UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Investors await the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday policy decision. There is little expectation of a rate change. Preliminary April employment data showed reasonable strength although some areas of job growth (e.g. trucking) are clearly vulnerable as import volumes slow.

Shane reflects on the first 100 days of the Trump administration, along with updates on where efforts and negotiations stand on Capitol Hill surrounding a substantial reconciliation bill. Plus, a look at current US-Ukraine relations and where efforts stand with Russia peace talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

We close out a busy macro week with thoughts from Brian on the latest US employment and GDP data. Plus, a look at what to expect in the week ahead. Featured is Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US “Temu tax” takes effect at midnight, whereby US consumers pay their government for the privilege of buying low cost products directly from China. The tax is unlikely to show up in consumer price data (it is doubtful that Temu prices are used in the calculation), but it is a visible price increase to many US consumers—a reminder that they, not exporters, pay trade tariffs.

Having just attended the IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington DC, Alejo rejoins the conversation for some boots-on-the ground takeaways around the impacts of US trade policy to global economies. Plus, a review of focus points when it comes to broader emerging markets, China, and Latin America. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Officer. Host: Dani...

The only certainty economists have about yesterday’s first-quarter GDP data is that it is wrong. Declining survey response rates and economies that structurally change more rapidly than statisticians can measure have conspired to make GDP everywhere subject to more frequent and larger revisions. Nonetheless, broad trends show an economy being rapidly shaped by US President Trump’s policy.

As the Trump administration marks 100 days in office, Burkhard reflects on how global markets have performed during this span. Plus, we dive into the US-China tariff conflict and discuss how this trading relationship may evolve from here, along with what investors should be mindful of when it comes to China’s economic model.

Online retailer Amazon denied reports it would publish the tariff impact on the price of each item sold on its US website. The general lack of tariff transparency risks higher US inflation by enabling retailers to indulge in profit-led inflation—blaming tariffs for price increases that actually raise profit margin. Lack of transparency also risks consumers blaming tariffs for every price increase,...

Justin and Ainsely outline the considerations for adding annuity income as part of one’s retirement strategy, along with explain the current appeal of annuities, and steps investors can take in order to make a plan. Featured is Justin Waring, Senior Total Wealth Strategist, & Ainsley Carbone, Retirement Strategist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump is to mark their 100th day in office with a partial retreat on auto-part trade taxes, and a speech. The speech risks further erratic policy pronouncements—Trump declared very negative approval ratings to be “fake news”, but may want to blame external forces for their poll performance. That might lead to policy pronouncements on immigration, trade, or some other economically sign...

Coming off of one of the best weeks for US equities in 2025, Jason considers whether investors are getting ahead of themselves as macro uncertainty remains. Jason also weighs in on the debate over whether US exceptionalism can continue. Plus, a review of CIO’s latest market outlook and investor recommendations per the May UBS House View. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas,...

Last Friday’s US data showed a notable improvement in late April consumer sentiment, but only for registered Republicans. Consumers today are buying goods imported before the oppressive burden of trade taxes (on average, it will take about three months for pre-tax inventory to be used). This means economic reality has not penetrated the partisan media bubble around consumers. Businesses are faster...

Hear views on the US equity markets from Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios, and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Senior Equity Investment Specialist.

Hear from top portfolio managers and business heads from UBS Asset Management’s Muni, Taxable Fixed Income, and Liquidity teams. They share views on the markets and what they believe you should be focused on within the fixed income space. Recorded on 04.17.25

China said it was not negotiating with the US over trade. US President Trump avowed that the US was talking with someone (who they are talking to is a secret, apparently). Things like this might possibly be contributing to the economically damaging levels of uncertainty. The US and South Korea have agreed a framework for trade talks (North Korea escaped US tariffs). South Korea and the US had a fr...

The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book has biases. The businesses that provide anecdotal evidence will have an agenda, and the Fed economists who edit the anecdotes into coherence understand the economics of trade. Nonetheless, the latest edition used “uncertainty” 80 times—more than twice the references during the pandemic or the global financial crisis. Erratic policies are having an economic impact,...

How much longer will uncertainty last, and where might it all settle? Burkhard weighs in as investors continue to navigate everything from policy pivots to Fed independence to inflation, and much more. Plus, thoughts on how investors should react to a market recovery (or a deeper downturn). We also check in on the status of the global rotation trade, and gold.

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, Sangeeta Marfatia, Senior Closed-end Fund Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Bar...

With investor concerns growing, US President Trump demonstrated the art of the retreat. They stated they had “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Trump may not be able to (legally), but markets will still have lingering concerns about Fed independence. Trump also said they would be “very nice” in any trade negotiations with China, raising hopes that the tax burden on US consumer...

Despite near-term headwinds and elevated volatility, the market dislocation brings opportunities for muni investors. Sudip and Jeannine provide a muni market performance update and share portfolio considerations for muni investors. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, & Jeannine Lennon, Municipal Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump again called for lower US interest rates. Markets interpreted this as undermining Federal Reserve independence, and markets do not like that (US assets weakened). The coming US economic slowdown is driven more by rising risk than high rates. Borrowing to fund investment and consumption balances the cost of capital with uncertainty about the future. Rising uncertainty is the US p...

Following a relatively calm holiday shortened trading week with little to no developments on the tariff front, Jason updates on where tariff negotiations stand, and what to look out for in the near-term. We also recap last week’s macro developments, spanning retail sales to Q1 corporate earnings, along with takeaways from Fed Chairman Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago (and the White...

US National Economic Council Director Hassett said US President Trump was investigating whether they could fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Investors seem less than happy with the idea of a politicized Fed—the US dollar and long-dated government bonds have weakened. There are checks on the president’s authority. Fed governors need to be confirmed by the Senate. The FOMC chair does not have to be...

In the short period following early April’s “Liberation Day” announcement of tariffs by the White House, questions remain amongst global investors as to whether the world is headed towards a protracted trade war, and a new regime of significantly higher tariffs. What might this all mean for Europe? Which sectors are most at risk? How can investors position portfolios accordingly? Paul Donovan, Chi...

Federal Reserve Chair Powell noted US President Trump’s trade taxes would raise inflation and lower economic growth. Markets have already worked this out, but Powell saying it has policy implications. On the evidence of (unreliable) sentiment surveys, over a third of US consumers think inflation will exceed 10% this year. Powell emphasized longer-term inflation expectations, which should still all...