The John Batchelor Show

Gregory Copley analyzes China's recent ICBM test in the South China Sea, interpreting it as "Wolf Warrior diplomacy" designed to signal naval reach to the US and regional neighbors. Australia is countering this threat through the AUKUSand Five Eyes alliances, though Copley notes a lack of cohesion between current heads of government. He highlights Canada's significant pivot under Mark Carney towar...

Jonathan Schanzer examines the fractured state of Hamas, noting the group currently controls only 30% of Gaza while facing internal discord over potential disarmament. International negotiators are discussing a "disarm first" condition, which Hamas leadership currently rejects, demanding an Israeli withdrawal instead—a term Schanzer deems unacceptable to any Israeli leader. The conversation turns...

Liz Peek discusses the resilience of the American economy, noting that high-end consumer spending remains strong despite recession fears. Small businesses are reportedly "humming," with hiring and profitability reaching their highest levels since 2026. This economic momentum is increasingly driven by a massive boom in AI development, which has created an exponential demand for long-term capital. H...

TABLE OF CONTENTS, THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 8-17-2026.Bill Roggio reflects on the five-year anniversary of the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, highlighting the accuracy of the maps he built that predicted the Taliban's takeover. He describes the withdrawal as disorganized, noting there was zero plan for the Afghan government or military equipment. Roggio specifically criticizes the abandonment of Bag...

Jeremy Zakis reports on the looming weather crisis in Australia, where meteorologists predict a "super El Niño" combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This rare combination is expected to cause extreme drought and record-breaking temperatures in New South Wales and Victoria. Zakis warns that a wet winter has fueled rampant eucalyptus growth, creating a massive volume of flammable oils. Thes...

Richard Epstein critiques Senator Bernie Sanders' characterization of Israeli politicians as "extremists," viewing it as a provocative attempt to shift American Democratic policy. Epstein argues that a two-state solution is fundamentally unstable because an autonomous Palestinian region cannot be prevented from remilitarizing. He contends that proponents of this solution often act in bad faith, ig...

Samuel Ben-Ur discusses the ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza, focusing on Jared Kushner's meeting with Hamas leadership to discuss a 15-point peace plan. Ben-Ur explains that Israel rejected the plan because it lacked a verifiable mechanism for Hamas's disarmament before Israeli withdrawal. He dismisses reports of famine in Gaza as propaganda, noting that international bodies currently view aid...

Alan Tonelson exposes a massive Chinese tariff evasion scheme, where goods are rerouted through countries like Cambodia and Mexico to bypass U.S. duties. This "scam" is estimated to cost the U.S. up to $26 billion in annual revenue. While the White House is developing AI-based systems to strengthen customs enforcement, there is criticism regarding the lack of direct penalties against Beijing. Tone...

Kamran Bokhari examines the evolution of the Iranian regime, arguing that the Supreme Leader has become a figurehead for the IRGC and security establishment. He suggests that the war has accelerated a process of internal fragmentation, though the elite remains united by a shared fear of collapse. While public uprisings have gone "underground," the regime continues to conduct mass arrests to preven...

David Daoud details the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, noting that Hezbollah's refusal to disarm has prompted the IDF to prepare for a major operation. Israel is currently conducting "clearing operations" to destroy Hezbollah installations near the Al-Aishiyeh Ridge. Daoud highlights the recent deaths of senior commanders from the elite Radwan and Badr units, which in...

John Hardie reports on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, specifically Russia's rejection of a Black Sea ceasefire in favor of striking Ukrainian food supplies. He notes that while Russia maintains a maritime blockade advantage, Ukraine is retaliating with high-precision long-range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and defense plants. Hardie suggests that the Kremlin may be receptive to a mor...

Edmund Fitton-Brown argues that the U.S. is "running out of ideas" regarding economic pressure on Iran, labeling a land blockade as far-fetched due to uncooperative neighbors. He suggests that secondary sanctions on Chinese "teapot" refineries are a more practical tool. Regarding Yemen, Fitton-Brown observes that the Houthis have become emboldened by U.S. irresolution and are pushing south to capt...

Malcolm Hoenlein provides an overview of the October 27th Israeli election, explaining the complex "list" voting system and Netanyahu's challenges. He discusses the "Board of Peace" negotiations, stressing that the central hurdle remains Hamas's refusal to disarm before Israeli withdrawal. Hoenlein also touches on regional tensions, including Hezbollah's rearming and internal unrest in Iran fueled...

