Adler AM: Bitcoin Morning Brief

Bitcoin Realized Cap flows turned net positive and apparent demand topped issuance for six days, but at 2.52 it sits in the weakest 10% since 2024.

BTC reclaimed the STH cost basis at $68K and broke above SMA200/SMA111, putting short-term holders back in profit. SMA365 at $83K is resistance.

STH supply in profit jumped to 74.9% as BTC rebounded 22% to $77K, but net flow to exchanges crossed +25K BTC. Watch for distribution pressure.

Bitcoin rose 20%, yet US spot premium is negative and open interest in BTC dropped 8.7%. 

Bitcoin Regime Score hit Strong Bull (60) at $69.5K. The turn started Aug 17, before a $1.42B short squeeze amplified the breakout.

Net Taker Volume stays positive while Bitcoin open interest declines - buy-side demand without leverage. Watch for a break above $66.8K.

Bitcoin holds 1.30x the LTH cost basis in the Low Risk zone. Supply near ATH with minimal spending shows no distribution. Watch a $74K reclaim.

STH MVRV at 0.94 and SOPR near 0.996 show Bitcoin short-term holders underwater, not capitulating. Watch $59.3K support, a SOPR reclaim of 1.0.

Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit sit near local lows at 53%, while 30-day transfer volume has jumped 23% from its April low, above its yearly average.

Bitcoin miner fees sit near 2015 lows at 0.71% of revenue; hashrate is down 23% but holding. Watch a return above 1% for a regime shift.

Bitcoin volatility compressed to 3.8% and ADX fell to 11 - an extreme Bollinger Bands squeeze, no trend. Watch for band expansion, ADX above 20.

Bitcoin 0-3M holder NUPL is near breakeven while the 3-6M cohort sits at -0.14, its Realized Cap 69.6% below peak. Watch 3-6M to reclaim zero.

MVRV Z-Score at 0.41, below its 1.69 mean but above zero. BTC holds ~13% over the $57.6K cost basis. Lose it and $46.1K stress opens up.

LTH SOPR below 1.0 does not mean the entire long-term holder cohort is under pressure. The average LTH cost basis is $49.3K, while Bitcoin trades at $64.3K, so most of the cohort remains in profit. The main stress is now concentrated among STHs, whose cost basis is above the market price.

The current price rebound is not confirmed by flows. The apparent demand-to-issuance ratio and net age flow are recovering from their July lows but remain negative. Supply is aging and leaving circulation, supporting the price, but fresh demand has yet to return.

Bitcoin price prediction for August 2026 with historical performance, support and resistance, macro outlook, ETF flows, and on-chain data.

This brief shows how the balance of supply in profit and loss has changed over the past year and how stress has evolved during the past month. The picture remains strained, but the indicator is still far from previous extremes, while weekly momentum has only started to turn higher.

The market is still in the Neutral zone, but sentiment continues to deteriorate and is approaching the Fear threshold.

The short-term holder share is near multi-year lows, while the long-term holder share has approached historical highs. This points to lower coin turnover and resilience among long-term holders, but it does not yet confirm a return of demand.

Local stress rose to 16 points. The impulse was driven almost entirely by price movement, while exchange flows and derivatives do not confirm it.

Price weakness has not been accompanied by an increase in supply on exchanges. BTC inflows continue to decline, while Netflow remains neutral. Coins are not accumulating on exchanges in volumes that would point to rising sell-side pressure, but there is also no meaningful reduction in liquid supply that could support the price.

Around 56% of BTC supply is now in profit, compared with 47% at the June low. Market structure has improved, but the 90-day change remains negative: the profitable supply base is recovering, yet it is still well below where it stood three months ago.

Bitcoin is in an undervaluation zone based on the MVRV Z-Score, but full capitulation, marked by the metric falling below zero, has not occurred. Realized P/L points to easing selling pressure, but there is still no confirmation of a cycle bottom through capitulation.

We compare the current bear market phase with the 2022 cycle through realized profit and loss.

The US spot market is emerging from a period of maximum pressure. The Coinbase discount has not disappeared, but it has narrowed significantly, while the return of positive ETF flows confirms that the market structure is improving.