Unhedged

There is fast money and there is real money. Fast money means day traders and hedge funds, who jump in and out on the day's news. But the real money — that of governments and insurance and pension funds — moves much more slowly, and with greater effect. Today on the show, Katie Martin speaks with Ian Smith on what may be a slow turn of allocation out of the US and into Europe. Also they go short c...

The GDP contracted this past quarter – a turnaround from two years of surprisingly steady growth. Baked into that negative number are imports, as sellers rush to bring in goods ahead of tariffs. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter dissect the GDP and what it tells us about the rapidly changing economy. Also they go long soyabeans and long blackouts.  For a free 30-day trial to t...

Air and sea freight bookings for international cargo are plunging. As the reality of empty shelves starts to hit consumers, will Donald Trump blink? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out how long the US president can hold out, and wonder, if he does blink, how long it might take to get trade going again. Also they go long Greggs bakery chain and short the AAII Investo...

The current administration rode in on a wave of support from America’s traders, lenders and money managers. But that might be changing. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks to the FT’s US finance editor, James Fontanella-Khan, about what the titans of Wall Street really think about President Donald Trump. Also they go long AC Milan and short the market.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhed...

With the continuing decline in the price of US Treasuries, Katie, Rob and Aiden take up the debate about the future of America’s status as a truly exceptional safe haven. Today on the show, the trio discuss the damage President Donald Trump has already done and ask how long it will last. Afterwards, they take long and short bets on 10-year Treasuries, the S&P 500 and the euro/dollar trade.&nbs...

Nvidia shares, along with many others in the tech sector, plunged on Wednesday on news that the Trump administration will be blocking sales of certain technology to China. Particularly hard hit was the outlook for Nvidia’s H20 chip. The company expected the president’s decision to cost it $5.5bn in sales. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter are joined by Lex editor John Foley to discu...

The White House has announced dizzyingly high — and hard-to-follow — tariffs on goods from China. And Beijing has responded. But the real trade war may be between the US president and the American consumer. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter dig into the tariffs battle and discuss China’s options. Also, Aiden doubles down on donkey metaphors and Katie goes short performative space ex...

Trump folded on Wednesday, reducing his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs across the board, with the notable exception of massive taxes on goods from China. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin unpack the market gyrations that followed, and wonder if lasting damage has been done to America’s borrowing costs. Also, they go long global trade and long battered European stocks. Join Unhedged...

As the markets try to absorb and value the announced US tariffs, China has responded with its own levies. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong sum up the old bad news, add it to the new bad news, and divide it by the good news. The result isn’t pretty. Also they go long patience and short buying the dip.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www....

On April 2, in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Donald Trump announced taxes on almost every kind of imported finished goods. Markets plunged as traders fled equities, and even the dollar weakened. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter go over the tariffs and discuss how they will make it harder for American companies to make money. Also they go long TIPS, and short the fo...

  Markets, investors and companies are all feeling a little bit jumpy about the state of the economy. Surveys of managers, consumers and investors are all grim. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter take a look at those soft numbers and compare them to hard numbers such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey and try to figure out what’s really going on. Also they go short Indone...

CoreWeave’s IPO is one of the odder tech plays to come along in a few years. It buys chips from Nvidia, and rents them out, mainly to Microsoft, but also to Nvidia. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong gets into the cloud computing company's business with Lex editor John Foley and the FT’s corporate finance editor Rob Smith. Also they go long Ferraris and short car tariffs.  For a free 30-day tri...

President Donald Trump has been clear he wants lower interest rates. Cheaper money would goose the market and give the government room to spend. But interest rates haven’t exactly been co-operating. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss plans to move the needle on long-term bonds, from the stalled “Mar-a-Lago Accord” to Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s embrace o...

On Wednesday Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell announced that US interest rates would remain unchanged. But the monetary policy committee is clearly worried that tariffs might slow growth and increase inflation. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why markets weren't worried by what they heard from the Fed. Also they go long Twitter (X… whatever) and sh...

As the US retreats from global commitments, Europe is re-arming. That will change the maths for companies and debt loads, in countries as different as Poland, Germany, Spain and Portugal. Today on the second part of Unhedged’s visit to the IE Business School in Madrid, hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with the FT’s Spain and Portugal correspondent Barney Jopson about the increase in milit...

As Donald Trump continues to upend the US economy with a bizarre series of tariff announcements and reversals, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong head to Spain. Today on the show, they host a live forum at the IE Business School in Madrid, covering an administration zig-zagging like a squirrel at rush hour and a market cowering in fear. Also, they take some questions from the audience.  For a fre...

Investors have long been wary of China, piling into US markets, no matter what the climate. But is that changing? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to Ruchir Sharma, a columnist for the FT and investor at Rockefeller Capital Management, about the case for China now. Also they go long BYD, and long Vietnam.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https:/...

The president proposes and the markets dispose … of recent gains. Tariffs, deportations, budget cuts, political isolation and other “exciting” new plans seem to be unsettling investors, who are leaving US equities and heading for the safety of bonds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and head of the Lex column John Foley look at some of the falling stocks and try to figure out how much risk investo...

President Donald Trump has loudly proclaimed his desire for lower interest rates. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, responding to persistent inflation, has kept rates higher. And keeps mentioning that he can’t be fired. But is this true? Today on the show, the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles joins Katie Martin to discuss an upcoming legal case that might increase the president’s abi...

President Donald Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine has been a great success … for European defence companies. Meanwhile, traders are selling American defence contractors, and the US market is sluggish. Now the president is threatening huge tariffs on Europe. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter struggle to understand what the Trump administration actually wants and how far the American e...

Have the vibes shifted? Slowing growth and stubborn inflation seem to be putting a chill on a once exuberant market. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter ask if this all adds up to “stagflation”, one of the scariest words in the economic lexicon. Also they go short US defence stocks.  For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You...

The markets are booming but there are fewer and fewer new entrants. And they don’t seem to be exciting to investors. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter talk with Jenn Hughes about her latest newsletter on the weak IPO market. Also they go long the 10-year treasury and short the Treasury secretary’s plans to “monetize” the federal balance sheet.  For a free 30-day trial to the Un...

Donald Trump and his Treasury secretary have signaled their support for a sovereign wealth fund. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris also discussed it. But is it a good idea? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter make the case for and against a radical new plan for American capital. Also, they go long the reappearance of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma, and long Diet Coke.  For a free 30-day t...

Coverage of President Donald Trump’s tariffs tends to focus on their effect on American consumers. That’s important, but it’s only half the story, or less. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin welcome Alan Beattie to discuss how the rest of the world is responding to the Trump tariffs, and what leverage they might have. Also, they go long eggs, and the neutral interest rate, and short...

Gold is traditionally a hedge against instability. And it’s reaching record highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the demand for gold and try to figure out if the market is trying to tell us something. They also short the penny and go long tech bro drama. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer . You can email Robert Arm...