Supply Chain Secrets

Pacific spot rates are holding flat while futures signal the peak may already be over, and Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd just made a move that could mark the beginning of a Red Sea normalization after two and a half years of disruption. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Asia-USWC rates are flatlining around $5,200 while the futures curve still points sharply lower, and what that...

Transpacific spot rates are skyrocketing while Asia-North Europe tells a completely different story, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most container traffic after a week of missile exchanges between Iran and the US. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Asia-US West Coast spot rates are approaching East Coast levels and what that historically signals about market in...

Asia-North Europe rates are up another $400 week over week, the futures curve points higher still, and the Strait of Hormuz is open, closed, and open again depending on which hour you check. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all of it. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates at $3,563 and climbing, with July futures p...

Rates on Asia-North Europe and Asia-US West Coast are surging, a US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been signed, and El Niño is now official with an 88% chance of being historically severe. This week Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cut through the noise on all three. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates up $1,000 in a month with fut...

Spot rates on Asia-Europe and Transpacific are climbing fast. The easy explanation is Hormuz. The right explanation is supply and demand, and the data Lars Jensen pulled this week makes the case clearly. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: NYFI update: Asia-North Europe spot rates have now exceeded the Chinese New Year peak and are closing in on summer 2025 levels, with futures...

Rates are climbing, carriers are piling on surcharges, and peak season is arriving ahead of schedule. This week Lars Jensen runs the numbers on why the market is where it is and it has everything to do with the Red Sea and almost nothing to do with how consumers are feeling. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates continue their upward momentu...

Freight rates on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific are strengthening and this week Lars breaks down why the driver is fundamentals, not Hormuz. Meanwhile, a vessel explosion in the Gulf of Oman adds fresh tension to an already fragile situation. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why capacity injection on Asia-North Europe and Transpacific is running well below demand growth,...

Transpacific rates are grinding higher into peak season while the Hormuz crisis shows no sign of resolution, and a new weather risk is quietly building for the Panama Canal. In this episode, Lars Jensen and guest host Don Davis cover: NYFI spot rate momentum on Asia-US West Coast and Asia-Europe, and what futures rates suggest for the next two months Iran's tightening grip on Strait of Hormuz...

Pacific rates are flatlining but peak season signals are building, with freight futures pointing to a $900 per FEU jump on Asia-North Europe by July. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, global container demand fell 2.4% year-on-year in March, and Maersk posted a second consecutive quarter of negative EBIT. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Rate movemen...

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months, yet TransPacific and Asia-Europe freight rates are barely moving compared to the disruptions of 2024-2025. This week, Lars and Caroline put the Hormuz crisis in proper context and cover the other headlines reshaping ocean freight. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why Pacific and Asia-Europe spot rates are rising on seasona...

Iran has seized two MSC vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, bookings into the Persian Gulf have collapsed 66% year over year, and Somali pirates are back. The maritime risk picture is deteriorating fast. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Transpacific NYFI movements by subtrade, including why Northeast Asia rates are more volatile than other origins Why 20-foot and 40-foot rates...

Ocean freight markets are sending mixed signals this week: Asia-Europe spot rates are falling, Pacific rates are ticking up, and Atlantic rates jumped sharply, but the bigger story is the widening spread between what different shippers are paying and what that uncertainty means. In this episode, Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver cover: Why expanding rate spreads across Asia-Europe, Transpacific, and...

Freight markets are reacting to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, but not in the way many expected. In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, we break down why rate increases have been relatively modest so far, despite major geopolitical disruption, and what signals to watch beneath the surface. This episode covers:  • Why Asia–US and Asia–Europe rates are rising gradually, not sharply  • The rol...

Tomorrow, April 7, container freight futures tied to the NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) go live on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the conversation focuses on what that means for the industry and how these new tools fit into freight strategy. Rich Heath, who leads financial products at NYSHEX, joins to break down how freight futures work, how they conn...

Freight markets are reacting to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz but not in the way many expected. In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline and Lars break down what is actually happening beneath the surface of the rate data. While spot rates are only moving modestly week over week, the cumulative impact is building, and key signals in the market are starting to shift. This episod...

What will freight rates look like for the rest of 2026? In this week’s episode of Supply Chain Secrets, the discussion moves beyond current spot rates to what the market is already pricing into the future. From forward curves on key trades to the unfolding situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the episode explores how fuel costs, demand uncertainty, and capacity dynamics are shaping freight price exp...

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has abruptly changed the tone of the ocean freight market. In this week’s Supply Chain Secrets episode, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Peter Stallion of Clarksons to unpack what is happening right now and what it means for shippers, carriers, and NVOCCs navigating another wave of volatility. Peter brings the perspective of one of the world’s largest shipp...

Back from TPM, the team dives into the biggest forces reshaping ocean shipping right now. This week’s episode covers: Demand data and a widening imbalance on Asia to Europe, plus what that means for headhaul pricing How parcel and DTC trade lanes are shifting as brands rethink sourcing and resilience The latest on IEEPA being ruled unlawful, what “refunds” might actually mean, and why the importer...

Recorded live during TPM26 in Long Beach, this episode breaks down the rapidly escalating situation involving Iran and what it means for ocean shipping immediately. Lars Jensen walks through the on-the-ground implications for the Strait of Hormuz and the ripple effects that can spread congestion and rate spikes far beyond the Middle East. The team also explains why “Phantom GRIs” show up in quote-...

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets focuses squarely on tariff volatility and what it means for global trade. The Supreme Court overturns IEEPA tariffs. A new blanket tariff is introduced days later. Hundreds of commodity-level exemptions are published. Refund pathways remain unclear. The trade environment shifted dramatically within 72 hours. Lars walks through what is actually in effect, what remai...

This week’s Supply Chain Secrets is jam-packed. Lars Jensen and Caroline Weaver dig into sharp post–Chinese New Year moves: loaded spot rates falling faster than expected, spreads tightening across Pacific trades, and what that means for market certainty. We unpack carrier results, network changes from Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10,” and real operational risk in the Red Sea return. The headline story:...

Freight markets are turning earlier—and faster—than seasonal patterns would suggest. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen unpack why Pacific spot rates are collapsing well ahead of Chinese New Year, how this downturn compares to historical seasonality, and what that means for carriers and shippers alike. Lars also introduces a deeper way to look at the market:...

Rates are rolling over earlier than expected, and the gap between quoted and paid freight rates is widening again. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down what’s driving the post–Chinese New Year slowdown, why quoted spot rates tend to exaggerate both peaks and troughs, and what that means for shippers heading into contract season. Lars also shares a co...

Freight markets are turning earlier than usual. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down sharp declines in quoted rates, early signs that the Chinese New Year peak has already passed, and what actual paid spot rates are signaling across key trades. Lars also walks through a real-world example showing how choosing the wrong index in an index-linked contra...

As 2026 gets underway, early signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets , Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Matthew Chicalace of Hellmann Worldwide Logistics to break down the growing gap between quoted and paid rates, early NYFI movements post–Chinese New Year, and what those signals really say about the market. The conversation also dives into rising inter...