Three Questions

Nine months after the US seizure of Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela has largely slipped from the headlines. Oil production in the country is steadily rising, however, and talks over a political transition are inching forward under the government of Delcy Rodríguez. The stakes could hardly be higher: Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. But is this oil-driven recovery actually reachin...

A cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover last year cost the British economy £2 billion. Had a Russian drone bombed a British oil refinery at a fraction of that damage, NATO would have invoked Article 5. But because a cyber attack isn't kinetic, it doesn't count. That gap between how much damage hostile states can do and what states are prepared to call an "act of war" is now the cheapest, fastest explo...

In late August, President Trump sent the US-Saudi 123 agreement for civil nuclear cooperation to Congress, beginning a 90-day legislative countdown after which the deal enters into force. The deal — signed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in July — establishes a framework for American companies to sell nuclear technology to Riyadh. In the process, Saudi capital would help finance America's own...

Over four years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Western intelligence agencies have begun issuing public warnings about the threat of a Russian escalation against NATO before the end of the decade. With Washington seeking to reduce its conventional forces on the continent and weapon delivery timelines slipping beyond 2030, these intelligence assessments have raised urgent and uncomfor...

The era of corporate activism is fading. On most issues, this shift toward political neutrality is welcome, but not when the issue is China. Virtually every major global firm now carries dependencies on both Washington and Beijing, and in a genuine crisis, both governments will move to leverage those dependencies to their own advantage. Companies that imagine neutrality will preserve their indepen...

For years, American labs held an uncontested lead in artificial intelligence. That is no longer obviously true: Chinese open-weight models have closed much of the gap, and by some measures have pulled ahead. The stakes are not merely commercial. Whoever leads sets the terms for what the world runs on, who gets access to it, and what is built into the models themselves, including (in the Chinese ca...

Since April, Ukraine has dramatically escalated its drone campaign against Russia's oil refineries, knocking out a substantial share of the country's refining capacity and triggering gasoline shortages from Crimea to central Russia. What was once a nuisance for Moscow has become something closer to a full-blown fuel crisis. Yet the strikes' effects are uneven: ordinary Russian motorists are feelin...

After decades defined by survival and preservation, the U.S. nuclear industry has entered a new era of growth. Bolstered by a 2025 presidential executive order and bipartisan acts of Congress, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission is undergoing its most comprehensive transformation in fifty years. The stakes are considerable: surging electricity demand from AI and industrial growth has made nucle...

In 2011, Congress placed $300 million in the hands of private investors with an unusual mandate: grow Egypt's economy on behalf of the American people. Fifteen years later, the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund has invested in more than 150 companies, helped create over 75,000 jobs, and grown to an estimated value of more than $500 million. And it has managed all this in a country rocked by revolu...

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the 1996 report of the Commission on America's National Interests, a bipartisan effort to answer a deceptively simple question: what does the United States actually need to do in the world? Far from a dry policy artifact, the report was an attempt to bring discipline to a foreign policy debate in which nearly every cause was being branded "vital." Three deca...

One year ago, President Donald Trump signed a series of executive orders aimed at accelerating the deployment of nuclear energy in the United States. The impact has been dramatic, pulling forward the construction of small modular reactors by roughly five years and reshaping how industry, government, and allies plan for the future of power. The stakes could hardly be higher: energy security is the...

Two months into the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the conflict shows no signs of imminent resolution, with both sides convinced that time is on their side. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has rattled global energy markets, but neither Washington nor Tehran appears ready to back down, raising the possibility of a prolonged "no war, no peace" stalemate. How long can each side endure, and what woul...

Long dismissed in the U.S. as uneconomic and proliferation-prone, the recycling of used nuclear fuel is becoming a strategic imperative the country can no longer afford to ignore. The U.S. is sitting on roughly 96,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel, the vast majority of which is reusable material rather than waste, even as global uranium demand surges and China races to build dozens of new react...

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has abruptly severed a fifth of global oil and LNG supply. Far from simply spiking energy prices, a supply chain shock of this magnitude will have cascading impacts across the entire global economy. The current crisis threatens to halt as much as 30% of global fertilizer production, for example, resulting in major food shortages. How can policymakers promote glo...

With Israeli and Iranian strikes targeting the critical energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf, GCC countries have found themselves caught in the crossfire of a war beyond their control. Iran's retaliatory drone and missile strikes threaten to derail global energy markets and the Gulf states' fragile economic recovery from the Covid era. How are the Gulf states reacting to escalating strikes on...

Critical undersea cables and pipelines are increasingly vulnerable to sabotage by geopolitical rivals, adding a new threat dimension to competition in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere. Such "gray zone" tactics allow adversaries to test NATO resolve without triggering open conflict. What are the legal and military challenges of protecting infrastructure that lies outside clear territorial boundaries? A...

America is seeing a renewed push to expand nuclear energy, driven by rising electricity demand, data centers, and growing geopolitical competition. But building new reactors is slow, expensive, and risky, raising hard questions about financing, siting, and political will. Can the United States realistically catch up to China and Russia while rebuilding its domestic nuclear supply chain? And should...

Mass protests in Iran have been met with brutal repression, raising the stakes for the Trump administration which is now weighing whether to respond in support of the demonstrators. Do the protests threaten the Islamic Republic's existence, or is it yet another cycle of unrest the regime believes it can weather through force? What are the risks of U.S. military intervention? And how far would Wash...

The stunning U.S. raid that removed Nicolás Maduro from power has upended Venezuela’s political landscape and forced Washington to confront what comes next. Rather than pushing immediately for regime change, the Trump administration appears to be testing a pressure-and-incentives strategy, with sanctions relief, oil production, and economic access used as leverage to shape the behavior of the rema...

The ongoing peace negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine War have entered a delicate phase, with both Kyiv and Moscow signaling interest in talks even as fighting continues on the ground. Can Ukraine secure meaningful security guarantees without conceding territory? Is Russia seeking a genuine deal or merely buying time? And what would a workable endgame actually look like for a conflict that has...

It’s been a big two weeks in U.S. politics, and some political observers are asking whether the MAGA movement is finally losing steam. A year after President Donald Trump’s stunning comeback, Republicans face fresh blowback from the record-breaking government shutdown, renewed public scrutiny of the "Epstein Files," and major electoral defeats on November 4. Is the MAGA movement fraying at the edg...

What does “realism” in foreign policy really mean, and why are some experts calling for a return to it? In this episode, Paul Saunders breaks down the core tenets of realism that separate it from more idealistic and moralistic approaches. Saunders is the president of the Center for the National Interest and an expert with more than three decades of experience in U.S.-Russia policy. He previously s...

President Trump’s indecision on providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine has raised fresh questions about what his true endgame may be. Is the president using the weapons issue as leverage in a broader negotiation with Moscow? Could his push for a ceasefire bring about lasting peace, or does it risk merely freezing the conflict on Russia’s terms? And what does this shift reveal about the administrat...

On September 17, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), a formal pact pledging that aggression against one will be treated as aggression against both. The agreement effectively extends Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent over Riyadh, raising questions about whether this marks the emergence of a new “nuclear umbrella” in the Gulf. Is this a pragmatic hedge by Riyad...

President Donald Trump's state visit to the UK concluded with a new technology partnership and major investment pledges, but also highlighted sticking points—from Trump’s refusal to lower tariffs to sharp differences with Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Russia, Ukraine, and Gaza. What does this visit reveal about the durability of the “special relationship,” and where might tensions pull Washington...