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Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial review some interesting VIX option trades around the election and around inauguration day in 2025 compared to the next few months options action. When young people say home ownership dreams are dead is that true? Surprising numbers to compare inflation adjusted costs. Plus, on Friday the market swung from down over 1% to up almost 1% as we co...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial talk about Nvidia's earnings report and how they are catching up to Apple in total market cap. Will they cash Microsoft? Then they note the percentage of companies mentioning AI on earnings calls. What does that mean for CAPEX spending on semiconductor chips? Later they look at how housing prices after a small drop are now growing YoY despite...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial start by looking at GameStop's (GME) call option open interest and activity in the days prior to Roaring Kitty tweeting . They notice the increase in options activity ahead of the surge in the stock's price and volume spike and whether the options market led the stock market on GME. Then they comment on another new all-time high by the S&P 50...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial discuss the idea that the stock market is in a Goldilocks period based on sustained higher margins and earnings growth. Then, they discuss how out of the headlines the Fed has already started easing by reducing their balance sheet runoff each month. Why reducing the Overnight Reverse Repo usage (RRP) isn't restrictive but rather was a reactio...

  Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial this week to discuss the Jay Powell Fed decision and the latest in employment and inflation. Then, they do a deep dive into dividend reinvestment. Specifically, analyzing the idea of acquiring more shares and can dividends reduce or eventually pay down your initial cost? They then do a deep dive into how the time premium works on o...

Derek Moore discusses the declining probabilities for Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. Plus, how PCE Supercore did not make the case for Fed rate cuts. Later, looking at the analyst's expectations for earnings growth within the S&P 500 Index. Finally, comments on a paper showing how using the pre-1983 methods to compute CPI Consumer Price Index show we had higher inflation that the 1970s.   Declini...

Derek Moore and Mike Puck from ZEGA Financial discuss Friday's selloff. It's official, we are in a 5% market correction. Looking back at other corrections greater than 5% from the highs. Mortgage rates move back up while 10-year treasury yields surge. Commodities are higher on the year but still down from all-time highs. Gold makes another all time high. Later they look at the value vs growth perf...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss Friday's selloff. So, was it all the readjustment of Fed rate cut expectations? Is CPI Inflation putting the Fed in a box? Michael Saylor says Bitcoin is better than Gold. The rally in Gold that everyone is sleeping on. CPI Supercore trending higher showing services not goods are the culprit. Later they examine the VIX Futures curve...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are back to explore surprising data about buying the market at all-time highs vs any other day. Plus, how do markets and bonds perform post the last fed hike? Later, while you were sleeping developed international markets outperform U.S. markets. And listener question "who do I know what a good price for an option is?"   What is a high or lo...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss Fed governor Waller (not Christopher Walkin) hinting the Fed should be in no rush to cut interest rates. Plus, we haven't seen this many record stock market highs since Q1 of 2013. So, what does that mean if anything? Examining VVIX and VIX which both are really quiet and low right now. Growth has outperformed value by quite a bit, b...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss the Fed getting bullish by reducing unemployment estimates, raising GDP growth estimates, and doing nothing else but the market liked it. All while the yield curve inversion sets a record for longest in history. What is Bitcoin halving and what does it do for supply and demand? Looking at the stock market after going up a lot, why hi...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, talk through some examples of options trading in 0 DTE options on the SPX and Nvidia. Plus, a hedge fund manager says the worst crash since 1929 is coming. Looking at huge inflows into the semiconductor ETFs. Derek actually agrees with Michael Saylor's points on Bitcoin including whether it's a currency or property. Media mentions of stock m...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss how the magnificent 7 stocks aren't all going up this year. Plus, reviewing what the worst time to buy stocks was and how investors would have done even if they had. Later, they explain why the last 10-15 years before retirement need growth but hedging. How Japan's central bank might take interest rates from negative to positive, shi...

Derek Moore  and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, explain why it's so hard to trade the VIX via options or VIX futures given the nature of the products and how VIX works. Supercore PCE, yeah that's a thing now, came in hot so what does that mean for the Fed and rates? Speaking of the Fed cutting rates, what if they don't cut this year? Later they explore how High Yield Bonds aren't showing...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss Nvidia's beat on earnings, their march towards $2trillion market cap, and how as earnings forecasts rise, even though the stock has made new highs, forward PE ratios go lower. Then, they explore what the options market via implied volatility was forecasting for an Nvidia move post earnings. Later, they review a comparison between the...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, follow up on last week's PE ration (useless?) discussion explaining how stocks go up or down based on earnings, multiples, and other factors. Then they delve into correlations between the US Dollar Index and the S&P 500 Index. Later, the surprising fact that as Japan's Nikkei Index makes 35-year all-time highs they are in a technical recessi...

Derek Moore  and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, ask whether forward PE ratios are predictive of future market direction? Then they review how the S&P 500 Index has performed during each presidential election going back to 1996. Does it matter which party (Republicans or Democrats) are in office for markets? Is Tesla going to get kicked out of the Magnificent 7? Later Jay and Derek are jo...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss the Fed and Powell press conference market reaction. Plus, they look at META and Apple option's implied volatilities did or didn't predict the post earnings moves. 1994-95 experience in Fed rates and bond yields compared to today. Later, they set the record straight on what NAV erosion is, why the Shiller PE may not be predictive of...

Derek Moore  and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are it at once again where they analyze Tesla's implied volatility right before earnings vs what happened. Did the option's market misprice premiums? Also, in the episode they talk about Bitcoin's drop as a sell the news buy the rumor example while Derek argues that Bitcoin's volatility make it unusable as a currency to transact business. L...

Derek Moore  and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are back to discuss whether the Fed grasps how prices historically always rise. That prices never drop and inflation dropping doesn't mean prices go down. Then they discuss the forward earnings estimates showing growth for the S&P 500 Index while comparing price to sales compared to January of 2022. Later, they discuss what the option volat...

Derek Moore  and Mike Puck of ZEGA Financial join up to discuss the run up and selloff in bitcoin around the bitcoin spot etf launches. Is it the obvious buy the rumor sell the news situation? How CPI components like lodging away from home and travel pricing are starting to cool. Later, examining the value vs growth debate and whether this is the year for value to finally have its day. Plus, forwa...

Derek Moore  and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are back this week to discuss some hedging examples and how hedging is cheap right now. They even go through a few examples. Then they get into the sharp rise in container shipping costs before discussing the weaker PMI Services data. Later they note Bloomberg's data showing articles mentioning "soft landing" are the highest since the 2000-...

Derek Moore  and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, go through their 2024 predictions and review how right or wrong they were in 2023. Why predictions are so hard to make and why they are overrated. When markets go up over 10% in the final 2 months of the year historically what does that mean for returns the following year? How earnings growth and market returns are non-correlations. Accordi...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss how people are blaming the Wed 1.5% selloff on 0 DTE options while the CBOE says not so fast as dealers may have been buying stocks during the drawdown thus stabilizing markets. Later they talk shipping container rates spiking higher due to issues in the Suez Canal and Red Sea. Is this a fly in the ointment for inflation? Then they t...

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, discuss the new consensus of the Fed doing multiple rate cuts so what could go wrong? Record call option volume while the VVIX makes a move higher while the VIX continues lower. Viral article said 44% of home sales were to big institutions like Blackrock and Innovation homes but it was less than 0.4%. Later they look at whether the Powell Fe...