The Mercer Ledger

Iran has shuffles its internal administration. In doing so, it has exposed itself to a dangerous miscalculation. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

How Iran sees the destruction of its military and economy as a “win.” This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Washington is proclaiming victory in the Iran / US conflict. The reality is far more nuanced. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

How Iran constructed its three directions of power projection, and what it means for the Iran/US conflict. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

A peace framework for the Middle East is still developing. This weeks episodes examines the indicators. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Every time the West negotiates with the civilian Iranian government, the process ends in failure. Why? The secret is in understanding the two pillar government structure inside of the Iran, the civilian government and the IRGC. Today, we look at that structure. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.subst...

The flood of oil to market is being held back by the geopolitical drama of the Middle East. Once that drama ends, the oil drama will play out. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

There appears to be a deal happening between Iran and the US. It will fail. Listen to today’s episode to understand why. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Why can’t Washington and Iran agree on peace? It is because each has a “vision” of peace, and they are diametrically opposed to one another. Find out more in today’s episode. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

It has become clear that “peace” is not an option between Washington and Iran. But the world cannot tolerate the extortion of the Strait of Hormuz. In this episode we review a likely path Washington may take to neutralize the Middle East threat. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

The handwriting is on the wall for Iran. The regime has no intention of negotiating a settlement with Washington. This leaves Washington with two options: -A sustained, protracted painful war of attrition with Iran, or completely remove the IRGC that destroys the global economy or -Fundamentally break the Iranian government structures and trample the Iranian government into submission. Washington...

The Iranian economy isn’t heading toward collapse. It has already collapsed. Understand the difference of how peacetime and wartime metrics operate. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Pundits are pointing to Iran’s $23 Billion Reserve earned from the first part of this year as evidence that the regime can withstand the US for a prolonged engagement. This fundamentally misunderstands the true breakdown of the operation reality, and what happens to that money. In short, Iran is fundamentally bankrupt. This episode tracks why that is. This is a public episode. If you would like to...

The Iranian regime claims to not be negotiating with the US. This is false, and its all about how it gets spun. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

The United States firepower is a deep reserve, but mainstream media is confusing niche inventory with overall capacity. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Saudi Arabia is of utmost importance within the broader Middle East. If there will be a peace framework instituted by the Trump Administration, the Saudis will be key to achieving that goal. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Iran’s position is weak, and their bluff is running out of time. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

The Strait of Hormuz drama is withholding a massive flood of oil to market. The ongoing hostilities will eventually resolve, unleashing this oversupply onto the market. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

The high stakes gable between the US and Iran is burning hot. There will be no total war, or a long attrition, but a ceasefire. But how we get there remains to be seen. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

The math favors a freeze, a new ceasefire, and is the only real option that satisfies the goals of all players. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Mojtaba Khameni is in a precarious state. The Iranian regime is not in the position for a sustain war. We look at the situation on the ground and what history shows Iran leadership will do when faced with the prospect of the end. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Why the Board of Peace Charter contains the ingredients of its own failure. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

Senator Lindsey Graham, prior to his death on July 11, was working toward of goal of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. His death has impacts for the development of a Middle East peace framework behind the scenes. Listen in to learn more. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com

A clear look at the recent surge in oil prices and why it may be hiding a larger supply story. Saudi price cuts, OPEC+ production increases, and delays in the Strait of Hormuz are building pressure behind the scenes. The higher-probability outcome is a price drop once the current tensions ease. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonu...

A closer look at the Charter of the Board of Peace. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit wardmercer.substack.com