Interest.com.au Breakfast Briefing

Australia's April CPI landed at 4.2% year-on-year this morning, below the 4.4% consensus and down from 4.6% in March. For the Reserve Bank, a second consecutive softer-than-expected inflation print strengthens the case for continued easing through 2026. The monthly moderation was led by a 7% fall in fuel prices, partly reflecting the halving of the fuel excise from 1 April. Housing costs remai...

Renewed military action in the Middle East is reshaping the near-term outlook for energy markets, and by extension, for central bank policy globally. US and Israeli forces struck Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, just hours after President Trump indicated that interim talks with Tehran were progressing. Oil markets reacted swiftly. West Texas crude rose USD 3.50 to just under USD...

American consumers are the most pessimistic on record. The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a historic low in May, its third consecutive monthly decline, with petrol prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures doing the damage. Year-ahead inflation expectations have risen to 4.8%, and long-run expectations have jumped from 3.5% to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the Iran-US stando...

Australia's labour market deteriorated sharply in April. Employment fell by 19,000 people, the jobless rate climbed to 4.5%, and the services sector moved into contraction after stalling in March. New business activity recorded its steepest fall in over four and a half years. The data keeps the conversation about RBA rate direction firmly alive. Globally, the picture is one of rising cost pres...

Oil supply dynamics are now directly shaping interest rate decisions across multiple economies, and this morning's briefing unpacks why that matters for Australia. Key developments overnight: US crude inventories fell by 7.9 million barrels last week, nearly three times the expected drawdown. With around 160 tankers still bottled up in the Persian Gulf under Iranian control, the supply outlook...

This morning's Breakfast Briefing leads with a significant move in global bond markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield has reached 4.67%, its highest point since 2023, while the 30-year yield is at levels not seen since 2007. Australia's 10-year bond yield opens at 5.10%. For property markets, the concern is real. Commercial real estate is already under pressure from weak demand. A sustained rise i...

This morning's key themes: energy market uncertainty, persistent cost pressures, and continued softness in Australian property. US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain at an impasse, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil sitting just above US$107 a barrel. That is keeping bond markets on edge, with the US 10-year yield at 4.59% and Australia's 10-year holding at 5.08%. Domestically, the...

This Monday's Breakfast Briefing unpacks a week of rising bond yields, geopolitical stress, and shifting rate expectations. Australia's 10 year yield opens at 5.08%, up 11 basis points for the week, reflecting a global repricing of risk. The China-US summit in Beijing disappointed markets, the Strait of Hormuz blockade pushes on with no resolution, and Japan has just posted its highest producer pr...

Today's Breakfast Briefing covers a day one letdown in Beijing, weak Chinese bank lending, rising freight costs, and what it all means for the Australian economy. Trump-Xi summit underway in Beijing, day one delivers little: Boeing order underwhelms, shares fall 3.6% Chinese bank lending turns negative in April, 10 billion yuan net vs 300 billion yuan expected US retail sales up 4.5% year-on-year...

This morning's briefing is dominated by broadening price pressures, with commodity markets sending a clear signal that supply-side stress is intensifying. Copper, sulfur, and aluminium have jumped to new highs, driven by tightening supply from the Middle East conflict. US producer prices rose 6% in the year to April, the sharpest move outside the pandemic period, and US crude stocks fell sharply f...

US inflation has climbed to a three-year high of 3.8 percent, driven by surging fuel and electricity costs with no clear relief in sight from the Middle East. Here in Australia, business margins are under pressure as cost growth outpaces pricing power. Plus, Japan's household spending is falling, Germany surprises to the upside, and markets are repricing rate cut expectations. Today's briefing cov...