Forward Guidance

Jack Farley hosts Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital, and Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, for a panel on whether the near-term macro situation will be a headwind or tailwind for crypto. Filmed on September 12, 2023, at Blockworks' Permissionless II in Austin, Texas. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Foll...

Jack interviews Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Mark Yusko on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Timecodes: (00:00)...

Jack interviews Jim Bianco of Bianco Research at Blockworks’ Permissionless event in Austin. Filmed on September 12, 2023. Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ _____ Timecodes: (...

Andrew Beer, managing member of DBI, joins Forward Guidance to discuss the need for drastic fee reduction in hedge-fund like return vehicles. Beer and Farley explore in depth the mysteries of trend following (also known as CTAs or managed futures) strategies, which provide investors with positive carrying uncorrelated return streams that can be very beneficial in years such as 2022, when stocks an...

Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share his view on the U.S. business cycle. Basmajian notes that the 2022 decline in economic growth rate turned into a remarkable stabilization of broad coincident indicators of economic activity that began in January 2023 and persisted throughout the spring stresses in the banking system. However, he remains confident that th...

This is Jack’s guest appearance on the Behind The Markets Podcast with Jeremy Schwartz, Chief Investment Officer of WisdomTree, and Jeremy Siegel, renowned finance professor at Wharton and senior economist to WisdomTree. The trio tackle the labor market, the stock market, the interest rate sensitivity of the three segments of the U.S. economy (households, businesses, and the government), as well a...

When quiet legend of technical analysis Milton Berg first appeared on Forward Guidance in January 2023, he predicted a scorching stock bull market. Now that his call has aged very well, he returns to the program urging caution. Although his model portfolio is 100% long based on short-term indicators, he expects that any move higher will be temporary and that the bull market will end soon. Filmed o...

On todays episode, Aahan Menon Founder of Prometheus Research joins the show for a discussion on his current macro outlook looking at the economy, growth, markets & liquidity. With a wave of U.S Treasury issuance on the horizon, Aahan explains why he now sees a perfect opportunity to be short stocks & bonds and he expects further headwinds for assets in this environment. To hear Aahan explain why,...

Today’s interview is a deep-dive into commercial real estate (CRE), an asset class which includes office, multifamily housing (apartments), hotels, data centers, malls, and more. Jack welcomes John Toohig, Head of Whole Loan Trading at Raymond James, Thomas LaSalvia, Head of Commercial Real Estate Economics at Moody's Analytics, and Victor Calanog, Manulife’s Managing Director & Global Head of Res...

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates joins the show to discuss the continuing recessionary pressures he sees building in the economy. Preparing for a recession within the next six months, David walks through prior Fed tightening cycles, the lagged effects of fiscal stimulus that are now dwindling and the incoming credit cr...

In fall 2022 when most economists were anticipating an imminent recession, Vincent Deluard made the bold call that several forms of “stealth stimulus” would prevent the U.S. from entering a recession in 2023. Now Deluard, director of Global Macro at StoneX, returns to Forward Guidance to share why these hidden forms of government stimulus (social security cost of living adjustment, tax-bracket adj...

Follow Mike Singleton https://twitter.com/InvictusMacro Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ ____ Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governanc...

On todays episode, Mark Neuman Founder & CIO of Constrained Capital joins the show for a discussion on environmental, social & corporate governance's (ESG's) role in the financial industry. To hear all about the origins of ESG, accurately measuring returns & some of the issues prevalent underneath the ESG label, you'll have to tune in! -- Follow Mark Neuman on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarkNeuma...

Marshall Stocker, co-Head of Emerging Markets at Morgan Stanley, shares his insight why country selection has a greater effect on excess returns than company selection, and shares his view on investment opportunities and challenges in China, Greece, India, South Africa, and other countries. Filmed at Camp Kotok in August 2023. Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow F...

Today Jack interviews William “Bill” Isaac, who served as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 1981 to 1985. Isaac recounts his handling of large bank failures in the 1970s and 1980s, including the collapse of Continental Illinois, which was the largest FDIC takeover until Washington Mutual in 2008. Isaac argues that at the core of banking issues is fiscal imprudence by t...

Few outside the banking world grasp the true importance of the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs), whose collective loans to U.S. banks outpace the Federal Reserve’s by more than 10 to 1 as of summer 2023. Today Jack speaks to Michael Ericson, President of the Chicago Federal Home Loan Bank, and Dan Siciliano, chair of the Council of FHLBs and independent director of the San Francisco FHLB, about the...

Ivy Zelman, founder and CEO of Zelman & Associates, joins Forward Guidance to share her outlook on the U.S. housing market. Filmed on August 8, 2023. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ To learn more about Zelman & Associates, email ted@zelmanassociates.com Follow Ivy Zelman on Twitter https://twitter.com/Ivy_Zelman Follow Ja...

Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok. We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in! -- Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15%...

Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation. Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative...

David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023. David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market...

Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 20...

Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.” Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter http...

James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money. Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm. ____ Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish Follow Jack Farley on Twitte...

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity. Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap ___ Follow Andy Constan on Twitter htt...

Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year. Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular...