RaboResearch Agri Commodities

The European Commission has proposed 'Fit for 55', a package of policies aimed at reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030. What does this mean for biofuel and, consequently, canola demand? Our G&O analyst in Australia, Dennis Voznesenski, chats with Rabobank's Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds, Stefan Vogel. This episode also appears on our sister podcast  RaboResearch...

The 2021/22 outlook for the Australian cotton sector appears bright in terms of production prospects and price. To find out if there are any catches, RaboResearch's Agri Commodity Markets Cotton Analyst Andrew Rawlings joins Cheryl Kalisch Gordon of RaboResearch Australia to discuss the global market outlook and local Australian conditions. This episode also appears on our sister podcast  RaboRese...

First, we saw severe dryness in the western US and Canada, which continues. Now, we have heavy rains and even flooding across parts of Europe during harvest. Are these weather events a big deal? Dennis Voznesenski, Agricultural Analyst in Australia, is joined by Stefan Vogel, Global Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds based in Europe, to delve into the details. Please read our disclaimer here: https:...

In the wake of the USDA's June Acreage and Stocks Reports, we discuss the likely impacts on G&O and cotton markets given the USDA's latest estimates. Expectations for acreage gains were high given higher prices during plantings this season, but mixed weather across the US and stiff competition for acres between crops meant those gains were hard to achieve, especially in corn and soybeans. US June...

In a bid to reduce food price inflation, the Russian government put in place an export tax on grains & oilseeds in February. What impact will this have on Russian exports to Australia's key export destinations? Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst covering Europe, Africa, & the Black Sea, and Dennis Voznesenski, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst in Australia, dive into the details. Please read...

Cheryl Kalisch Gordon, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst with Rabobank Australia & New Zealand, is joined by her colleague Lief Chiang, Grains & Oilseeds Analyst based in China, to discuss why the outlook for canola demand in China is flat. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

The rise of commodity prices in the last year has been supported by the weakness of the US dollar and increasing inflation expectations. While the US dollar has an obvious link to commodity prices, the inflationary concerns are attracting more funds to commodities as they look for an inflation hedge. Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, joins Carlos Mera, head of Agri Commodity Markets Research, to di...

In the latest installment of the RaboResearch Agri Commodities podcast, Stefan Vogel and Michael Magdovitz review the explosive grain & oilseed price dynamics entering the critical weather market. Soy and corn have breached USD 15 and USD 6 per bushel, respectively, amid adverse weather that has left bears coming in from the cold. Join Stefan and Michael as they comprehensively address acreage, yi...

Over the last month, tensions in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia have boiled over. Troops from both sides have amassed on the border of eastern Ukraine, and now the Russian defense ministry has announced plans for blocking the Kerch Strait, a passageway connecting the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, for foreign war ships and other state ships. What does this mean, and what are the possible imp...

The April WASDE was destined to be overshadowed by its two explosive siblings – the March Prospective plantings and the new crop May WASDE. Nevertheless, the April WASDE contained important changes at the margins that help set the stage for broad upside price risks to corn, soy, wheat and cotton moving into the US weather market. Join the ACMR team as they discuss the WASDE report and price prospe...

The USDA's Prospective Plantings report came in far below expectations on corn and soy and heaped pressure on yields, whose weak performance would exacerbate seven-year high scarcity. CBOT G&O bears' expectations for an imminent G&O resupply have likely been dashed. Instead, consumers face growing trepidation ahead of an historic weather market and potential for scarcity to extend well into next y...

Lief Chiang and Oscar Tjakra join to discuss the 2021 outlook for edible oils in China, India, and Southeast Asia.   Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

After being ravaged by the pandemic, demand recovery expectations coupled with unrelenting Chinese imports led ICE#2 Cotton prices 30% higher than their pre-pandemic levels. Despite a recent sell-off, prices continue to trade at a premium – but how long can this continue? In this podcast, Agri Commodities Market Research and RaboResearch Australia converse on the current global supply and demand s...

Ryan Fitzmaurice, senior commodity strategist, joins Carlos Mera, head of agri commodities market research, to discuss speculation in commodities markets. Funds have reached some extreme positions in both energy and agriculture, and Rabobank analysts do not expect this to stop, as persistently low interest rates and inflation concerns continue to lead funds to invest more into commodities. Please...

The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19's economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand. P...

The 2020 bull run in agri commodities defied all expectations and proved immune to Covid-19's economic and social consequences. This is particularly true for grains and oilseeds. The engines driving this rally are expected to continue into 2021: weather, speculators, and good import demand. However, when it comes to softs, we see prices still suffering from good production and precarious demand. P...

The prospect of children coughing at your door may be scary enough at the moment, but there is also a lot of fear in agri commodity markets. In this special edition  podcast , we explore some of the worst-case scenarios that could lead to higher prices for wheat, cocoa, and sugar markets. This Halloween may not see many treats, but there could be plenty of tricks. Please read our disclaimer here:...

Vegetable prices surged near YTD highs last month, buoyed by strong demand and lower production. Join Rabobank's Oscar Tjakra and Michael Magdovitz as they analyze MDE Palm Oil and CBOT Soy Oil supply & demand fundamentals and the price risks ahead. Can the Q3 2020 momentum be sustained? Will slowing demand and stronger supply prospects cool the rally? Michael and Oscar discuss these points and th...

Carlos Mera joins Charlie Clack to address the growing presence of speculative activity in soft commodity markets – including sugar – and the reasons why. The duo look at how this – along with the fundamental outlook – is set to drive the sugar price. Please read our disclaimer here: https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/disclaimer

Charlie Clack joins Oscar Tjakra to talk opportunities in global cotton over the next decade, following our latest RaboResearch report. On the agenda this episode is the post-pandemic demand recovery, world consumption growth to 2029/30, and opportunities for cotton producers and exporters around the globe. Please read our disclaimer here:  https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417272/d...

In this G&O market update we cover the main drivers leading price moves across Corn, Soybean and Wheat markets. The weather has begun to show a greater influence on G&O markets in recent weeks as corn and spring wheat crops move through key development stages. At the time of writing, CBOT Corn prices have eased after an initial rally following lower than expected US stocks and planted acreage and...

While the supply side is not without concerns, demand has been dropping due to Covid-19. For now, harvests are going ahead more or less normally in top producer Brazil and also in Colombia. We expect global demand to drop by 0.8% YOY, the first drop in global coffee demand since 1995. The precariousness of demand in certain coffee markets continues to be the focus of attention, particularly in mar...

Brent Crude recovered over 30% so far in May, pushing vegetable oil prices higher. Soy and corn remained subdued in the midst of an abundance of US stocks, good weather, and rapidly progressing US plantings. In particular for soybeans, the pace of Brazilian shipments continues to surprise, with the volumes of US soybeans bought by China a little lackluster in the middle of the worsening rhetoric....

April witnessed unprecedented weakness in the energy sector and in emerging market currencies. Agri commodities markets were infected by these factors and continued their downward trend. Meanwhile, the threat of supply chains disruptions largely eased, as agricultural activities avoided major port and border closures, and the price risks shifted to demand destruction. Looking ahead, the spring pla...

Join the ACMR team as they discuss the wild ag commodity price swings amid market concerns for demand destruction and supply chain stability. For energy-related products like sugar, soy oil, palm oil, and corn, the energy price declines – resulting from Covid-19 and the internecine OPEC price war – are expected to cause substantial demand destruction for biodiesel and ethanol. For vital food and f...