Unexpected Points

Kevin and Ryan Paganetti talk through the details of Chiefs vs Browns, including how the Browns played better than their numbers, and Kevin Stefanski had perfect decision-making. Plus, why the Patriots are unvalued after a Week 1 loss in a game where they outplayed the Dolphins. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ww...

Kevin looks deep into the advanced stats to show that the Bucs were more than two points better than the Cowboys, plus one thing to watch for every team playing this weekend. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Former coach and game management specialist Ryan Paganetti joins Kevin to discuss what they're looking for when they watch games and study the numbers, they break down TNF Buccaneers-Cowboys, or the "Does Defense Matter" Bowl, and Ryan presents a paradigm-shifting idea on how teams can block 30-50% of opponents' field-goal attempts with little additional investment. This is a public episode. If yo...

Kevin provides insight on Mac Jones getting the Week 1 start while making the case it won't take long for Justin Fields, Urban Meyer's farcical QB competition leads to cancellation, a review of smart game management during the last week of the preseason, and players you need to target in every round of fantasy football drafts. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subs...

Kevin talks to JJ Zachariason, editor-in-chief at FanDuel, about his 15 bold predictions, including Trey Lance being a top-5 quarterback, Najee Harris being a top-8 running back and DeVonta Smith leading all rookie wide receivers in fantasy. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin talks with former game mangement coach Ryan Paganetti about his time working with Chip Kelly and Doug Pederson, he takes us inside the booth and behind the scenes on how coaches view analytics, plus we discuss a few great stories, including Doug Pederson wanting to be  a little too aggressive in the Super Bowl. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or...

Kevin discusses his new research that shows strong value for the top NFL runners, but still leaves questions about paying them big money. Plus, how the Josh Allen extension shifts the extension market for Baker and Lamar, and a handful of WRs you need in every fantasy draft. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.un...

(0:00-16:02) Wentz injury/Impact on the Colts moving forward and potential new faces at QB (16:03-25:04) Nick Chubb’s New contact and the Significance it has on the Browns salary cap (25:05-33:43) “Stick to Sports”  Kevin discusses his thoughts on Simone Biles decision to not compete in Olympics (33:43-43:09) New Segment, “When keeping real goes Wrong" Does the salary cap add parody to the NFL? (4...

Kevin talks through the Aaron Rodgers agreement and what it means for Davante Adams, and how the NFLPA has failed to protect players from COVID-related financial losses. Plus, we talk with Keevin Meers of Zelus Analytics about how teams should focus more on macro strategy, and what the public doesn't know about analysis from the inside on an NFL franchise. This is a public episode. If you'd like t...

Kevin talk through the Aaron Rodgers drama and why passing up a big contract isn't that important, how to view Darrell Henderson after the Cam Akers injury, why teams should be proactive extending QBs, and why empathy makes us bad fans and decision-makers. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/...

(4:55) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s PFF grades leading up to his trade to the Rams (8:00) Breaking down Stafford’s 2020 Ranking (10th) to 2021 (6th) (10:20) Kevin breaks down Stafford’s lack of production despite having top tier receivers (11:40) Why Lamar Jackson should be ranked higher than Stafford headed into 2021 (13:17) Matt Stafford: Overrated? Lamar Jackson: Underrated? (14:51) Is it possi...

The Process (2:30) Browns new front office (4:45) Turning over likelihood of success to luck (8:00) Winning Championships (9:50) Letting players go (11:50) Picking the right players (13:00) Hue Jackson discussion (16:00) Talks about interview with Paul DePodesta (20:00) Browns progress season to season (23:30) Browns letting players go (27:00) NFL ready college QBs (30:00) How trade effects wins (...

What has Belichick been up to? (2:10) Patriots fourth down rate (9:00) Patriots trade back habits (13:30) Are the Patriots wasting draft picks (15:00) Feedback loops (28:30) How has Belichick been so good at exploiting the Feedback Loop (31:00 - 35:00) Patriots lack of comp picks (39:30) Could Belichick be on the hot seat if Mac Jones doesn’t pan out (41:30) This is a public episode. If you'd like...

Kevin reviews his final QB rankings, looks at rookie QB data to see when they should start, and find that teams are getting smarter on situational aggressiveness. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

David Giuliani, the Browns director and strategy and research, joins Kevin to talk about how the league is becoming more focused on data, how to best communicate with coaches and other decision-makers, and how recruiting has changed with so much good analysis in the public sphere. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...

Kevin quantifies the win-win nature of the Julio Jones trade to the Titans, cancels a RB-truther beat reporter, ranks the NFL quarterbacks according to analytical modeling, and challenges the notion that hard work and effort are fundamentally different from other athletic talents. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...

Kevin talks about the week's news, ranks the best and worst front office in the NFL, and talks about how we can apply insight from a new book on noise in expert opinions to the NFL. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin breaks down the Julio Jones trade situation from a the perspective of a front office in a two-year cap crunch, tracks year-over-year changes in MVP odds that point to Russell Wilson as a big-time value, and introduces a new "Stick to Sports" segment focusing this week on the biases of hundreds of Jeopardy contestants. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscri...

Kevin tries to figure out if Urban Meyer is a donkey, cancels Dan Campbell after the head coach fails Analytics 101, and tells you why Micah Parsons is a value for Defensive Rookie of the Year, despite having the shortest odds. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin discussed why we overestimate the leverage NFL players have to force trades, why draft reaches and a thing but steals aren't, and the value betting on Najee Harris for Offensive Rookie of the Year. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Kevin goes solo talking through every teams drafts, with a focus on positional value, trading down and why more humility is needed in draft evaluation. Plus, he talks about the dangers of the GM as super scout. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Matthew Freedman of the Action Network parses what's important to pay attention to predicting the NFL draft and which draft props have the highest expected returns. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Benjamin Solak of the Draft Networks joins the pod to talk through his QB evaluation process, what some are missing and why Justin Fields should be the QB2 of the 2021 class. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

JJ Zachariason of numberFire joins the pod to rank the 2021 rookie wide receiver class and explain why he's higher on Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall than the consensus. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe

Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis returns to talk about the Sam Darnold trade and ramifications for the Panthers and rookie quarterback rankings, plus he goes through his rookie running back rankings in advance of the 2021 NFL draft. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.unexpectedpoints.com/subscribe