Cheap Talk

The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis; lessons from the crisis; the dangers of reasoning from analogy; why Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine; how NATO would respond if they did; gambling for resurrection; the US role in facilitating peace; and Marcus agrees that countries shouldn’t use nuclear weapons Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode...

Allegations of cheating in chess; how to go about cheating in chess (but you shouldn’t do it); a questionable analogy to face-to-face diplomacy; how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine affects international chess; looking into Putin’s soul; and Marcus shares his chess journey Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

Escalation management; sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline; signals of Russian resolve; what the end of the war in Ukraine looks like; backing Putin into a corner; US strategic ambiguity toward Russia and China; Iran protests; and Marcus confesses he is not a military strategy guy Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

The long-awaited season premiere of Cheap Talk: The origins of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; did Putin make a mistake; would Ukrainian nuclear weapons have prevented a war; who is deterring whom; and Marcus comes up with a final exam question Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at http://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk

A Cheap Talk emergency podcast: Russia invades Ukraine and Marcus swears off predictions for a while

The Cheap Talk season 2 finale: Authenticating the sender of international signals; the problem of communicating through intermediaries; technology and leader communication; IR predictions for the year ahead; and Marcus explains how fax machines work

Artificial intelligence; how algorithms can aid policy or intelligence analysis; building trust in the output of machine learning models; creating models without access to secret data; autonomous weapon systems; diplomacy in the metaverse; and Marcus offers tips for cooking a Thanksgiving turkey Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk Further r...

The COP26 international meeting on climate change; inviting civil society and oil companies into the room; how open should the conference be; the mechanisms by which an international conference can affect climate change; prospects for the success of international efforts; the role of nuclear energy in mitigating climate change; a listener asks about the chances of a US-Iran agreement on a nuclear...

Great power conflict; the US role in abetting China’s rise; realism as both prescription and description; prospects for the future US-China relationship; the drivers of China’s nuclear expansion; a listener asks about US diplomatic engagement in the China-Taiwan dispute; and Marcus (again) thinks the answer is more diplomacy. Further reading: John J. Mearsheimer. 2021. “The Inevitable Rivalry: Ame...

The US commitment to defend Taiwan; signaling resolve while maintaining strategic ambiguity; things are dangerous out there; the effect of US public opinion on US foreign policy; a hint for those writing policy memos for class; the external validity of survey experiments in political science; COVID vaccine diplomacy and international influence; and Marcus claims he’s more of a craps player than a...

The militarization of US foreign policy; getting diplomats and intelligence officers out of the embassy; the domestic politics of foreign policy funding; showing results from diplomacy; soft power approaches; and Marcus thinks the answer is more diplomacy Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at https://www.speakpipe.com/cheaptalk.

The gap between academia and policy; where policy beliefs come from; how we would know if there were a gap; policymakers are busy people; less methodological sophistication is not the answer; science communication is important; and Marcus mentions offhandedly that he frequently gets invited to the State Department Ask a question or leave a comment for a future podcast episode at www.speakpipe.com/...

Pure theorizing versus applied research; positivist and non-positivist approaches in international relations; international relations is what the field says it is; the relevance of the international relations paradigms; a defense of methodological pluralism; and Marcus reads a quote from Kenneth Waltz several times Further reading: David A. Lake. 2011. “Why ‘isms’ Are Evil: Theory, Epistemology, a...

Judging the US-Russia summit; the risks of failed summit diplomacy; AUKUS; countering China versus nonproliferation policy; nuclear submarines; the role of precedent and norms in international relations; and Marcus makes a note in his Google calendar

Cheap Talk makes its triumphant return for season 2: The US withdrawal from Afghanistan; reputations for resolve in international relations; foreign policy as a partisan issue; the legacy of 9/11; and Marcus didn’t know what to do, so he went to class

Taking diplomacy seriously; the Cold War ends with a fizzle; summit diplomacy; Jimmy Carter saves the day; and Marcus recommends an excellent article in International Studies Quarterly. Further reading: Marcus Holmes and Keren Yarhi-Milo. 2017. “The Psychological Logic of Peace Summits: How Empathy Shapes Outcomes of Diplomatic Negotiations.” International Studies Quarterly 61(1): 107–122. Jeffrey...

Continuity of government; interpreting foreign policy signals in a crisis; decision-making in the loss domain; benefiting from chaos; and Marcus worries about the lingering effects of COVID

Whether international security institutions matter; power politics; using institutions to avoid taking action; constraining versus screening; and Marcus feels bad for institutions sometimes

The puzzle of nuclear non-use; strategic calculations versus the nuclear taboo; and Marcus uses the word deontological in a sentence

Rationalism versus political psychology; whether the bargaining model is useful; the role of individuals in IR; and Marcus has a couple more things to say

The COVID-19 pandemic, institutions, China, signposts to a post-pandemic future, and Marcus predicts a new world order