The Bayesian Conspiracy

Me and Wes exchange hot takes. Mine is stolen shamelessly from Based Camp, go listen to the original source material there , it’s good!

Seriously though, what’s going on here ? Arielle dives in with us. LINKS Arielle’s substack – Analog Futures Bayesian Conspiracy episode #5 (!) on What is Rationalism? The Mind Killer live episode recorded at VibeCamp Eneasz’s novel – What Lies Dreaming 0:00:27 – What is a Post-Rat? 1:03:13 – Guild of the Rose  Update 1:05:01 – Less Wrong Posts 1:16:33 – Thank the Pat...

How to talk about the future From On “Present Rate No Singularity” at Thing of Things

Mo’ productivity, mo’ money, at last Zvi’s The Overemployed Via ChatGPT

We talk with Brooke , creator and driving force behind VibeCamp. We talk about VibeCamp 2, being human, and the post/rats corner of twitter. LINKS Brooke on Twitter Brooke’s most-moved-by-this Tweet, the Lemur Who Vibed Eneasz’s retrospective post on VibeCamp What are vibes? Meme to Vibe: A Philosophical Report by Peter Limberg The Neighborhood SF project Rational Magic , an article ab...

Steven blasts Eneasz with the latest news about how Reddit is doing it’s best to ruin everyone’s good time. Reddit post from Apollo’s developer on the subject Followup post for some debunking and elaboration Links to everything Steven mentioned in the blast are in those two links.

Actual photo of David’s Baklava David Youssef from The Guild of the Rose has great ways to integrate ChatGPT into your work, and also thinks AIs will keep humans around. Links: ChatGPT leaking Samsung chip secrets is iceberg’s tip Training an LLMs model Achieving 99.3% of ChatGPT’s Performance GPT 4 is Smarter than You Think: Introducing SmartGPT 0:00:23 – Part One: Maximizing ChatGPT(...

Matt Freeman joins us to discuss life in changing times. Major take away for Eneasz: Be the kind of person your post-singularity descendants will be proud to say “I descended from that man/woman” Links: Put stuff in orbit on a budget Three Worlds Collide Singularity Song, by The Lisps 0:05:37 –   Guild of the Rose Update 0:09:03 – Part One: OMG Guys This Stuff is Awesome!! 0:53:07 – Pa...

Richard Acton returns to denounce pre-publication peer review, and propose a replacement building off the open source software ethos, and review bounties Richard’s extensive notes for this episode, which include a ton of great links at the bottom Contact him at richardjacton@pan-narrans.xyz Other Links: Richard on Showing Our Work and Multi-Panel Figures Richard’s podcast XenoThesis ,...

Blast with Matt re OpenAI using GPT-4 to automatically write explanations for the behavior of neurons in GPT-2 , and what this means for Doom (spoiler: it’s good!) OpenAI’s explanation Thread – less than 1% of neuron’s explained with good confidence

We discuss Eric Hoel’s Why I Am Not An Effective Altruist   Other Links: EA Forum – Comments on Hoel’s Essay EA Forum – What actually is the argument for effective altruism? SSC – Arguments From My Opponent Believes Something Ken Ham’s Ark EconTalk Podcast with Russ Roberts and Eric Hoel Thing of Things substack We now partner with  The Guild of the Rose , check...

One of these white pills is more realistic than the other. Which one is which is left as an exercise to the listener. Roko’s White Pill AXRP reform AI Alignment with Scott Aaronson

We discuss The Rise and Fall of Peer Review , with Adam Mastroianni from Experimental History We also touch on The dance of the naked emperors and Ideas aren’t getting harder to find and anyone who tells you otherwise is a coward and I will fight them Other Links: Is Ice Cream… healthy ? ( origin ) What Lies Dreaming 0:00:01 – The Rise and Fall of Peer Review with Adam Mastroianni 0:59:03 –...

With Wes from The Mind Killer we discuss Exposure to Lizardman is Lethal  

Speaking in GPT tongues with Matt MUDsim Respectful Criticism Lambda Calc? gfodor’s take Eliezer take + followup

The salt in pasta water fallacy

We discuss Rationalists and the Cultic Milieu by Ozy Brennan Other Links: Doocy asking about AI doom at the White House 0:00:38 – Feedback/Thanks DC Rats! 0:01:30 – Guild of the Rose  Update 0:03:36 – Rationalists and the Cultic Milieu 0:43:48 – Less Wrong Posts 1:16:01 – Thank the Patron  We now partner with  The Guild of the Rose , check them out. Hey look, we have a  discord ! What could possib...

An AI risk argument that resonates with NYTimes readers

Probot joins to discuss Chatbot convinces Belgian to commit suicide De Standaard

Matt comes on to blast Eneasz with his LW post The Parable of the King and the Random Process  

Matt and Eneasz discuss Katja Grace’s Let’s think about slowing down AI Other Links Bayes Blast 1 – In Defense of Chatbot Romance The Bayesian Conspiracy 182 – The Birth and Death of Sydney (Bing AI) 0:00:45 – Guild of the Rose  Update 0:01:44 – Let’s think about slowing down AI 0:37:12 – Is this all just cope? We now partner with  The Guild of the Rose , check them out. Hey look, we have a ...

Steven blasts Eneasz with Spencer Greenberg’s description of a huge problem in science publication. Links The short post Steven took his notes from A Clearer Thinking podcast episode where they discuss this Spencer as a guest on Two Psychologists, Four Beers

The Waluigi Effect  

Duncan Sabien on dynamics [can] arise if you have people nudging in that direction (also thanks to Liam from 2 Rash 2 Unadvised podcas t for intro)

My Model Of EA Burnout