Macro Horizons

Ian Lyngen and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 12th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Trade tensions are mounting, accelerating the post-FOMC risk off sentiment. China let the yuan depreciate beyond 7 per dollar. US Treasury has formally labelled China a Currency Manipulator. 10yr Treasury yields have fallen by over 30bp this past week. The front-end is pricing two full rate cuts and a decent chance of a third before year-end. Credit spreads are wider and swap spreads are narrower....

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 5th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 29th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

The trade war has already caused significant damage to business confidence, additional trade uncertainties remain, and global growth is decelerating. These factors should directly impact corporate profitability later this year, but are not yet reflected in spreads due to the Fed-fueled yield grab.  Dan Krieter and Dan Belton bring you their outlook for investment credit spreads as the Fed cuts rat...

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 22nd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 15th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 8th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 1st, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 24th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

The outlook has dimmed, labor gains hushed, inflation expectations have found their seats, and the stage is now set for the debut of “Powell’s First Cut”. This summer promises to be an inflection point for monetary policy and we’re offering three monetary policy scenarios, along with their respective impacts on rates, spreads, and FX. It goes without saying there are other (far less likely) outcom...

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 17th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 10th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

This month we present a roundtable discussion on the US-China trade war. As the trade dispute escalates, we analyze the potential impact on US and Canadian growth, interest rates, spreads, foreign exchange, and monetary policy. While not our base case, we also examine the potential implications of China embarking on a large-scale US asset sale program.

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of June 3rd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 27th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 20th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

This month, our roundtable discussion is a live recording from one of our annual client events in Toronto on May 7th, 2019. We focus on our outlook for US Rates, high-quality spreads, and the Fed, including a discussion on major risks to our base case scenario and questions from the audience.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 13th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of May 6th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of April 29th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of April 22nd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of April 15th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of April 8th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

With the Fed on hold and balance sheet rundown ending in September, we examine our top client questions across asset classes and markets. Namely, the next Fed rate move, when to position for a steeper curve, how to handle low spreads and which central bank will be the first to cut rates.