Behind the Data

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online. Before getting into this week's posts, a quick note: I'm running a market research project on downhole inspection solutions, specifically acoustic devices used for perforation erosion evaluation and well integrity checks. If you work with these tools, I'd love a 15-minute conversa...

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online. I open with two LinkedIn polls on WTI and rig counts. The previous poll asked where WTI closes 2026. The plurality landed on $85–$95, above the forward strip at the time, which I read as the market expecting more disruption than the consensus suggests. From there I get into the new poll on where...

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online. I open with how oil markets have been playing "slaps" with the US-Iran peace deal, with prices grinding lower in anticipation of an agreement, never blowing out to the upside, and now sitting at around $80 with a $15 war premium still baked in. I walk through why the 60-day nuclear neg...

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online. I open with a Foundations of Energy piece on why oil prices aren't a reliable predictor of future rig counts. The simple model you'd want—oil up, rigs up—just doesn't hold when you test it against history, and I walk through why some nuance is unavoidable when the capital decision...

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online. I open with the research piece I wrote at Foundations of Energy on why the UAE is leaving OPEC now. Most of the commentary I was reading focused on what happens to oil markets after the decision, e.g. how much more the UAE will produce, how Saudi Arabia responds, what instabilities follow. All r...

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online. I open with SLB's Q1 2026 earnings release and a word cloud I built from the text. Two words sat at the center: "digital" and "production." Neither is new for SLB, but both took on different weight this quarter against the backdrop of the Iran war, higher oil prices, and...

This is Behind the Data, where I take you behind the energy market analysis I'm publishing online.  In this episode, I start with the webinar I hosted on reading the market after six weeks of war, and why I think this conflict is such a rare teaching opportunity for anyone trying to build real mental model fluency, the kind that avoids both false certainty and head-in-the-sand paralysis. Then...

In this episode, I go behind some of the energy analysis I've been publishing recently. I start with why oil markets may not normalize until late 2026, and the conversation I've been having with a New York Post reporter about the lingering disruptions from the Iran war. I walk through why repairs that could in principle be done in days or weeks will take months in practice, from reconfig...

In this episode, I go behind some of the energy analysis I've been publishing recently. I start with the recent surge in WTI prices past Brent, and what these price movements reveal about how stakeholders and well-capitalized entities are processing the ongoing Iran war.  Then I explore the persistent reality of capital discipline among US oil producers, and whether a prolonged closure of the...

In this episode, I go behind some of the energy analysis I've been working on recently.  I start with a CNBC inquiry that pulled me into the petrochemicals value chain, and what I found about the split between upstream feedstocks and downstream products. From there I step back and look at how the energy conversation is shifting: from sustainability to affordability to security, and why it&apo...

 In this episode, I go behind some of the energy analysis I've been publishing recently. I start with a question that's been on my mind: why are energy executives still uneasy even as oil prices sit near $100 and profits are strong? Then I get into the Brent-WTI spread surge and what's driving the widening gap between international and domestic oil prices. From there I connect some...