Views from Down Underer

Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism.  Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period?  A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard...

Lord Cameron calls UK to out-cooperate, out-compete, and out-innovate in foreign affairs.  What does it mean in action?  Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin.  Is this still a partnership of equals? India has been accused by Australia for operating a spy network.  India acting like a great power?  A small town mayor in the Philippines is suspected of being a Chinese spy...but that is not all...th...

A May 2, 2024 article published in Foreign Affairs examines the problem of misunderstanding of the Asian states and how they position themselves in the context of great power competition.  This fundamental misread of the Asian states is showing in the 'one size fits all' foreign policies of major powers towards Asia...particularly Southeast Asia.  In an April 2024 publication of the prestigious ac...

Norway's deputy foreign minister rebuts accusations about double-standard in foreign policy of Western countries and argues that at least in the case of Norway they have tried to be consistent in their foreign policy. Is it easier for smaller states to be consistent?  Is it more difficult for major powers engaging in multiple issue dimensions to be consistent so that they appear double-standard? ...

Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate.  Will this expand the Middle East conflict?  How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region?  What does it mean for international order?  What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order?  Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump.  In a recent trip to China, Treasu...

ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website.  We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll.  We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.

ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US.  Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low.  China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by.  India wanted to create a new democracy index as its ranki...

NZ Foreign Affairs minister Winston Peters recently visited India and Southeast Asia.  Is this NZ's version of de-risking and diversification of its relationships in the region?  China's Foreign Affairs minister Wang Yi visited Wellington very recently.  What is the significance of this meeting?  

Prabowo Subianto has claimed a huge win in the Indonesian presidential elections but faced a fragmented legislature.  What are the challenges that a Prabowo presidency faces? What are the implications to ASEAN relations and Indonesia's relations with China and the US?  News of Singapore's subsidy for exclusive shows of Taylor Swift's Era Tour in Southeast Asia has raised protest from some ASEAN po...

ANZMIN 2+2 is the first ministerial level consultations between NZ and Australian foreign affairs and defense ministers.  The joint statement of the ANZMIN released by the NZ government marks a clear shift in NZ's explicit posturing regards to AUKUS, QUAD, and Indo-Pacific issues.  Indonesia's presidential election will be held on 14 February, the use of cartoon as a campaign tool seem to be creat...

Taiwan's presidential and legislative elections was successfully held on 13 January 2024.  With the world's attention focus on this election, the election returned a third presidential term for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) but it failed to retain its legislative majority.  Taiwan will have a divided government for the next four years.  What are the implications to geopolitics, cro...

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis threaten to add more stress to the vulnerable global supply chains and unravel the anti-inflationary economic policies of countries around the world.  A joint statement released by the White House and signed by many leading nations including New Zealand condemn the attacks on Red Sea shipping.  These attacks are mired in the bigger geopolitical eve...

US President Biden and Chinese President Xi had a first ever in person meeting in three years of Biden's administration.  Sino-US relations have deteriorated since 2017 with Trump's America First and MAGA foreign policies and Biden administration has doubled down on what the Trump administration's China policy. With the weak economic performance of the Chinese economy of late and the many problems...

The Economist published two articles that caught our attention one titled "What will Indonesia look like after Jokowi leaves?" and a second one titled "Narendra Modi has shifted India from the Palestinians to Israel."  These two countries have great potential to take up more leadership position in the Indo-Pacific but something seems to be holding them back.  What role does domestic politics play...

In the October 19th issue of Foreign Affairs, an essay about the so-called New Economic Security State explains how the Biden Administration and its national security chief conceptualizes the relationship between market, economy, and national security.  This 'new' thinking is supposed to recalibrate the excesses of globalization and faith on the market but then avoid the Cold War hard core emphasi...

The results of the New Zealand General Election of 14 October 2023 are in.  The incumbent Labour government was resoundingly defeated by the centre-right National Party.  National will be able to form a two-party coalition with another party to its right, ACT.  What does this mean for NZ's foreign policy, defense, and strategic policies?  The Middle East is grabbing headline news again with the Is...

China's defense minister Li Shangfu has not been seen and there are speculation that he has been sacked and being investigated for corruption.  This is the second disappearance and sacking of senior ministers handpicked by President Xi.  So is President Xi really the strongman that we think he is?  Ex-foreign minister of Singapore waded into the China-Taiwan issue and may have step on prickly toes...

ASEAN just concluded its Jakarta summit while Indian PM Modi is hosting the G20 summit in New Delhi.  With the geopolitical and geoeconomics tension in the region, is ASEAN still a relevant player?  While India is relishing in the limelight hosting the G20 summit one talking point is the absence of China's Xi Jinping.  Interestingly, the proliferation of bilateral meetings by middle powers, e.g.,...

US President Joe Biden hosted ROK President Yoon and Japan PM Kishida in Camp David for a trilateral summit meeting that seeks to deepen its security partnership to strengthen trilateral deterrence and contribute to long-term balance of power in East Asia and in the Indo-Pacific.  BRICS summit in South Africa added six new members to this economic forum of the non-G7 countries.  Are these evidence...

The Philippines accused China's coast guard of firing water cannon at a Philippine ship supplying one of its 'outpost' in the South China Sea.  What is the background of this tension?  Is this a tit-for-tat action by China against the current Marcos' administration move away from the China-friendly foreign policy of the Duterte administration?  Former US President Trump was indicted on his role in...

Up north, Qin Gang has gone from a missing Foreign Affairs Minister of the PRC to a missing ex-Foreign Affairs Minister.  Down south, leaders and top diplomats of the West are here on a charm offensive all singing that famous Backstreet Boys line: "Don't care who you are, where you're from...as long as you love me."

New Zealand PM Chris Hipkins delivered three foreign policy speeches in a short span of 10 days -- from July 7 to July 17.  Like any small state, NZ is caught in between the intensification of the US-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region.  As a Five Eyes member and IP4 partner of NATO, NZ is trying to balance its relations between the two great powers of US and the PRC.  Did the P...

This episode is on NATO's recent summit discussing Ukraine membership and its likely role in the Asia-Pacific.  How do we make sense of what happened in Vilnius and the implications to the Asia-Pacific region?  With talk of diversification of supply chain and de-risking, India has become the 'favourite' to take the title of factory of the world from China.  Yet, Foxconn pulling out of a $19 billio...