Unexpected Points

Matthew Freedman ( @MattFtheOracle ) of Betting Pros joins me to talk: * The rules you need to follow when thinking about Super Bowl prop betting * Some of his favorites bets for this matchup Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View on YouTube : Listen on Apple : Please rate and review! Listen o...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com Watch the entire episode for free on YouTube . Please subscribe to the Unexpected Points YouTube channel .

Benjamin Robinson ( @benj_robinson ) of Grinding the Mocks joins me to talk: * How he came up with the idea of collecting and analyzing mock draft data * What traits we’re looking for in strong draft analysts, the draft “Super Forecasters” * Applications for his vast set of mock draft data Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becom...

Sam Schwartzstein ( @schwartzsteins ) Amazon Prime TNF broadcast joins me to talk: * His lessons from the first season of streaming broadcasting at Amazon, including the Prime Vision broadcast he helped design * How the Eagles and Chiefs match up in the Super Bowl, what insights we can take from two different ways of teambuilding * Why teams should never feel satisfied at premium positions * What...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com For the full episode, get a paid subscription Unexpected Points is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Watch on YouTube:

Josh Hermsmeyer (@friscojosh) of FiveThirtyEight joins me to discuss: * What makes a great analytical franchise, why the Eagles are lapping the field * The Nathaniel Hackett hire * What the Giants and Ravens should do at QB * Revisit bold offseason predictions * Whether Brock Purdy can sustain his strong efficiency View on YouTube : Listen on Apple : Please rate and review! Listen on Spotify : Sub...

Eric Eager of Sumer Sports joins me to discuss how the six playoff losers should approach the offseason: * Should the Vikings look at the fundamentals and choose mini-rebuild? * Are the Bucs done in their current form? * Why the Seahawks have to look at rookie quarterbacks drafting in the top-5 * Have the Chargers missed the rookie-contract window for Justin Herbert? * Lamar Jackson done in Baltim...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com I talk through all that happened this week, including: * Reactions to my Bears No. 1 pick article and how to hire coaches * All-Pro Voting, why the new system of rank ordering is better * And paid subscriber Q&A: * Lamar Jackson: What will happen this offseason? * Ranking the coaching vacancies * How much of QB...

Tej Seth and Arjun Menon join the pod to talk about their podcast, Take the Points , plus: * What the Bears should do with the No. 1 pick * Preview the playoffs * Their Big Data Bowl research * How to break into sports analytics View on YouTube: Listen on Apple: Please rate and review! Listen on Spotify: Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podcasts, * Weekly Adjust...

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com View on YouTube:

Ted Knutson, CEO and founder of StatsBomb , joins me to talk about his journey through being a professional bettor, bookmaker and creating innovative data and insights for professional soccer and American football. Follow Ted on Twitter: @mixedknuts Listen on Apple: Please rate and review! Listen on Spotify: View on YouTube: Subscribe to my substack for daily written analysis and twice a week podc...

This week Ed Feng of the The Power Rank joins me to talk about the process of ranking teams and what it means for Week 16. We also talk a little soccer in the wake of the World Cup. You can find Ed on twitter , or his great site for betting info and predictions. If watching on YouTube is your thing. Subscribe to my substack for daily written content and twice a week podcasts. This is a public epis...

For this week’s solo wrap-up pod, I discuss the significance of Mike Leach, and how his thoughtful and intentional way of understanding the game was analytics without numbers. Plus, I introduce the first selection in what will hopefully be an ongoing thing: The Unexpected Points Book Club. We’re going to start with The Perfect Pass by S.C. Gwynne . It’s a fantastic story of the Air Raid’s founding...

Chase Stuart wrote a daily blog at Football Perspective for a decade, and before that helped craft early analytical measures like ANY/A at Pro Football Reference . Chase brings a longer-term perspective to the NFL and how the league has changed over the past couple decades. Chase joins Kevin to discuss his history, what the current discourse is missing, and which teams he believes are better or wo...

I’m back on the podcasting streets. You can watch this replay on YouTube to see the video clips of the Mahomes interview, or perhaps my animated talking. I discuss my takes and research (research in links): * The injury of Jimmy Garoppolo and what it means for the 49ers. * Baker’s magical evening , McDaniels blowing it and if McVay can turn him around . * Jon Robinson’s firing and how billion-doll...

As many of you may know, I've been laid off by PFF as part of a restructure. The pod will continue, and make sure to find all of my written work at: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/ The Week 13 review article is now available with all the adjusted scores and analysis you're looking for: https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-nfl-review . Thanks so much and I'll be back later this we...

For this week's special guest on the Unexpected Points podcast, Kevin is joined by sports analytics writer, ESPN's Specialist Seth Walder, as the duo discusses and ranks the league's (analytically) best teams of the 2022 regular season thus far. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and analytical decisions for the Sunday slate of Week 12. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews the three NFL games from Thanksgiving, plus a few model-based best bets. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the MNF matchup with Jimmy shinning, points out the problems with being obsessed with upgrading a "limited" quarterback like Jimmy G or Tua, and all the Zach Wilson drama. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through all the numbers and takeaways from Week 11. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the TNF matchup, a ESPN segment of the return of the run and best bet for Week 11. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin is re-joined by The Ringer's Steve Ruiz to evaluate some of the NFL's younger QB talent.  This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin reviews all the numbers, adjusted scores and grades from Week 10's Sunday slate. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes through the numbers and implications of the Panthers-Falcons game, plus why Jeff Saturday is skeptical of analytics and the best bets for the weekend by the numbers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe