Unexpected Points

Kevin goes through the Week 1 slate with all the advanced stats and proprietary numbers you need to know. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the relevant numbers for the first game of the season, why to love the Bills start, but also not go overboard with enthusiasm. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks through his Bayesian QB rankings, who is undervalued and how it differs from other rankings out there. Plus, his numbers-based best bets for Week 1 and a breakdown of the Russell Wilson extension This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down some of the more notable roster cuts, trades among all 32 teams, and Jimmy Garoppolo staying in San Francisco for atleast another season as the 9ers' backup.  This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through every game from the final preseason week, plus discusses the biggest stories around the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews are the relevant stats from the second week of the NFL preseason. 00:00 Intro 01:25 Life in the Silicon Valley 03:27 Preseason Week 2 Review Setup 04:15 Does the preseason matter 08:18 Young quarterback performances: Pickett, Willis, Skylar Thompson, etc 20:28 Why Pickett should start Week 1 23:45 Running back review 30:22 Wide receiver review 39:25 Tight end review This is a public...

Kevin talks with professional bettor and BetStamp co-founder Rob Pizzola about his business endeavors and takes on teams that are under- and overvalued in 2022. 0:00 Intro 02:49 What is a professional sports bettor? Why have a public presence 14:18 What is betstamp? 33:25 Does a positive record mean someone is a good bettor? 40:38 2022 Betting Preview 47:10 High on the Eagles 54:15 Low on the Bear...

Kevin discusses the implications of the Watson settlement. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through what matter from Week 1 of the preseason, especially in terms of depth charts and young QB play. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin and Josh give their boldest, realistic predictions for the 2022 NFL season. Plus, a few of Hard Knock Ep 1 and the Dan Campbell experience. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the lookahead betting lines to quantitatively rank NFL teams and find value where the market currently doesn't see it. Plus, talk about Kareem Hunt's contract and what it says about the player empowerment era in the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin details why the Dolphins fine was significant and what to pay attention in training camp this week and beyond. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discusses the why of the Watson decision whether it will be appealed and what it means for the Browns' season. Plus, separating the signal and noise in training camp news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Josh Hermsmeyer of 538 joins Kevin to opine on the coaches/executive quarterback rankings released in a recent article and go pick-by-pick giving their own rankings and rationales, plus what a strict analytical model predicts for the 2022 season. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the details of the Kyler Murray contract and how good he's been so far in his career and what to expect going forward. Plus, a look at the best PFF research that came out this offseason. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin counts down the final five greatest statistical QBs of all time.   00:00 Episode Intro/Preview 02:00 #10-#6 Recap 09:00 #5: Drew Brees 18:55 #4: Dan Marino 27:48 #3 Otto Graham 36:57 #2 Peyton Manning 57:51 #1 Tom Brady   PFF LINKS: Underdog Fantasy: Double your first deposit up to $100 when you sign up with the promo code PFF and get a FREE PFF subscription: https://bit.ly/PlayBestBall MANS...

Kevin continues to count down the best statistical QBs in NFL history. Plus, some analysis of the salary tag. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes further into the controversy around Lamar Jackson not making the top-10 quarterbacks in a recent NFL poll. Plus, he continues to count down the greatest statistical quarterbacks of all time, this episode going through 20-11. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin explains why the Baker trade is good and bad for the Panthers, what ESPN QB rankings say about recency bias, and continues to count down the greatest statistical QBs of all time. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin continues to count down the statistical GOAT quarterbacks according to passing and rushing value added through their careers.   This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the latest tape vs analytics war on social media, which he helped start by posting an interview with Titans GM Jon Robinson where he sounded skeptical of analytics value. Plus, answering listener questions. Episode Timestamps: 00:00 Pre-roll, Intro music 01:07 Details on the pod, QB GOAT Preview 02:37 Jon Robinson's misguided view on analytics 12:30 Kwesi Adofo-Mensa's holistic v...

Kevin counts down the best statistical resumes for quarterbacks in NFL history, starting with numbers 50 through 41. Episode Timestamps: 00:00 Pre-roll 00:47 Intro Music 01:07 Explanation of QB GOAT Methodology 09:06 Honorable mentions outside the top-50 12:40 No. 50: Billy Kilmer 13:34 No. 49: Bobby Layne 17:23 No. 48: Randall Cunningham 20:35 No. 47: Daunte Culpepper 23:03 No. 46: Trent Green 27...

Kevin looks over the greatest tight end career to decide if Rob Gronkowski is the greatest of them all. Plus, words of wisdom from Mike Tomlin and an update on a potential indefinite suspension for Deshaun Watson. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks with the NFL's director for data analytics about his work to improve the league's quality pf play, officiating, hiring practices and injury prevention. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through recent PFF research of the effect of perfect coverage, gives the pluses and minuses of different QB stats and talks about the conflicts of politics on social media for sports reporters. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe