Deep Economic Thoughts

Wall Street's perfect AI exit strategy. Everyone is screaming "buy" on everything AI and Nvidia-adjacent. But here's what they aren't telling you: The IPO window is wide open for one reason only—to let insiders cash out. In today's episode, we connect the dots between the AI hype machine, the surge in tech filings, and the quiet exodus of early investors. Don't let bankers use your capital to fund...

Recorded from Hong Kong, this episode is a personal reflection on a major milestone: the 2025 expansion of our asset management company from its SEC-regulated base in Los Angeles to a new SFC-regulated entity in Asia. Marking nearly 30 years in investment management (since 1996), this move is a strategic step to enrich our research mosaic. We discuss why being physically present in a major financi...

In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities. For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offere...

Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US. For more research highlights, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/blog Copyright © 2025, AWAIM® Investmen...

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, discusses the historical relationship dynamic demonstrated by a falling US Dollar value and the resulting impact on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. Specifically, he focuses on the decade from 2005 to 2015, which was marked by the Great Financial Crisis and a USD value that oscillated wildly from -15% to +19%. For details on the Research Highlight di...

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview. Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT. For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright ©2025, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offe...

Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education. (Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA) For more information, please visit: https://www.alignewealth.com/ Copyright © 2024, AWAIM® Investment advisory services offere...

In preparing for my September 2024 Forbes article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy. Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at:  https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-09-04-2024 For more information, please visit: https://www.align...

As discussed in detail last summer ( see  Research Highlights  and  Forbes article ), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards equities or away from them. Recall that Earnings Yield is equal to Earnings Per Share divided by its Sto...

In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM® , explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate high price correlations. However, the past few years have not held this relationship. Ivan examines wha...

The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the impact of A.I. in total factor productivity over the next 10 years. For more information on this Working P...

For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long, unintended consequences become manifest across marketplace participants. To view the companion chart to...

The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ratios may indicate stocks are broadly undervalued. Currently, this ratio stands at  186% . However, what if you applied this formula to specific sectors to d...

Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household savings, debt levels, and interest rate on credit cards. This discussion focuses on the confluence of these metrics to illustrate an increasingly stressed o...

In this episode, Founder & CIO, Ivan Illan discusses the myriad issues around having a significantly positive US Output Gap - an important economic metric that reveals underlying inflationary pressures in an economy. For more information, charts and other details related to this episode, please visit:  https://www.alignewealth.com/blog/research-highlights-02-07-2024 © 2024 AWAIM®

REPLAY: On-Air Live interview of Ivan Illan on AM830 from "The Bruce Cook Conversation" orignally broadcast on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6PM PST. Ivan and Bruce chat about various economic issues impacting folks today from interest rates and taxes to debt and the upcoming election. Wide scope of topics covered and additional commentary on domestic and international risks within the capital market...

In this final episode for 2023, bestselling Dummies author, Forbes Finance Council member, Founder & CIO Ivan Illan , shares some preliminary insights as to what may play out during 2024 for both stock and bond markets globally. He highlights the period beginning March 2022, which coincides with the Federal Reserve's initiating a restrictive U.S. monetary policy. Since then, stock and bond markets...

Original Air Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:30PM PST Listen to the replay from the on-air interview of Founder & Chief Investment Officer Ivan Illan conducted by The Conversation's Host Bruce Cook. Ivan returns to the show answering a wide variety of questions about the US economy, upcoming elections, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. https://www.am830.net/show/bruce-cook-show/ To learn mo...

This episode includes references to data shared in Ivan's upcoming Forbes.com article tentatively entitled, "For Decades Fed Funds Remained Higher Than The Inflation Rate, May Be Once Again". Citing nearly 50 years of historical averages regarding the Effective Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year Mortgage Rate, 10-2 Year US Treasury Spread, and the 10 Year US Treasury, Ivan discusses how normal it has bee...

A more casual companion piece to Ivan's article published in Forbes on October 19, 2023, entitled " What A Flattening Yield Curve Means For Future Fiscal Fitness " Discussion on the importance of understanding the segment of the yield curve to which an investor has exposure. Also, a review of the basics on the time value of money - a related concept to yield curve dynamics. For more information, t...

In this episode Ivan cites recent PMI declines, while reframing the data that often minimizes the manufacturing sector's share of and relevance to the U.S. economy. A discussion follows on how nominal GDP data is referenced routinely, instead of real GDP. The conclusion is surprising to many - even finance professionals - regarding the enduring significance of the manufacturing sector. Technologic...

In this episode I talk about the recent US government debt downgrade by Fitch, why it happened, why it's not a big surprise, and what it might mean for everyone going forward. © 2023 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®

In this episode, Ivan Illan rejoined Bruce Cook on  The Bruce Cook Conversation , which was broadcast live on-air throughout Southern California and live streamed on KLAA AM 830 Angels Radio on Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 6PM PT. As a returning show guest, Ivan offered new perspectives and insights to many questions that Bruce presented regarding the state of the U.S. economy and how people might cons...

If you're wondering why your investment portfolio seems to be lagging the S&P 500 Index so far this year, it's because the market has bad breadth. Bad (or, in this case meaning, very narrow) market breadth illustrates that only a very few minority of companies are responsible for the majority of the return seen in the index. In this episode, I share insghts into this dynamic (e.g., Year-to-date on...

Yesterday (Mother's Day), I returned as a half-hour guest on  Bruce Cook Conversations on AM830 Angels Radio. This podcast contains the full interview replay which was broadcast live throughout Southern California on Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:30PM PT. Topics covered included Bruce's rapid fire questions on the state of the U.S. economy, debt ceiling negotiations, China, student loan debt bailout,...