Moody’s Talks – Behind the Bonds

Our view of credit fundamentals – a mix of financial and business conditions – has turned increasingly negative across sectors. We examine why industries like airlines and retail are under strain, while others like aerospace and defense are staying afloat.   Hosts : Tania Hall, Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings; Tom Coghlan, AVP-Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings    Guests: Sven Reinke, Managi...

Increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) is spurring massive investment in data centers, which could top $2 trillion in the next four years. But huge energy requirements and uncertainties over future computing needs may pose long-term credit risks to developers, landlords and investors.    Host: Louis Hau, Vice President - Senior Research Writer, Moody’s Ratings   Guests: John Medina, Senior...

From Tesla to Netflix, innovative technologies and market-disrupting products are still grabbing the attention of consumers and investors. In a rapidly changing market environment, we look at how to identify true disrupters at an early stage and how their credit quality evolves. We’ll also dive into industries being shaken up by disruptions: new weight loss drugs in the pharmaceutical sector and t...

US tariffs threaten a potential global trade war. Recent weeks have seen frequent shifts in US policy on tariffs as well as the announcement of counter moves from trade partners. What are the likely consequences for credit across different sectors of the US economy and more broadly across global markets?   Guest: Paloma San Valentin, Managing Director - North America Corporate Finance, Moody's’ Ra...

Moody’s first Private Credit Outlook predicts that this market will double by 2028 to more than $3 trillion of assets under management. Private credit should benefit from more volatile market conditions and from innovation which is attracting new kinds of customer but also generating new risks. Later in the episode, we look in depth at the surge in retail investor involvement in private credit. Gu...

The outlooks for corporates in North America, Latin America, China, Asia-Pacific and EMEA are now all stable. We discuss the drivers shaping those outlooks and the similarities and differences across regions. Then we’re taking a deeper dive into the improving credit fundamentals for global leveraged finance next year as interest rates decline and defaults ease. Guests: Paloma San Valentin, Managin...

In the opening segment, we discuss how a host of factors including substantial AI investment underpin our positive outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10 minutes, we assess which types of technology companies stand to benefit from all of this AI investment more than others. Guests:  Raj Joshi, Senior Vice President, Global Corporate...

M&A activity remains robust across corporate sectors, including pharmaceuticals, homebuilding, mining and telecommunications. In our opening segment, we focus in part on how the green transition is driving deals in the mining segment as companies look to control critical minerals used in renewable energy technologies. In our second segment (10:10), we delve into prospects, including M&A, for large...

India's large domestic market shields its companies from external shocks, whereas Indonesia's export-dependent commodity sector prompts government efforts to diversify growth. Guests: Rachel Chua, VP-Senior Analyst; Sweta Patodia, AVP-Analyst Host : Vittoria Zoli, Analyst, Credit Strategy & Guidance, Moody's Ratings Related Research: Nonfinancial Companies – India and Indonesia: Credit quality wil...

This month our analysts are discussing what’s driving our still positive outlook for the global aerospace and defense sector for the next 12-18 months. Defense budgets are up as a result of rising geopolitical tensions and we expect strong operating profit for these companies. But persistent supply chain issues are delaying the delivery of new planes from the largest manufacturers Boeing and Airbu...

The pharmaceutical market has exploded in recent years with the rise of new drugs to help treat obesity and diabetes. The shift marks a huge opportunity for the pharmaceutical sector, which is pursuing the diabetes and obesity markets with four blockbuster drugs today: Ozempic and Wegovy from Novo Nordisk, and Mounjaro and Zepbound from Eli Lilly. In the first segment Mike Levesque looks at credit...

The commodities sector isn’t looking rosy and that is largely due to the outsize influence of China, which is currently in the grip of an economic slowdown. These pressures come on top of geopolitical damage to trade and supply chains, and the energy transition which is increasing global appetite for some commodities and eroding it for others. Our analysts look in particular at the fortunes of ste...

