The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

The Ever Given made worldwide headlines when it became stuck in the Suez Canal in March 2021. The cargo ship's dilemma symbolised global supply chain disruptions that were reflected in a record surge in shipping costs. But those costs are now falling as quickly as they rose in 2020-21. What’s behind the plunge, and can this help win the battle against inflation? In this episode of The Weekly Brief...

China's zero-COVID policy is under mounting strain as the economy reels and public anger grows. The government is responding but will it be enough to bring relief to China's economic outlook and its beleaguered public? And what do record infection numbers and the threat of more lockdowns mean for the global economy? On 29th November, economists from our China, Global, Commodities and Markets teams...

Recent data releases suggest the global economy is holding up better than anticipated by gloomy forecasts (including ours). But it's far too soon to breathe a sigh of relief. In this latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains why there's still appetite among central banks to keep raising rates, and why recessions still loom in advanced economies. Plus, EM s...

This year’s has been a dollar rally for the ages, but recent weeks have seen the currency come under pressure. That’s fuelling talk that the greenback is finally past the peak with only downside ahead. Jonas Goltermann and Jonathan Petersen from our FX Markets team aren’t convinced and in this episode they talk about the drivers of dollar strength this year and what – if anything – has changed of...

Despite the rumours, the Chinese government isn't about to abandon zero-COVID. Although new measures to tweak the rules raise hopes of a near-term end to the draconian policy, Mark Williams and Julian Evans-Pritchard explain the many difficulties involved in doing so – including the fact that the economy would likely suffer, rather than get a boost, from scrapping it. Plus, Group Chief Economist N...

A slew of central bank decisions last week highlighted a range of policy dilemmas at this stage of the tightening cycle, from the impact of higher rates on teetering housing markets to the threat that even hints of a slower pace of hikes triggers a market stampede back into risky assets. In this episode of The Weekly Briefing, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through the outcomes of the m...

Central bankers are driving the global economy into its steepest downturn in four decades, barring the GFC and the pandemic. But which economies will be hardest hit and how will the onset of recession change the inflation-monetary tightening calculus? David Wilder speaks to Jennifer McKeown, the head of our Global Economics coverage, about our just-published Q4 Global Economic Outlook and asks her...

David Wilder talks to Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing about the latest on the central bank war on inflation. They discuss what signs of persistently high core numbers mean for expectations for how far and fast interest rates need to rise and the role that weaker activity and cooling housing markets will play in easing price pressures. Plus, our Europe team has slashed its forecasts for euro-zo...

The Communist Party 20th Congress will accelerate a huge personnel reshuffle throughout the party and the state apparatus, affecting key policymakers including central bank governor Yi Gang, Guo Shuqing, the chief bank regulator, and Liu He, a Vice Premier known as Xi Jinping's "economic czar". David Wilder talks to Senior China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard about who might replace these influe...

Globalisation isn't dead, but it is undergoing a fundamental shift which will reshape the global economy and markets in the years ahead. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses The Fracturing of the Global Economy, our major new research project, which makes the case for the resurgence of geopolitics as a major driver of economic and market outcomes for the first time in a generation. He tal...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing flew from London to Singapore intending to talk global macro with clients there. Instead, his discussions were dominated by the chaos of the UK's political economy. He calls in (on an occasionally spotty line) from Changi Airport to explain the teachings that an extraordinary week for the UK have for other governments and central banks as interest rates move up...