VirtualBacon

Bitcoin just crossed 80K for the first time since January, with on-chain whale wallets showing the largest accumulation since 2013. I'm watching 96K as the bull market confirmation level. Prediction market ETFs got delayed by the SEC, but Hyperliquid, Kalshi, and Polymarket pulled $21B in March volume. The AI pre-IPO season for SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic is now live on Hyperliquid for retail. C...

Sell in May? Not everything. Three trades I'm watching this month: AI chips lead the stock market into Nvidia May 20 earnings, gold finally catches up on the inflation hedge while Bitcoin has run out of room versus gold, and altcoins set up to bottom if Bitcoin flushes back to 60K. May 15 marks Kevin Warsh's first day as Fed chair. Chapters: (00:00) Welcome and three trade ideas for May 2026 (01:4...

Powell held his final FOMC press conference today and drew a hard line on Fed independence. Rates stayed at 3.5 to 3.75, oil at $111 is keeping inflation sticky, and Powell hinted at a 3.2% Core PCE Thursday. He is staying on as governor until the DOJ probe is fully dropped, and warned Warsh that any sign of doing Trump's bidding will get called out publicly. Bitcoin pulled back to 74K, S&P un...

Bitcoin tested 79K at the Bitcoin 2026 conference, then dumped to 76K. The most loaded macro week of 2026 is here: FOMC Wednesday with Powell's final meeting, Core PCE Thursday, Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation vote, and 4 of the Mag 7 reporting earnings. The CLARITY Act deadline just slipped to mid-May. Chapters: (00:00) Welcome and Bitcoin macro week ahead (00:33) Bitcoin price action: 79K test...

Four major catalysts hit the markets in the next five trading days. Saturday brings the biggest Deribit Bitcoin options expiry of 2026 at $9.8B. Wednesday is Powell's final FOMC as Fed chair. Thursday is the March core PCE print, the first of two guaranteed-hot inflation readings from $100 oil. Tuesday through Thursday, four of the Mag 7 (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple) all report earnings back to...

Oil tagged $100 this week and markets kept rallying. Bitcoin touched 79K, S&P and Nasdaq held up, and gold is at all-time highs. I cover why this is the TACO trade in full effect, the four-day Iran escalation timeline, why the only charts that matter now are oil prices and the next two core PCE prints, Bitcoin's bottom probability, Fed drama with Powell potentially staying two more FOMCs while...

A $292 million bridge exploit on Kelp DAO this weekend created fake staked Ethereum that the hacker deposited into Aave, Compound, and Morpho to borrow real assets. $8 billion pulled out of DeFi lending platforms within 48 hours. Aave itself is not broken and the smart contracts are fine, but the bad debt from the fake tokens is real. I explain exactly what happened, which platforms are affected,...

Bitcoin pumped to 78K today after Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire was confirmed. Oil crashed 11% on the news, and the S&P and Nasdaq both hit new all-time highs. But I am not chasing this move. At 78K, Bitcoin is 23% below the bull market confirmation level at the 50-week SMA near 97K, and 22% more expensive than the last three bear market bottoms. The 200-day SMA, the 50-week...

I lay out the two exact signals you need to watch before buying altcoins again. Signal one: Bitcoin must confirm a bull run above the 50-week SMA at 94K, with the 20-week SMA crossing above it. Until that happens, the only altcoin play is trading one to three months at a time during confirmed Bitcoin uptrends. Signal two: the Fed must confirm a long-term QE program, and that cannot happen until at...

Bitcoin is at 75K, more than $3,000 above the short-term breakout level at 72K. But is this enough to confirm a bull market, or is it just a bear rally? The bull market confirmation level is 94K on the weekly 50-SMA, and we are still $20K below that. I cover the full Iran war timeline and why the TACO trade keeps repeating, why oil is still the single most important macro variable, the VIX droppin...

I analyzed every top 100 altcoin using their ALT/BTC ratio across two full market cycles to find which coins are viable oscillators for the next bull run. Only 15 out of 95 altcoins made the cut. S-tier coins that outperformed Bitcoin: FET, Tron, Render, and Zcash. A-tier strong oscillators: Floki, XRP, Monero, Solana, Ethereum, and BNB. B-tier decent oscillators: MakerDAO, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash,...

The US and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire last night, but within hours both sides accused each other of violations. Oil remains near $95, meaning the next two core PCE prints will run hot and the Fed is stuck between holding and hiking rates. I cover the ceasefire timeline, oil price impact, S&P 500 and Nasdaq technicals, why gold is at its strongest level ever, why semiconductors are the o...

