Wild Truth Chase

The Information

Publisher's link for The Theory That Would Not Die by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

Nick introduces a new episode type that may end up dominating the feed, at least for the near future.

We wrap the season with a recap of what we've covered and my thoughts about how these ideas are related to a very general way of analyzing data.

We discuss connections between betting and information theory and how this framework for thinking about how being able to accurately estimate probabilities might apply more generally to decisions that we make.

We discuss basic concepts of information theory as well as some examples of communication processes and compression techniques. The sources for this episode are the following books: https://www.amazon.com/Information-Theory-Tutorial-Introduction-2nd-dp-1739672704/dp/1739672704/ref=dp_ob_title_bk https://www.amazon.com/Introduction-Information-Theory-Symbols-Mathematics/dp/0486240614/ref=tmm_pap_sw...

I discuss the work of Judea Pearl and how it fits in with the other topics we've discussed this season. We get to vilify, yet again, our old friend Ronald Fisher.

We compare machine learning to traditional programming and talk about some of the core challenges associated with doing machine learning.

We talk more about data generating processes and how commonalities between the mathematical structure of diverse physical phenomena suggest the presence of a "second dimension" in how we might think about organizing physical phenomena. Can probabilistic programming come to the rescue and provide a quite general framework for analyzing data? Let's see what you think after listening to...

A discussion of the meaning of probability and how it fits in with our other topics this season.

We meet our friends E.T. Jaynes, Aubrey Clayton, Jacob Bernoulli, and Ronald Fisher.

Where we spend way too much (and too little) time talking about too many different things.

What are theories and models and what are some examples? Why should I care?

It’s time to leave Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in the rearview mirror. Today we’re wrapping up the season with a final look at SVB’s stock price, earnings and cash flow versus its peers. Reinforcing our earlier analyses, SVB again appears to be an outlier, with its recent strategy driving stock price growth but then coming unstuck as the macro-economic climate changed. Looking back at the season, Ni...

We’re five episodes deep in our analysis of financial data around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Over the last week, we’ve been analysing sentiment and cashflow data for banks to help us understand industry trends and the ways in which SVB was unique. The sentiment data, downloaded from the AlphaVantage API, shows some surprising industry trends against a backdrop of economic downturns...

What secrets lie in balance sheets? Today, we’re trying to find out. This season on the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) we’ve bounced between a few different datasets, including macroeconomic data and headline assets and liabilities. This week’s episode takes a more detailed look at the bank’s balance sheet data over the last ten years and tries to place that in the context of the wider banki...

I’ve got competition. Nick wants to replace me with an AI. He says they are faster and better at writing episode descriptions. Well listen here ChatGPT, Bing Chat, Bard and whoever else, challenge accepted! It’s a two faced episode, starting with large language models (LLMs) and returning to the nominal topic of Silicon Valley Bank. Nick is unsettled. He’s chest deep in an ocean of AI assistants a...

Continuing our season on Silicon Valley Bank, this week Neeraj and Nick are taking a closer look at the history of the second biggest bank to ever fail in the USA, from its founding by two Bank of America managers through to its untimely demise. The events at SVB remain a hot topic, with medium sized banks encouraging the government to shore up depositor confidence and popular commentators such as...

One week ago, Silicon Valley Bank was the place for “proactive guidance for the long run”. It was recognised by Forbes as the 20th best bank in the US and one of Forbes’s Financial All-Stars. Fast forward a week and everything has changed. Closed by California State and its funds now in the hands of the Federal Government, the Silicon Valley Bank story appears to have concluded. How did one of the...

Our audience is dwindling but this goose is not cooked just yet. In today’s short update, Nick and Neeraj describe the changes they’re making to play to their strengths and improve the podcast. Hint, there’s going to be more data and some code too! Thumbnail DALL·E prompt: "a goose wearing headphones charting a new course on an old sail ship, cartoon style" Please join us on our website and Discor...

Check out Uncle Ned’s new podcast, No Stakes! https://open.spotify.com/show/4HojVPJXlXxcfpVSy1gFIP Let’s cut to the chase, our season on scams has not been a barnstormer, so our hosts are calling in reinforcements. Uncle Ned is making a return to the Wild Truth Chase podcast to help us close out the season and hopefully get our numbers back on track. In this last scamisode, our hosts summarise the...

Ever had a tradesman turn up out of the blue just in your moment of need? That sounds convenient! Suspiciously convenient. Today Neeraj and Nick are learning from the experiences of others by going through a few scamming case studies. We learn about crooked “mechanics”, shifty psychics, international clairvoyants, mendacious “blackmailers” and a couple of occasions where the victims got away. Our...

For any scam to work there needs to be a perpetrator and a victim. This week, Nick and Neeraj discuss the psychology of these two roles in a scam as well as the psychological techniques scammers use to part victims from their money. On the face of it, many scams are marketed just like legitimate products and often with an air of authority. But dig a bit deeper and their oversized promises and easy...

There’s few nice things in the Wild Truth Chase garage. A couple of Ferraris, a jetski and a yacht. But ignore all those things and notice our latest episode on the shelf. This latest episode is worth more than all of those things. It’s full of knowledge and insight delivered by two extraordinarily successful people. In this episode, Neeraj and Nick talk about fake gurus duping their followers wit...

History is full of innovative and creative scammers who have adopted new technology to make a quick buck. To learn more about how technology has enabled scams and frauds, Nick and Neeraj take a gentle stroll through a shared history of technology and scamming. Along the way, unexpected admissions are made by our hosts about their past flirtations with scamming. Increasingly, Nick is being sucked i...