Warsh’s independence from the White House, and the likelihood that more hikes are in tow. The group plays the numbers game and debates w...

Ben Harris, Director of the Economic Studies Program at the Brookings Institution, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss his new research on how AI could shape the nation’s fiscal outlook. The bottom line: it’s complicated. AI has the potential to lift economic growth and ease pressure on the budget, but it won’t erase the difficult choices ahead on taxes, spending, and the nation’s long-term...

The Inside Economics team is joined by colleague and CPI guru Matt Colyar to discuss August's CPI inflation report, which came in a touch hotter than expected. Mark ranks his top four inflation culprits, and the team weighs in. Next week's Fed meeting is top of mind, and there's some disagreement about the likelihood of a Fed rate hike. Guest: Matt Colyar To access Mark and Matt's paper The Fed's...

In this episode of our AI series, Ara Kharazian, lead economist at fintech company Ramp, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the state of AI adoption. Drawing on Ramp’s real-time business spending data, Ara offers a unique view into which firms and industries are moving fastest, which are lagging, which LLMs are gaining traction, how token pricing is evolving, and what data center constrain...

Mark and Cris are joined by Dante to unpack the August employment report. While the headline number surprised to the upside, they agree it does little to change their view of underlying job growth. The discussion turns to the implications for monetary policy, including how renewed pressure from President Trump for rate cuts could factor into the Fed outlook. With Marisa away, the team skips the us...

Continuing the AI series, the Inside Economics team talks with ConstructConnect Chief Economist Michael Guckes about the data center boom. Michael’s granular view of the buildout sheds light on both the opportunities and risks, including whether financing has outpaced construction and whether cheaper AI models could leave some premium data centers stranded. And as a bonus, he has some thoughts on...

Stripe Chief Economist Ernie Tedeschi joins the Inside Economics team to separate the signal from the noise in a busy week for the economy and financial markets. The group discusses Kevin Warsh's recent speech and the market's reaction, unpacks the latest PCE inflation data and what it means for the Fed, and explores the remarkable surge in business formations. Are more Americans becoming entrepre...

Capital Group economist Darrell Spence, who has covered the U.S. economy for more than three decades, separates AI hype from the evidence, explaining how much growth the current capital-spending boom is actually buying, where productivity gains are most likely to show up, and who benefits when they do. He also looks to earlier investment cycles for a sense of how long this one will last. The spend...

Top of mind for the Inside Economics team this week is the surge in long-term interest rates. Colleague Martin Wurm joins the conversation to unpack why rates have risen so sharply, assess whether the U.S. Treasury’s efforts to stem the increase will work, and consider the risk of a much more serious bond market sell-off. Fundamentally, the only real solution is for the nation to address its darke...

MIT professor David Autor, one of the world’s leading labor economists, separates AI hype from evidence, explaining which jobs are most likely to be augmented rather than automated, what that means for wages and middle-skill work, and what past technological shifts teach us about the adjustment ahead. While big changes in the labor market are coming quickly, Autor makes the case that they are mana...

The Inside Economics crew is joined by colleague Matt Colyar to run down the week’s slate of inflation and consumer data. Following the recap and a brief detour about lettuce consumption, each puts forward probabilities that the Fed will cut rates, hike rates, or stay put in the near term. The numbers game leads to a discussion of the series the group would put on their Mount Rushmore – an exercis...

There was nothing redeeming in the July jobs report, and the podcast crew covered all the pain points: weak job gains, downward revisions, fewer hours worked, slowing wage growth, and a worrisome drop in labor force participation. Fittingly, we had to battle through our own painful series of technical problems while recording - curious whether you’ll notice. Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Mo...

Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute and colleague Matt Colyar join the Inside Economics crew to unpack a blockbuster week for the U.S. economy. A bizarre FOMC meeting, fresh GDP and inflation data, new readings on consumers, and financial market gyrations offered plenty to discuss. The group debates what it all means, where the economy is likely to head from here, and of course, pl...

Nowhere is the economy’s resilience more evident than in the vehicle market. To break this down, the Inside Economics team is joined by colleague Mike Brisson, and the brain trust at Cox Automotive, including Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist, and repeat guest Jonathan Smoke, Chief Strategy Officer. The group weighs how the recent escalation of the Iran War is impacting gas prices and consumer decision...

The financial health of the American consumer is top of mind these days, and no one better to discuss it with than Emmaline Aliff of Equifax and our own consumer maven, Mike Brisson, join the podcast to dig into the evidence. While the consumer sector as a whole remains resilient, the story differs dramatically across the thrivers, the strivers, and the survivors. We also unpack a week full of inf...

Ethan Harris, former Head of Global Economic Research at Bank of America, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss his views on the economy’s resiliency, AI, and the Fed. Ethan expounds on the new Chair Kevin Warsh’s stance on inflation and how to interpret his views from the latest Fed minutes. The team discusses whether AI is affecting productivity and the risks it poses to the wider economy a...