UBS On-Air: Market Moves

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the US-China relationship ahead of next week’s summit in Beijing, the Strait of Hormuz closure and its impact to global energy prices, and what this all means for broader global markets and investor sentiment.

Emerging market equities have come a long way, evolving from commodity-driven high-beta plays to a dynamic mix of tech, AI, and regional growth stories. In this episode, we break down what’s powering EM returns today, the rise of North Asia’s tech giants, the shifting role of commodities, and why diversification matters more than ever. We also spotlight the key catalysts to watch in the months ahe...

Axios newswires reported the US and Iran “closing in on a deal”. Axios published similar reports on 15 April, 17 April, and 26 April. Markets want to believe, and blind faith drives pricing at the moment. The shape of the current war is largely in Iran’s hands. Investors have few insights into Iranian policy making.

For decades, emerging markets have been seen as the riskier part of portfolios. We discuss what has changed, and why markets are suddenly challenging that assumption now. Plus, we highlight how investors should consider using emerging market equities, bonds, and currencies in portfolios going forward. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief In...

Elaine Zaharis-Nikas serves as Head of Fixed Income and Preferred Securities and a senior portfolio manager for the Cohen & Steers preferred securities portfolios. Elaine joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerati...

US policy in the Gulf war has been unpredictable, but publicly unpredictable. Yesterday’s retreat from“guiding”ships through the Strait of Hormuz was a public decision. The pressures of rising gasoline prices in the US economy are publicly visible. However, investors also need to know Iranian policy, which is privately unpredictable. The forces pressuring the Iranian government are difficult to de...

Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, is joined by Pat Haskell, Head of the Municipal Bond Group within the Portfolio Management Group at BlackRock, for a wide-ranging conversation on the state of the municipal bond market. They cover a performance update and outlook, share views on muni credit, and discuss the growth in SMAs and ETFs in the...

AI-related investment in the US is booming, the rest of private sector investment not so much. Still, it's a positive for the macro outlook. We discuss this, the factors driving recent market activity, along with positioning guidance from CIO. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras

Markets have had a muted reaction to reports of the US and Iran exchanging fire in the Gulf. Investors had tended to dismiss US President Trump’s weekend optimism and focused instead on comments from Iran, so an escalation was not unexpected. Prices are still not at levels that would bring supply and demand into balance (once reserves are exhausted), and various politicians globally talking of sub...

We explore a topic that’s been gaining momentum, especially among working families: Financial Independence, Retire Early, or FIRE. Justin Waring from the UBS Chief Investment Office Global Investment Management team, joins to explain what the FIRE movement is, and why it’s resonating right now. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump posted on social media that the US will “guide” commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Media reports suggest this will not involve naval escorts. Iran’s parliamentary security committee head Aziz called the posts delusional. The oil market reaction gives weight to the Iranian view. US gasoline prices are approaching USD 4.5 per US gallon, which is an incentive for the...

The end of Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair brings a shift in US monetary policy, with a divided committee and new leadership on the horizon. We break down what the Fed transition means for interest rates, the outlook for further cuts, and how incoming chair Warsh’s views on AI, the Fed’s balance sheet, and inflation targets could shape fixed income markets. Tune in at the start of the trading we...

Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, joins to reflect on this week’s FOMC meeting and the likely final press conference held by Chairman Jerome Powell. We also discuss what a Kevin Warsh-led Fed might look like, along with outline expectations for monetary policy through the balance of the year. Plus, a health check on US economic activity. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump vowed to keep the (US) Hormuz blockade, declaring the Iranian economy was “crashing,” which would force negotiations. Investors are more inclined to look at the state of the US economy as determining how the situation evolves. In the Wile E Coyote scenario, the US is off the edge of the cliff but happily running on thin air. Thursday’s data showed household savings rates have fa...

On this episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on the factors that are contributing to global equity markets grinding higher, despite continued uncertainty stemming from geopolitics. We also touch on what investors should make of crude oil prices being once again on the rise, and assess how today’s market environment compares to that of the 1990s.

Despite King Charles reassuring US members of Congress that there was no “rearguard action” to re-establish control, the Federal Reserve has acquired a distinctly British accent. Four dissents (in two directions) is a straightforward Bank of England imitation (economics is always more convincing in a British accent). Fed Chair Powell pledged to remain in office as a governor.

Arif Joshi is a Senior Managing Director and Head of the Emerging Markets platform at Bramshill Investments. Arif shares boots-on-the-ground insights following a recent trip to Venezuela, as we discuss the country’s geopolitical relations with the US, along with the landscape for energy production and exploration. We also discuss the US-Iran war and its’ implications to economic activity in the re...

The UAE’s imminent departure from the OPEC oil cartel is the most significant to date. Near term, there is little impact—oil prices are primarily influenced by Iran. Longer term, it may mean more supply, although OPEC’s influence in broadly defined energy supply is likely to decline at an accelerated pace with electrification. The move may signal a more urgent need for revenue by the UAE—reflectin...

The seventh edition of CIO’s 250 years of US innovation series, A great future in plastics, examines how credit cards evolved from a simple piece of plastic into a global payments infrastructure. Our conversation explores how networks, technology, and trust transformed everyday transactions, reshaping commerce and the modern economy. Featured is Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Strategist Americas,...

The longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the less market impact US President Trump’s early morning social media posts are likely to have. While physical reserves exist, prices can move on expectations. As physical shortages become a threat, expectations will have less of an impact—bad news for speculators placing conveniently timed trades. However, consumers can absorb higher prices for a time.

Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, drops by to review the latest allocation recommendations and key messages from the UBS Chief Investment Office, per the May edition of the UBS House View. We also assess how the markets are now viewing the US-Iran War, performance of Q1 corporate earnings, and what to expect from this week’s FOMC meeting. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Media reports suggest Iran’s government has proposed terms to the US to allow a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets’ bias to optimism produced a positive reaction. The terms apparently defer nuclear discussions, which may be a problem for the US administration. Recent polls gave US President Trump very weak approval ratings over the US affordability crisis, suggesting there could be politic...

An influx of large-scale US IPOs is set to reshape market dynamics, creating new competition for capital, index presence, and profit pools. Fast-tracked index additions could drive rotation out of the largest index names. At the same time new AI-focused companies target digital profit pools. We see this as a signal to diversify beyond the biggest index weights and consider physical assets less exp...

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David explains CIO’s positive outlook for US equities, reflects on why equity marke...

A look at the landscape for Agency RMBS and the Housing Market, including an outlook for rates, and thoughts around broader fixed income positioning. Featured are Clayton Triick, Head of Portfolio Management of Public Strategies with Angel Oak Capital Advisors, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Bryan Contreras