Janatyn Sayeh explores the "secret plan" of Iranian hardliners to escalate regional conflict and raise costs for the United States. He notes that while the Iranian economy is an existential vulnerability, the regime is willing to ride out sanctions to maintain its Islamist agenda. Sayeh critiques the viability of a U.S. land blockade, citing the difficulty of gaining cooperation from neighbors lik...

Bridget Toomey analyzes the reawakening of the Yemeni Civil War, noting that the Houthis are launching fresh offensives to seize the Red Sea coast and the Bab el-Mandeb choke point. While the Houthis claim to target Saudiinterests, their primary focus has shifted to defeating government-backed ground troops. Toomey highlights the extensive use of drone technology by both sides, with the Houthis de...

Bill Roggio reflects on the five-year anniversary of the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, highlighting the accuracy of the maps he built that predicted the Taliban's takeover. He describes the withdrawal as disorganized, noting there was zero plan for the Afghan government or military equipment. Roggio specifically criticizes the abandonment of Bagram Air Base, which he believes was the superior evacu...

Padraic Scanlan — Multi-Part, Part Two: Padraic Scanlan examines the British government's response to the Great Famine, highlighting how ideological commitments to free trade and to civilizing the poor exacerbated the tragedy. Prime Minister Robert Peel initially attempted relief through public works projects and the secret importation of American maize, known as Indian corn. However, these measur...

Padraic Scanlan — Multi-Part, Part One: Padraic Scanlan explores the deep-seated historical and economic causes of the Great Irish Famine, beginning with the haunting folk memory of Queen Victoria's visit to Skibbereen, a village that became an icon of social collapse and starvation. While the crisis was triggered by the failure of potato crops, Scanlan emphasizes that the vulnerability of the Iri...

Gary Rivlin — Multi-Part, Part Two: Gary Rivlin turns to the clash of ideologies and corporate power plays defining the current AI era. Rivlin details the divide between accelerationists, who believe AI progress should not be hindered by regulation, and doomers, who fear catastrophic risks. He notes that while the public is often fearful, safety measures and government standards, similar to those...

Gary Rivlin — Multi-Part, Part One: Gary Rivlin, author of AI Valley: Microsoft, Google, and the Trillion-Dollar Race to Cash In on Artificial Intelligence, explores the origins and personalities driving the modern artificial intelligence revolution. Rivlin begins by demythologizing AI, focusing on central figures such as Reid Hoffman, a polymath whose childhood obsession with strategy games and t...

Londinium Chronicles — Multi-Part, Part Three: Gaius (John Batchelor) and Germanicus (Michael Vlahos) close with the death of diplomacy as a geopolitical tool. Gaius provides a detailed historical account of the Japanese surrender in 1945, noting that even firebombing and atomic weapons failed to move the military Big Six until the Emperorintervened with a secret recording, the imperial rescript....

Londinium Chronicles — Multi-Part, Part Two: Gaius (John Batchelor) and Germanicus (Michael Vlahos) turn to the ragged ends of wars and the long-term consequences of current strategic decisions. Germanicus argues that by handcrafting the war in Ukraine and blockading Russia, the United States has inadvertently fostered a united Eurasia, a powerful condominium of Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongy...

Londinium Chronicles — Multi-Part, Part One: Gaius (John Batchelor) and Germanicus (Michael Vlahos) meet in the wine bar in Londinium, 92 AD, where they are overseeing its expansion during a rainy summer. They discuss a potential partnership with a Greek vintner in Gaul, likely from the Gironde valley, who wishes to market a specific vintage to retired centurions. The conversation shifts to modern...

Jeremy Zakis: Jeremy Zakis details the melodrama and unexpected struggles of the Australian cricket team during their series against Bangladesh in Darwin. Despite playing on home soil, the Australians fell significantly behind, leading to visible frustration and on-field tantrums. Zakis highlights an incident in which Mitchell Starc yelled at a Bangladeshi batter, as well as other players protesti...

Jeremy Zakis: Jeremy Zakis explains that Australia is entering a super El Niño cycle, exacerbated by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole that dries out the continent. He warns that recent winter rain has fueled undergrowth that will soon become tinder-dry wildfire kindling. Shifting to wildlife, Zakis recounts a fascinating experiment in which magpies cooperated to remove GPS trackers from one another,...