Eventual

Today on the show: World Cup diplomacy gets weird, Trump looks past Canada and Mexico, Michigan Democrats spiral into a brutal Senate primary, Maine picks its Graham Platner replacement,  and Chinese AI sends traders hunting for signal. Alex Keeney and Brian Golden break down the latest prediction market action across politics, AI, trade, Congress, and the 2026 midterms — including USMCA extension...

David Ellison's high-stakes bid to merge Paramount with Warner Bros Discovery is hitting a wall — and it's not the kind of wall Hollywood is used to. California Attorney General Rob Bonta and a coalition of Democratic state AGs are fighting to block the deal, setting up a courtroom showdown with massive implications for the future of media and tech. Alex Keeney from Eventual and Rich Greenfield di...

The Bulwark's Sonny Bunch joins to break down the backlash to Nolan's The Odyssey , whether online outrage predicts box office, and a Best Picture lightning round (Obsession, Project Hail Mary, Michael, The Invite, Fjord). Plus: Alex and Brian trade Congress's "nothing ever happens" bet, an inflation surprise scrambling the Fed outlook, fading Mbappé for the golden ball, and Alex's Susan Collins s...

Domer & Alex Keeney breaks down the latest in politics, prediction markets, and election odds — from Graham Platner dropping out in Maine to Nigel Farage facing Count Binface in the world’s dumbest by-election.   Then David DesRosiers, publisher of RealClearPolitics and host of Get Real, joins Eventual to talk about polling, Polymarket, prediction markets, political science, the future of election...

Alex Keeney and Brian take on a packed show: the USMNT’s latest collapse, Graham Platner’s implosion in Maine, what it means for Democrats’ Senate hopes in 2026, and the prediction markets moving around Senate control. Then, Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative, joins Eventual for a wide-ranging conversation on Trump’s Iran options, the odds of a nuclear deal, uranium enrich...

Alex Keeney is joined by Doug Campbell for a World Cup and politics-heavy episode of Eventual. First, Alex and Doug break down the World Cup through a prediction-market lens, focusing on home-field advantage, hostile road environments, altitude, and how those factors can shape knockout-stage expectations. Doug explains why home teams and home-continent teams may be undervalued, why older underdog-...

Colorado usually is not the center of national political attention anymore, but primary day has put the state back in the spotlight. Seth Masket joins Eventual to unpack two high-attention Democratic contests: Diana DeGette's primary challenge in Denver and Michael Bennet's run for governor against Phil Weiser. The conversation looks at why prediction markets are skeptical of the incumbents, why p...

The progressive insurgency inside the Democratic Party isn't slowing down — and prediction markets are starting to price it in. This week on Eventual, world leading trader Domer breaks down how to trade the DSA wave reshaping deep-blue districts, eight years after AOC's first upset rewrote the rules. We dig into AOC's presidential market — is she a real contender or a long-shot story? Then we talk...

ice President JD Vance is everywhere selling an Iran framework. But Rachael Bade — who writes The Inner Circle on Substack and co-hosts The Huddle — says the hardest sticking points haven't been touched yet. Can Vance and Iran strike a deal that Trump and Congress will approve? Also this week: political forecaster Logan Phillips thinks prediction markets have the New York AI primary completely bac...

Donald Trump brought the World Cup to America. Now he's trying to bring home an Iran nuclear deal — and prediction markets think the mullahs are winning. PhD economist and Polymarket veteran Doug Campbell joins to find the alpha in the wreckage. The Ringer's Anthony Dabbundo talks the World Cup — the teams, the bets, and whether Trump is about to make the biggest soccer tournament in history about...

Introducing Eventual, a show built by and for prediction market traders. This channel will be focused on helping existing traders up their game, and helping curious professionals extract valuable signal from the markets.  In Episode 1, host Alex Keeney introduces the founding crew: the traders, oddsmakers, and analysts at the center of Eventual's coverage. What they're watching, what they're tradi...