In The Know with George & Evan

Labor and One Nation are tied on 26% in DemosAU’s latest poll for Capital Brief, but the Coalition is up four points and winning back voters it lost to One Nation. With cost of living now the top issue for one in two voters, the race is more fluid than the primary vote suggests. Show Notes: DemosAU national poll for Capital Brief, 23–26 October 2026 (1,500 respondents) Discussion topics (01:14) -...

DemosAU's latest MRP of about 9,700 voters puts Labor on 84 seats and a majority, while One Nation's rural and regional vote falls seven points. Stronger preference flows put the Coalition ahead in Groom and Herbert and in both seats One Nation holds, Farrer and New England. Discussion topics (00:00) - Hook (02:28) - Labor heads for a majority as One Nation slips (06:06) - Why One Nation i...

The latest DemosAU poll finds two thirds of voters back the right to opt out of social media algorithms, 47 per cent would rather cut tobacco taxes than fund more enforcement, and 60 per cent support using super for a house deposit. Federally the Coalition slips back to third on 20 per cent, while Victoria tightens to 52–48 ahead of the state election. DISCUSSION TOPICS (00:00) - Hook (01:08) - Th...

One Nation now polls in the low-to-mid 20s in every mainland state, but the vote went backwards in four of the five polls run across August and early September and rose only in Western Australia. With New South Wales and Victoria both heading to elections, the harder question is conversion: which urban seats are genuinely winnable, how far Liberal preferences leak, and whether Pauline Hanson chase...

Pauline Hanson's rating among women fell from 39 per cent positive in June to 26 in August, while her rating among men barely moved. One Nation's primary dropped five points to 24 in the same period. No party gets to 50 per cent plus one off half the electorate, which leaves the open question of whether this is one bad month or the first sign of a ceiling. George Hasanakos works through wh...

New Senate modelling from the same 9,300-voter MRP cuts the Coalition to 18 senators, with Matt Canavan and Jacinta Price both exposed on their own tickets. That leaves a One Nation government commanding 16 senators in a house of 76, and revives the blocked-supply arithmetic that produced the 1975 crisis. Show Notes: DemosAU: the Senate MRP and methodology Discussion Topics: (00:00) - Hook (01:15)...

New MRP modelling of 9,300 voters puts Labor on 68 seats, One Nation on 60 and the Liberals on 13, with six crossbenchers deciding who governs. With every major party polling in the 20s, small shifts in the national vote now produce wild seat swings. Topics (00:00) - Hook (02:22) - Labor 68, One Nation 60 in a knife-edge house (05:42) - Two exclusive scenarios for who forms government (09:16) - As...

A clear 61% of Australians agree with Pauline Hanson that immigration should be substantially reduced. Agreement ends there: just 25% back her monoculture pitch, and new DemosAU polling shows her own approval, not her vote, is what now caps One Nation. Chapters (00:00) - Intro (01:24) - Why One Nation's vote slipped after the press club (03:18) - Monoculture pitch costs Hanson beyond immigrati...

Labor's usual advantage with women has flipped into an 11-point gap behind One Nation, with older women moving right and younger women drifting to the Greens. Is this a Pauline Hanson moment or a durable realignment? Chapters (00:00) - Intro (01:13) - Labor's gender gap flips as women back One Nation (08:12) - Why Pauline Hanson wins over older women voters (15:00) - Bondi, cost of living...

If a vote for one party is really a vote for another, where do those voters go? DemosAU modelled four removal scenarios from an 8,000-respondent MRP, and the answer reshapes the case for a merged right... at least for One Nation. Chapters (00:00) - Intro (01:38) - Why the two-party vote keeps sliding since 2007 (07:03) - Modelling what your vote really means in 2026 (13:05) - A merged right adds u...

Labor's negative gearing overhaul is a deliberate pitch to under-34s, while Farrer's 40% One Nation primary reframes the strategic question on the right of politics. Chapters (00:00) - Intro (01:52) - Labor's housing tax reform targets younger voters (07:10) - Labor's broken promise reframes the election risk (11:15) - Immigration leads, but renters blame the tax code (13:54) - Greens and One Nati...

Is housing tax reform still political poison? With a fragmented vote, dissatisfied under-55s, and a 7-point drop in institutional trust, the calculus has shifted. Guest: Kate Jones, Non-Executive Director at Amplify. Learn more here: https://www.amplifyaus.org. Chapters(00:00) - Intro (02:14) - The budget of the century: housing takes centre stage(05:48) - Why 2026 isn't 2019 on tax reform (09:14)...

Capital Brief's Matthew Franklin join In The Know to discuss the DemosAU's new national poll which points to a rapidly fragmenting electorate, where economic pressure, global instability, and leadership perceptions are reshaping the balance between Labor, the Coalition, and a surging but constrained One Nation. Chapters (00:00) - Intro (00:08) - Global crises reshape the political environm...

Australia’s electoral landscape is undergoing a structural realignment, with new modelling suggesting the Coalition’s traditional dominance on the right is collapsing and being replaced by a rapidly ascending One Nation, raising a central question: is this a temporary disruption or a durable reshaping of the party system? Chapters (00:00) - Intro (01:11) - Defining MRP and how the model works (03:...

The South Australian election result raises a deeper strategic question: is the rise of One Nation a transient protest vote, or evidence of a structural realignment reshaping Australian politics at both state and federal levels? Chapters (00:00) - Intro (00:15) - Setting the frame: polling, politics and the SA election (01:15) - The credibility test for pollsters and what got validated (02:20) - M...