The SEC just submitted a new framework called Reg Crypto to the White House for review. It creates a startup exemption for fundraises under $5M with no SEC filing, a $75M annual exemption with minimal paperwork, and a graduation path for tokens to move from security status to digital commodity. Combined with the 16 coins already classified as non-securities, the SEC has effectively stopped pursuin...

Trump just gave Iran its 4th deadline extension, now set for 8 PM Eastern tomorrow (Tuesday). I break down all 4 deadlines, the 3 most likely scenarios after the cutoff, and why Polymarket gives only a 3% chance of ceasefire by tomorrow. I also cover the oil market impact while the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, where Bitcoin and the S&P stand in the current bear market, and what the CLARITY Act t...

Markets are closed for Good Friday, so today we stepped back from the war and inflation cycle to break down the AI investing landscape. Out of the Mag 7, the four hyperscaler data center companies (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are the most exposed to inflation from the Iran conflict because their core business is physical infrastructure build-out. Chips companies like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Mic...

Trump addressed the nation last night on Iran and gave completely mixed signals. He vowed to hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks and bring them back to the Stone Ages, but also compared the conflict to World War I and Iraq, calling it nothing and almost over. He said the US doesn't need oil from the Strait of Hormuz and won't help reopen it, but then said stock prices will rap...

Q1 is officially over, and it was the worst quarter for the stock market since 2022 and for Bitcoin since 2018. Oil surged 80% on the Iran conflict, driving the entire drawdown in just 32 trading days. Tonight Trump addresses the nation at 9 PM Eastern, and this is decision week for the S&P 500: if it doesn't recover above the 200-day SMA within the next few days, history says we get another 1...

On March 17th, the SEC and CFTC dropped a 68-page joint interpretive release classifying every type of digital asset for the first time. After a decade of regulation by enforcement, we now have an actual framework. Sixteen tokens are officially digital commodities (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, XRP, Chainlink, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and eight others), with clear criteria tied to consensus mech...

US equities just had their fifth consecutive losing week, with the Nasdaq down 11% YTD and the Dow entering correction territory. A second war front is opening as Yemen's Houthis launched missiles at Israel, threatening to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait alongside the already-constrained Strait of Hormuz. Oil is back above $100, the S&P is below the 200-day SMA, and if it stays there, history p...

Bitcoin just broke below its daily higher low structure at $65.8K, ending the two-week uptrend we tracked on every livestream. Oil is back above $100 per barrel as the Iran conflict escalates with Pentagon troops preparing for a ground operation on Kharg Island, dragging the S&P 500 below the 200-day SMA. If the S&P doesn't reclaim that level within the next two weeks, historical data show...

The CLARITY Act is the most important piece of crypto legislation in US history -- and it has just 6 weeks to clear the Senate before the window closes. Today's four-hour tokenization hearing brought Wall Street and DeFi to the same table, and all five witnesses agreed: tokenization is the next phase of capital markets. The stablecoin yield fight is resolved, the Nasdaq got SEC approval to trade t...

Iran fires back at Tel Aviv after Trump's 5-day pause -- no ceasefire in sight. Bitcoin retraced to $69K while the S&P 500 is rejecting at the 200-day SMA, risking another 10-15% drawdown. Tomorrow's CLARITY Act hearing could reshape stablecoin yield rules, already hitting Circle and Coinbase stocks. Private credit funds like Apollo and BlackRock are gating withdrawals in what could become a t...

Trump just delayed the Iran strike for five days, saying negotiations are going well, but Iran denies any talks. Bitcoin bounced to $71K on the headline, but oil is still above $100 and gas prices have already spiked 25% in two weeks. In this stream, we break down why inflation will stay elevated for months regardless of what happens next with Iran, how Bitcoin is trading relative to gold during w...

Bitcoin just sold off to $70K after the Fed held rates and dropped the most hawkish signal in over a year: the possibility of a rate hike at the April meeting. This is the 8th sell-the-news FOMC pattern out of 9, and we are now inside the 48-hour recovery window where the trough historically forms. Meanwhile, oil spiked to $119 after Iran struck Qatar's largest gas facility, the SEC and CFTC class...

Bitcoin miners have been capitulating for three months — one of the longest periods in history. The Hash Ribbons indicator just flipped, and historically, every time this happens, long-term holders win. BTC is sitting at $74K while mining cost is $77-87K. Miners are underwater, weak hands are getting flushed, and selling pressure is drying up. The last four times this signal played out, Bitcoin ra...