UCLA Extension Business Insights

It’s a given that the Federal Reserve will support the banks and, therefore, the credit system in the U.S. and globally. It’s also a given that Congress will find agreements to place new cash in the hands of American families despite political polarization. This Podcast covers recovery expectations as it relates to the stock and bond markets, employment, and consequences of a Federal Reserve that...

Most have reached overload on health, politics, and economic volatility, but we should remind ourselves we’ve been here before. In this week's episode, our objective is to provide Business Insights that fight against that “overwhelmed feeling”, as we’ve most successfully as a country dealt with crises, panics, and melt-downs many times before.

The 2008-2009 financial melt-down had new and powerful “drivers” that are, once again, returning to impact our financial and job prospects. The “causation” is different as today the consumer holding a full-time job has manageable debt levels (overall) but the government sector including its massive debts, money printing, and debt monetization is the “front and center” source of high level U.S. and...

The 500+ point one-day surge in the stock market earlier this month coincided with the Federal Reserve pumping in an additional $94 billion into the fragile Repo marketplace. Interest rates want to go higher but the Fed is keeping them low with new liquidity bidding up stocks important to the Dow-Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 indices. When this liquidity slows or stops “look out below!”.

The U.S. worker/consumer is in good shape with a high stock market and low interest rates, day to day. Underneath this calm surface is considerable turmoil and increasing risk due to long-term trend changes in the Federal Government constantly increasing debt supply with an apparent reluctance to buy this debt on the part of traditional large investors. An increasingly likely outcome is increasing...

Due to continuing significant stresses in the REPO marketplace the adjustable rate mortgages, lines of credit, overdraft, and short-term government obligations are at risk for trend reversals (higher interest rates and lower short-term Treasury Note prices); if the 24 Primary Dealers of U.S. Government Debt are having problems re-selling this debt to investors we could face a spike in interest rat...

Put the stock market and official government reports aside and consider the $7 Trillion pool of investment dollars moving through our markets every business day. As we move into the Holiday period the Federal Reserve is supporting the global REPO (borrowing on government securities by the largest global banks) market by making at least $1/2 Trillion available with reported much more to come. There...

U.S. manufacturing moved abroad over the past 70 or so years based, importantly, on buying sprees of U.S. businesses investing in M & A and new plant & equipment abroad. China became a global consolidator over the past 20 or so years and is now building out AI/Robotics/6G networks to protect and enhance their manufacturing leadership. Equally, or more important, is China’s growing significance in...

Artificial Intelligence and robotics are presently impacting many jobs; expectations are that millions of salaried and commissioned positions will suffer in significant ways over the next several years. These pressures are creating a perfect storm as expected lifetimes climb above 100 years while social security and private savings plans move toward funding crises. This and more are highlighted in...

Is our economy really at “full employment” or do we systematically exclude millions of unemployed from the data? The headline unemployment report shows “an under 4% unemployment” rate. The more inclusive survey rarely quoted shows over 7% and a long-standing comprehensive private research organization shows unemployment at more than 10%. What should I believe? Why should I care? Find out and bette...

The highly publicized monthly press releases trumpeting low inflation, price stability, and high economic growth can mislead you. The underlying official data also supporting high inflation and low or no growth economy in which real price increases are suppressed intentionally. You’ll see how as well as who suffers in the next 20 or so minutes! Links referenced in this episode: www.shadowstats.com

Join Roger Torneden, Director of Business, Management, and Legal Programs at UCLA Extension as he gives an overview about preparing for the upcoming recession. To learn more about the topics discussed, visit these links: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Inversion Chart: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y Anderson School Recession Presentation (2019): https://www.anderson.ucla.edu/centers/ucla-...

A new podcast where we offer insights on today's business world.