UCLA Extension Business Insights

As discussed last year, we are now in the period of high economic risk (meaning stock and bond market declines, new job risks, and impending housing price volatility). We expected a significant bond and stock sell-off at year end 2021 and it has come albeit a month or so later. More important, the risks in the global financial markets are growing substantially as U.S. interest rates and inflation...

High inflation is embedded and exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. This year may mark the beginning of a new bear market with increasing volatility for many asset groups. Risk management is front and center as significant long-term trend changes are now in process. Our Podcast presents perspectives and suggestions for investment preservation and personal growth.

One of our Black Swan events is rapidly emerging: Russia is looking as though they plan to annex at least the Eastern part of the Ukraine. What would Russia gain if they succeed? Regardless of events this week, the new trends in bonds and stocks are down in response to the high expectation we’ve prepared for since early 2021. This year has the potential to reveal substantial bond and stock sell-of...

Keep in mind that a few hundred global investment groups account for the $Trillions that move through our financial markets each day. When they re-allocate their investment assets they change market trends. We are getting concerned about potential large sales programs for both stocks and bonds. One of the largest groups, Blackstone (in collaboration with Backrock) waited for house prices to crater...

Many manufactured goods, agricultural inputs, and services have already increased in price more than 20% in 2021! The Producer Price and Services increases are now creating and realizing significantly higher wage increases. The Federal Reserve will have a limited impact on controlling this different kind of inflation which is not demand driven but supply restricted. Please access this recent inter...

Inflation will be the headline through the New Year with major ripples dragging down the bond and stock markets. New threats are emerging in Europe: a payback from the U.S. caused the 2008-2009 Great Recession? The European Central Bank (ECB) may be a big black swan that can drag down the financial markets in the fashion of the ‘08-‘09 financial meltdown and global recession. Please access these l...

We are now, officially, in a high inflation economy with many suffering from double-digit rent increases, massive childcare cost increases, long-term supply chain issues, and the prospects of higher interest rates and lower stock prices. Childcare is a core issue that impacts family health, education, and income; please do access these NPR links for thoughts on its impact and continuance: https://...

There are so many Black Swan possibilities that it’s better to prepare for one than to forecast which one will impact our markets. Whichever one emerges consider they’re already been deployed and “more of the same” may not be enough. Please give a listen to this most recent interview from a few days ago (Danielle DiMartino Booth): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F7cDv0hR5G4.

The last two weeks solidified our inflation, jobs, and the Federal Reserve’s policy trap (their policies are not succeeding in restoring the U.S. economy to growth and they’re actually ‘doubling down’ on failing actions). Please view this brief video from key global investor advisers at the national New Orleans Economic Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-gmPwBsMuk.

This week we delve into how we correctly anticipated Stagflation more than a year ago and why it’s a long-term issue. Former Fed Executive, author of “Fed Up”, and Founder of Quill Intelligence provides a quite recent update on inflation, stock, bond, and cyber currency expectations while introducing her concerns about growing Federal Reserve risks. Please start at the beginning and watch the firs...

We share the latest Anderson Forecast for CA and LA as well as a key interview with Mr. Ray Dalio, founder, and head of Bridgewater Associates (one of the largest and most successful global hedge funds). Anderson Forecast link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3v-XzWhWrk&t=4983s (particularly the first 60 minutes).

Our podcasts include the thinking and decisions by the relatively small number of fund managers that strongly influence bond, stock, real estate, and currency markets. For comprehensive hedge fund leaders and investment information, visit https://www.tipranks.com/hedge-funds/top, which is a free resource. Another great source is this video, which is a bit long, but really valuable for understandin...

Happy 50th Podcast to Us! We thank our loyal listeners for your continued support. Please view these recent links to top investment fund manager interviews as they focus on today’s risks and tomorrow’s trend changes. Michael Gentile and Stansberry Research: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWoDlwnskGs Jim Richards and Keith McCullough: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORJ_tau_CYU

This week, we discuss how a substantial decline in the U.S. dollar and dollar markets is expected over the next year or two and we begin to bring in top money fund strategists starting with Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and strategist of DoubleLine ($200 Billion investor).

It’s becoming clear that consumer inflation can no longer be disguised as a blip or “transitory”. Wide recognition of this as an indisputable issue will create large sell-offs in the bond and stock markets…. with a long recovery period anticipated.

The stock and bond markets are now at the long-awaited peak…the actual high point should be this Fall or, at the latest, Winter. Individual investors including the new investor generation of Millennials are “all-in” along with the Federal Reserve and Federal Government on money and debt creation. We can expect more Federal Reserve moves to stabilize the banking system and continue to drive up the...

So far we’ve seen the top 1% or so of our country benefit from the Fed’s money creation in league with Congress's multi-Trillion dollar deficit spending! No one can argue the high inflation in the stock, bond, and residential real estate markets. Now, we’re on track to see historically high inflation in consumer prices with continuing stresses in the job market.

Time to diversify out of many stock and bond investments; re-evaluate your own investment risks! Specialized and alternative investment categories and actions will be the next mega-trend with Trillions moving out of stock and bond indexed funds into real estate, commodities, and other specialized investment classes. Once again, crypto is not an investment class and it’s best to avoid.

Do you have an idea how to value Bitcoin as an investment? As a currency? This podcast will give you time-tested perspectives of valuing a new asset class. Don’t buy cryptocurrency before trying to evaluate the risks inherent in the early stages of adoption, technology evolution, and Central Bank influences as we discuss.

Today’s focus is good news on our economic recovery plus a look in-depth at the national real estate marketplace (particularly REIT’s). Link to the UCLA Anderson Forecast video: https://www. Youtube.com/watch?v=VkPYhht2aws Link to the Hoya Capital REIT article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432330-apartment-reits-happy-landlords-unhappy-renters

Stock groups that perform differently during an inflationary period (which we’re experiencing) vs. our “Goldilock’s Years” should be considered. Perspectives on “where we are” in our recovery and Crypto’s future included.

JPMorgan’s top analyst is sounding the inflation alarm; we are at an inflection point where major asset reallocations will shortly impact the bond and stock markets in most negative ways. His investment advice is to move away from bonds and technology leaders (sell) and move toward commodity funds and stocks (buy). Does this make sense? You decide after today’s podcast! Links used in this podcast:...

After a year of COVID distancing and endless money creation, financial markets are self-sustaining. Key components of market psychology and cumulative bias has replaced economic and financial metrics. It’s happened before with terrible financial outcomes for many. If you feel you are missing the vast crypto or stock market profits this podcast is for you! Link to psychological bias’ covered in the...

Many millions are left out of the recovery and many businesses cannot find needed employees for current jobs. What’s going on? Links referred to in this podcast: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jolts.pdf

Results of recent key studies are shared with these studies available via these links: Kastle: https://www.kastle.com/city-by-city-views-of-americas-office-use/ PWC survey: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html KPMG survey: https://advisory.kpmg.us/articles/2020/covid-american-worker.html American Community Survey: https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/commuting....