Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee

“We are going to see consumer pain, and particularly on the lower-income side of things,” says David Saitowitz, head of US liquid credit at ICG, a global alternative asset manager with $127 billion in AUM, on the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. That means certain sectors could get hurt while others do very well, he says, adding that it’s a trend he’s already seeing. Anything consumer...

Private credit firms, including Hayfin, are still willing to lend to software companies, says Marc Chowrimootoo, co-head of direct lending at alternative asset manager Hayfin, on the latest episode of the Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. “If that call comes in, we absolutely take that call,” says Chowrimootoo, on how he responds to a request from a private equity fund for a software LBO fina...

The current period is a “really important rite of passage” for retail access to private credit and direct lending, says Tristram Leach, head of investments Europe at Apollo Global Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “The five percent number is there for a reason,” says Leach, speaking about recent outflows from semi-liquid private credit funds that have seen a picku...

“We’ve never had more undrawn capital,” says Jonathan Dorfman, chief investment officer at Napier Park Global Capital, a $40bn alternative credit manager. Napier Park has been prepping for a repricing of financial assets that predates the Iran war and the software crisis, Dorfman said in the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Have ready cash and take advantage to buy assets that are...

“Private markets and private credit can be very, very helpful,” says Andrew Davies, in reference to the emerging dislocations he sees in financial markets, on the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. Davies is the head of credit at CVC Capital Partners, a global private markets manager with more than EUR 200bn in AUM. That help could be in the form of helping banks that are struggling to...

“You are going to hit a little bit of a wall because of power. You’re going to hit a little bit of a wall, because of the sheer capital that’s supposed to be there to finance that piece,” says Joel Holsinger, co-head of alternative credit at Ares Management, on the latest edition of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Holsinger expects to see a slowdown, because the current level is “probably unsustain...

The investing environment has gotten hard, says Christopher Sheldon, co-head of credit and capital markets at KKR, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “It’s adult swim only.” There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market, and much of the investor community is trying to figure out what playing field they’re on, explains Sheldon. He discusses KKR’s latest investor letter, titled CTR...

Europe has mostly missed the AI boom that’s driven a large part of US economic growth, says Mathew Cestar, president of Arini Capital Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, taped in the London offices of the alternative asset manager. But that actually makes European credit more appealing, because while the intersection of technology and AI is an exciting equity story,...

“We have this great tool out there called AI, and we haven’t 100% figured out how to implement it yet,” says Mark Jenkins, co-president and head of global credit & insurance at Carlyle, on the latest edition of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Jenkins predicts that the next stage is going to be how corporates implement AI into their workflows, and that the process is “really in the first innin...

“Whether it be in the high yield bond market or in the leveraged loan market, even the hint or threat of AI impeding on really any sector – you see pretty significant downside,” says Mitch Garfin, co-head of leveraged finance at the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Garfin is constructive on the market generally, with growth continuing...

“It’s going to be a slow build, and we think a sustained multi-year increase in activity,” says David Miller, head of private credit and equity at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee, speaking about M&A and LBOs. The geopolitical headlines haven’t yet changed the economic picture, says Miller. But over time, they may impact on confidence...

R.J. Gallo, deputy CIO of fixed income at Federated Hermes, addresses the recent DOJ move to investigate Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell and the possible impact on monetary policy, on the latest episode of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Gallo, who will take up the fixed income CIO role in May, says we might see a more divergent FOMC where the votes actually matter. “Does that make them mo...

“I come into the year extremely bullish about fixed income and credit in general,” says John Lloyd, global head of multi-sector credit at Janus Henderson, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. The asset manager oversees nearly half a trillion dollars of AUM. Lloyd speaks about how markets are shrugging off some recent big geopolitical events because they do not impact earnings to...

While credit is “probably a four-letter word right now,” it is doing reasonably well, says Tom Majewski, founder and managing partner at Eagle Point Credit Management. “But headlines around the space will continue, and perhaps that unto itself creates some credit challenges,” he adds on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Majewski unpacks the First Brands collapse and fraud in gen...

The degree of inflation the past few years has stretched the ‘K’ that defines the K-shaped economy, says Cindy Beaulieu, chief investment officer at Conning Noth America, in the latest ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’ podcast. Asset valuations and home prices have further added to the pressure. The labour market is central to consumers in both the top and bottom of the K. The upper cohort are parti...

The driver for 2026 will be the real step-change in capex requirements all around the AI data boom and the needs of hyperscalers, said Fabianna Del Canto, co-head of EMEA capital markets at MUFG, on the latest episode of the ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’ podcast. “The absolute quantum required by the data centres dwarfs really any other type of infra-spend that we’re seeing,” said Del Canto. Amo...

Innovation on the liability side is allowing insurance companies to change their funding costs and be more competitive, says Gary Zhu, deputy chief investment officer of insurance at AllianceBernstein (AB), in the latest episode of ‘Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee’. Zhu discusses the proliferation of insurance capital into private assets. He explains that dynamic has to do with lengthening lifespans...

The end of the US government shutdown has paved the way for a “renewed melt up,” says Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Not just risk assets like equities and credit, but things like gold and Swiss francs, as people worry about how this ends – even as the tide of easy money pushes everything upwards, says King, formerly Citi’s global mar...

The bankruptcies of auto sector firms First Brands and Tricolor Holdings hold “lessons for the future” for credit investors, says Tetragon co-CIO Dagmara Michalczuk on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. “The governance issue, although it seems like a soft and fuzzy idea, is incredibly important,” Michalczuk says. “Investing with folks that are not transparent – that has its risks...

“There are lots of mixed signals out there,” says Chris Wright, president of Crescent Capital Group, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. That’s creating uncertainty. “When we think about the investment environment, we approach it with caution.” On the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor, Wright doesn’t see them as canaries in the coalmine or a tipping point in the economy...

Bret Leas, co-head of asset-backed finance at Apollo Global Management, speaks about this booming segment of private credit with Credit Exchange host Lisa Lee, managing editor at Creditflux and editor-at-large at Debtwire. Leas can see the private credit market exceeding the current growth forecast of $40 trillion, and that will have repercussions. “The financing toolkit has gotten so much broader...

“The idea that default rates will go up over time is not particularly difficult to get to,” says Jake Pollack, head of global credit financing and North America credit trading at JPMorgan, on the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. “The markets have been very sanguine, and it won’t be surprising if we see more defaults in the coming months and even years.” Corporate America is doing well...

“Underneath is a lot of volatility. Companies are struggling. You’re seeing really wide dispersion,” says Greg Peters, co-chief investment officer at PGIM Fixed Income, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee. Companies, both public and private, are defaulting at a higher rate than you would expect given the macro backdrop. Investors have been too quick to dismiss the possibility of...

“It’s a huge differentiator” to have dedicated and experienced personnel to deal with struggling borrowers, says Tim Lyne, CEO of private credit specialist Antares Capital, in the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. Recent entrants, funds raised in the past five years, often do not. On the M&A front, Lyne doesn’t expect to see a great volume of M&A transactions this year, or inde...

“Existing investors are probably too long the dollar. They enjoy a very good ride. Valuations are expensive. It makes sense to take profit,” says Grégoire Pesques, CIO, global fixed income at Europe’s largest asset manager Amundi, in the latest Credit Exchange podcast with Lisa Lee. The US, UK, many Eurozone countries, Japan – all have been spending profusely, causing deficits to be a big issue al...