Global Risk Profile by Tamuz Itai

Voter ID in the United States is treated as one fight. It is two checks that only look like one word. An election has to answer: is this person allowed to vote here — and is the person casting the ballot that person, only once. Eligibility. Identity. Most peer democracies bind those in a population file or a national roll, then point at that file with a card or a mark-off. France, Germany, Israel,...

China Is Closing the Undersea Gap — and Russia May Be Helping The United States can see China’s navy. For thirty years, it could also hear the part China was trying to hide. That is changing. Early Chinese nuclear submarines were loud. A 2009 U.S. Navy intelligence assessment put the Type 094 ballistic-missile boat in the same noise neighborhood as 1970s Soviet SSBNs. The older Type 091s were nick...

Cyber privateers are increasingly targeting US critical infrastructure, posing severe risks to national security and operational safety. In the first half of 2026, North Korea-linked groups logged more documented advanced persistent threat incidents than China and Russia combined. That is not a crime wave. It is statecraft. This episode examines the rise of cyber privateers: hacker groups that ope...

When a catastrophic glacial collapse struck the China-Nepal border, millions of cubic meters of pulverized ice and rock tore down the Gyirong and Trishuli river valleys, wiping out border posts, settlements, and vital infrastructure. Yet while Nepal reported the tragedy with raw transparency, across the border in Tibet, the Chinese Communist Party deployed a familiar playbook: strict metric suppre...

For months the Strait of Hormuz was treated as Iran’s ultimate card — a chokepoint that could shut down a fifth of the world’s oil at will. The reality was more complicated. This episode of Global Risk Profile examines how a systematic U.S. campaign against Iranian sensors, escorts, mines, and insurance barriers gradually eroded that leverage. It also looks at why public shipping data lagged, why...

The public fight over U.S.-Canada trade talks is about tariffs and sovereignty. The harder issue is Chinese-linked transshipment through Canada and Mexico — and whether USMCA preferential access has become a back door into the American market. In this episode I look at the recent breakdown in bilateral talks, the competing public narratives from Washington and Ottawa, and the structural problem un...

How Ideological Subversion and the Outrage Economy Are Turning Neighbors into Enemies. Ten years ago, political disagreement usually stayed within the bounds of policy. Today it feels like standing on a fault line. Disagreement is no longer treated as a difference of opinion—it is treated as moral failure. You are no longer someone with a different view; you are a threat. Political scientists call...

In a world dominated by AI, automation, and hyper-efficiency, a bizarre paradox has taken hold. The daily, ordinary tasks of the pre-industrial world haven't died out. Instead, they’ve been elevated, hyper-refined, and preserved as stylized status symbols for the elite. Welcome to the era of the Luxury Fossil. In this episode, we explore the fascinating economic forces of the "Barbell Economy" tha...

For decades, global multinationals lived by a comfortable fiction: seikei bunri—the total separation of politics and economics. Corporate boards assumed they could rely on the U.S.-Japan security alliance for defense while embedding their supply chains, factories, and growth metrics deep inside the Chinese mainland. That peacetime luxury is officially over. In this episode, we break down the compo...

For thirty years, Western military planners operated under a dangerous assumption: that modern wars would be short, surgical, and won by the side with the best technology. We optimized our defense industrial base for "Peacetime Efficiency," prioritizing corporate mergers, lean supply chains, and just-in-time logistics. But as the conflicts of the 2020s—culminating in the staggering missile expendi...

The current ceasefires with Iran and Hezbollah are tactical pauses — not peace. In this episode, we break down the real situation on the ground in Israel, the fractured nature of the Iranian regime, the challenges with Lebanon, and why expectations need to be managed carefully. From the Black Knight problem to the “ripe melon” moment, this is a realistic assessment of where we actually stand. Cont...

We are currently witnessing the dismantling of an experiment of globalization "with Chinese characteristics," And more broadly, why the post-war rules-based order is being torn down and what is taking its place. Whether you view the actions of the Trump administration as a geopolitical correction or a "wrecking ball," the ground is being cleared for a world of sovereign nation-states. We dive into...