The outlook for the global real estate market remains negative with the bumpy economy, tight financing conditions and the surge in remote work. In the US, we expect rental income growth for offices to remain poor overall and apartment income growth to moderate this year with supply up, mostly in parts of the Sunbelt. Globally, Japan is a bright spot with supply-demand dynamics in the commercial ma...

In our opening segment, we discuss the slight slowdown in global market share growth for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as some incentives to buy have ended, yet prices remain high. A scarcity of charging stations in Europe and the US also remains a deterrent for consumers. Our second segment, which starts at 9:40, focuses on the charging shortage and who will pay for expansion. Guests : Matthia...

Artificial Intelligence or AI is predicted to have a profound impact on many areas of business. In this episode of Behind the Bonds we assess where AI innovation is already showing significant potential. Which industries can expect to see improved productivity and what are the potential timelines for any positive impact on credit quality? We also discuss the disruptive potential of these new techn...

In 2024 we see an uneven picture for companies across the globe. For those in North America and Asia-Pacific, excluding China, the credit outlook is stable. But in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America the outlook is negative. Driving this testing global environment are higher for longer interest rates which are raising the cost of borrowing and re-financing. This is a particular c...

This year has been a very weak one for leveraged finance deals as aggressive global monetary tightening hit markets. In this episode we explain why we see a gradual improvement in 2024, with refinancings driving new issuance in the US and EMEA.  Guests : Chris Padgett, Associate Managing Director of North America Leveraged Finance Research and Jeanine Arnold, Senior Vice President of Leveraged Fin...

Retailers in North America and Europe are looking forward to another bustling holiday shopping season—but consumers may not be as eager this year as stores have hoped amid fairly high inflation, even with a strong labor market. Will 2024 get any better for retailers and makers of apparel? Later we look at the global transport sector—where container shipping continues to struggle, even while other...

Private credit lenders built stores of capital that we expect will be put to work competing with banks to fund a new wave of leveraged buyouts. In the first segment of this episode, we discuss LBO competition and the risks it poses. Later, our guest lays out the concentration of private credit among a handful of giant asset managers building their own, largely self-contained lending ecosystems. Gu...

Big technology companies have been on a wild ride over the past few years, with the pandemic-driven boom followed by an inevitable hangover as economic uncertainty loomed. In the first segment of this episode, we examine the outlook for the global diversified information technology sector over the next 12-18 months. Then at 10.02 we discuss how the European Chips Act will help the region’s semicon...

Airlines and airports are benefitting from booming demand from leisure travellers as people take to the skies for a well-deserved summer holiday. In the first segment of this episode, we look at what’s driving strong passenger traffic volumes at US and European airports and what operational challenges lie ahead. And then we explore the tailwinds keeping our outlook for the global airline industry...

Moody’s analysts discuss the economic and credit outlook for China, including the role of local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) and their debt burdens, and the latest on the property sector. Speakers : Lillian Li, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service; Jessie Tung, VP-Senior Credit Officer, Moody’s Investors Service Host : Vittoria Zoli, Analyst – Emerging Markets, Moody’s Inve...

We explore the impact that geopolitical tensions between the US and China are increasingly having on technology companies, particularly the vital semiconductor supply chain. Which companies are most affected and what are the implications for China’s domestic semiconductor industry? Then at 9.58, we delve into what is supporting revenue growth for global information technology services companies, a...

Our industry sector outlooks provide insight into the fundamental business and credit conditions that companies face. But what’s the picture across the 18 sector outlooks right now as macroeconomic conditions shift – which sectors are on the up and which face problems? At 10:35 we take a deep dive into an industry that is hitting the headlines: global real estate, where the sector outlook recently...

In this episode, we discuss China’s stabilizing property sales and improving funding conditions. Then at 9:00, we look at Chinese insurers’ and banks’ exposure to the country’s property sector. Guests: Kelly Chen from the Corporate Finance Group of Moody’s Investors Service, and Qian Zhu and Yulia Wan from the Financial Institutions Group.   Host and Segment Leads: Tania Hall, Livia Yap and Daniel...