The Variant Perception Podcast

Hiking into weaker growth - Oct. G3 Leading Indicator Watch [Video Discussion] Find out more about us here . [00:28] US Growth: Steady outlook, Fed hike signals transition to late-cycle environment.[07:54] Global: Growth momentum weakening, inflation impulse negative. [10:41] US Consumer: Real income headwinds remain, making consumers the potential weak link. [13:40] US Labor: Broadly in balance,...

Our best charts and research from the week. Find out more about us here . Subscribe | Website | Request Trial This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

Our best charts and research from the week. Find out more about us here . Housing headwinds to restrain hawkish pricing - Sep. EM/DM Leading Indicator Watch (24 Sep) Our global diffusion indices show a marginally softer growth outlook and a fading inflation impulse. We like receiving AUD 2y2y as the lagged effects of previous RBA hikes start to hit the housing market. We stay long SONIA Dec-27 fut...

Inspired by Byron Wien, we listed VP's 10 surprises as part of our 2025 Themes . We followed his definition of a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would assign less than a 33% probability, but which we believed were “Probable,” having a 50%+ likelihood. The below AI summary provides the key takeaways that can be read in less than 5 minutes. AI Summary - Evaluating VP's 10 surprises...

This post is an excerpt from a video originally shared with VP clients on November 7, 2024. Link to original video here . To gain access to more of our research, contact us here . Speakers : Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) and Jonathan Petersen (Chief Markets Economist) Trump's decisive victory (foreseen by the “Keys to the White House” ) reinforces structural trends : The Republican sweep shou...

This post is an excerpt from a video originally shared with VP clients on October 11, 2024. Link to original video here . To gain access to more of our research, contact us here . * Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) and Scott Freeman (Director of Asset Allocation) * The likely holding pattern until the US election makes it a good time to revisit our key structural (2-3y+) themes and the...

This video was originally shared with VP clients on September 23, 2024. Link to original video here . To gain access to more of our research, contact us here . Speakers: Tian Yang (CEO & Head of Research) and Scott Freeman (Director of Asset Allocation) There are 2 key decisions to get right for asset allocation: * How much to allocate to risk assets (stock vs. bond vs. cash allocation). * How to...

This post is an excerpt from our August 28, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . * We discuss our recent thematic report: Asset Allocation Using LEIs, Capital Cycle and Crowding . * The VP Asset Allocation Engine uses a) LEIs to quantify the current macro outlook and make high level asset allocation decisions between equities and bonds, a...

This post is an excerpt from our June 11, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . * We review our US Fixed Income Dashboard ahead of the June Fed Meeting and inflation data. * Structurally : Fiscal deficits, demographics, geopolitical tensions, and pension funding ratios all bias yields higher. * Cyclically : Our US term-premium, fair value,...

This post is an excerpt from our May 3, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . * We discuss our recent thematic report, The Structural Limits of Fiscal Policy , which dives into how politics led the US to its current state of "fiscal purgatory" and what history tells us is the most likely path forward to finance deficit spending. * The US f...

This video was originally shared with VP clients on April 30, 2024 and can be viewed on the VP Portal here . This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our April 7, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . Highlights from April 2024 Big Picture discussion: * Investors now view inflation as the “biggest tail risk”, but leading data is telling a different story, aligning more with a “mini inflation scare” scenario. We view fading fiscal stimulus as the actual great...

This post is an excerpt from our March 22, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . Highlights from the March 2024 Global Macro Trading discussion: * What's worked and we still like: short THB, short CHF, short CNH * What hasn't moved or moved against us, but we still like: short SONIA vs SOFR, AUD flatteners * Cyclical trades that could be t...

This video was originally shared with VP clients on February 4, 2024, and is also available on YouTube . This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This post is an excerpt from our March 8, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . Highlights from the March 2024 Big Picture discussion: * The ongoing rebound in global leading growth inputs paired with the US fiscal outlook support our structural preference for commodities and real assets. * The covid-distorted inventory cycle is normalizin...

This post is an excerpt from our February 19, 2024 market discussion video to VP clients. The full length, original video can be viewed here . Each month, we plan to have separate, more targeted market discussion calls, centered around a) big picture, top of mind macro themes b) asset allocation c) global macro trade ideas and d) ad hoc single stock discussions. Highlights from the February 2024 A...

This video clip is courtesy of The Grant Williams Podcast and is used with permission. Investors need to be aware of when market participants are acting for reasons other than economic. Our LPPL (log periodic power law) models are one of many powerful VP tools that allow investors to better "play the game." VP CEO Tian Yang recently sat down with Grant Williams on his podcast to discuss. This is a...

US fiscal and labor hoarding have been key supports for US growth. Under-the-hood issues of tax receipts and job openings suggest an elevated dependence on deficit spending, creating inflation upside risk. The AI investment spree has echoes of the fiber optic build-out. The productivity gains need to be weighed against an increasingly geopolitical world focused on security vs efficiency and where...

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

Tian Yang, Head of Research / CEO at Variant Perception Aaran Param, CFA, Head of Asset Allocation at Variant Perception Tian and Aaran engage in a discussion where they tie together insights from recent reports and discuss Variant Perception's thought process. We hope you find value in the conversation. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get acce...

Macro themes: • US Recession Signal active + LEIs point to deep downturn in 1H23. • Inflation LEIs showing a clear rollover across most of the world (ex Japan and eurozone). • Stick with risk-off asset allocation • When to buy back into risk assets: 1) policymakers panic and ease, 2) surge in selling exhaustion buy signals, 3) upturn in LEIs + Recession Signal falls to zero + market bottoms checkl...

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit blog.variantperception.com