How do you fund a drone program while your economy is collapsing? You use the blockchain. In 2026, cryptocurrency has become the ultimate double-edged sword. For ordinary Iranians, it’s a vital lifeline against 50% inflation. But for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), it’s a $3 billion shadow arsenal used to procure missile parts and fund regional proxies. We’re pulling back the curtain...

In this video, we explore the "Zhuge Liang Choice"—a grim strategic dilemma named after a 14th-century Chinese legend that is currently playing out across the Middle East. From the rubble of Gaza to the displacement in southern Lebanon and the high-stakes ultimatum delivered to Iran in March 2026, we examine what happens when leaders are forced to choose between enduring endless "low-level bleedin...

Are you noticing that everyday life feels increasingly polarized? Fast food or tasting menus. Budget flights with fees or luxurious business class. Reliable mid-range hotels struggling while luxury properties thrive. A new car averaging nearly $50,000 — pushing many families toward used cars or heavy debt. This isn’t random. It’s the “barbell economy” — where value concentrates at the extremes (ul...

In this episode, we discuss the latest iran news concerning President Trump's recent threats to the Iranian regime. Many analysts and officials are debating whether Donald Trump will follow through on his warnings regarding the Strait of Hormuz. We explore the implications of these developments on us iran relations and the broader middle east political landscape, touching on national security conc...

An exclusive interview with Global Risk Profile's host, Tamuz Itai, in "The Perspectives with Cathy Zhang" channel. Itai breaks down the US-Israel war on Iran three weeks in: massive tactical successes against Iran's navy, missiles, and leadership; the regime's "degraded but functioning" status; why sparse daily missile launches still force Israelis into shelters 5–15 times a day; and the high-sta...

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed in March 2026—tanker traffic has collapsed over 90%, prices are spiking, and Gulf oil is trapped. Bypass pipelines like Saudi's East-West and UAE's Fujairah are maxed out, but they cover only a fraction of flows. History offers a solution: the 1930s Kirkuk-to-Mediterranean pipeline corridor, once shut by politics, could be revived via the Levant land brid...

Trump's Foreign Policy: Wins with Pragmatists, Walls with Ideologues In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we examine Donald Trump's foreign policy record as we approach the midpoint of his second term in early 2026. Trump’s signature style—hard bargaining, personal rapport, and leverage—delivers bold transactional successes when dealing with pragmatic, interest-driven leaders. Yet it faced dead...

Join us for the latest Israel news as we discuss IDF's claim of eliminating Hezbollah's intelligence chief in Beirut. Geopolitical columnist Tammuz Itai provides expert insights into Iran's proxies and their reach across the Middle East. This discussion sheds light on the ongoing Lebanon news and regional tensions, as well as potential end-states for the current war.

For decades, globalization was treated as a self-correcting system. Markets would integrate. Trade would expand. Political systems would converge. But what if the equilibrium was more fragile than we believed? Following Episode 1, in Episode 2 of this 2-part series, we zoom out. The domestic tensions we discussed previously did not emerge in isolation — they were shaped by a global transformation...

Why does the Federal Reserve feel like it’s always in crisis? Every few years the Fed becomes the center of political gravity — accused of corruption, incompetence, capture, or manipulation. Yet almost no public debate stops to ask a basic question: What does the Federal Reserve actually do? In this episode of Global Risk Profile, we step away from slogans and look at the heart of economics and fi...

In January 2026, China’s highest-ranking military officers were suddenly placed under investigation — including General Zhang Youxia, Xi Jinping’s closest military confidant. This was not an isolated corruption case. It was the culmination of years of escalating purges inside the People’s Liberation Army — a campaign that has hollowed out the very command structure Xi built to modernize China’s mi...

Did the U.S. just signal a new way of confronting China—without confronting China directly? In early January 2026, two developments stood out as not business as usual: the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in a U.S. military operation, and unusually explicit U.S. warnings to Iran amid nationwide protests and a violent crackdown. Individually, each event can be explained on its own ter...