UBS On-Air: Market Moves

US Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggested US rates should be cut now, and Federal Reserve Chair Powell should resign or be fired. Do investors want to live in a world where Fed independence is compromised and Lutnick influences policy? To judge from the dollar’s reaction, the answer is “no”.

The proposed US-Japan trade deal means US buyers of Japanese goods (including autos) face a 15% tax. Steel is still taxed at 50%. Of course, deals are not the same as implementation, as the UK steel industry can testify. There are media reports that Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will resign in August. Investors are unlikely to expect significant policy change given the lack of a majority in eithe...

Paul rejoins in-studio to spotlight a special edition of the CEO Macro Briefing Book publication series which covers tax and economic considerations that stem from the One Big Beautiful Bill, for both business owners and individuals. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested a “wholesale review” of the Federal Reserve was necessary (while supporting central bank independence). In the context of recent challenges, these remarks may trouble investors. Central bank independence was critical to the post-1970s moderation of inflation, and helped prevent the post-pandemic inflation from being worse than it was.

Despite relatively low trading volumes and narrow trading ranges as of late, there is still plenty factors top of mind for investors that could stir up market volatility in the weeks ahead. This morning, we check-in on the Q2 earnings season, reflect on Fed independence concerns, and assess macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy. Plus, a review of CIO’s market outlook and portfol...

South Korean export data for the first part of July showed growth, adjusted for differences in working days. Semiconductor sales were strong, and exports to Europe continued to grow. The US habit of taxing its consumers if they buy foreign steel meant exports in that sector were weaker. The data is a reminder that while the US is an important economy, there are other important economies that are n...

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – How AI will feature in upcoming tech earnings, macro uncertainty stemming from evolving US trade policy, and how...

Torsten rejoins Jason in the New York podcast studio to exchange thoughts on Fed independence (and the course for monetary policy), the direction of US trade policy (and economic implications), along with 2H25 market outlooks and portfolio positioning considerations. Featured are Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office, and Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Econom...

After this week’s events, the question is whether anyone can advocate for US rate cuts without being seen as a political puppet? Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Waller offered some (debatable, but valid) economic points in favor of US rate cuts, but the position is politically tainted. The problem for the Fed and markets is that the US administration’s policy continues to create considerable u...

The UBS AI Podcast explores the fascinating and evolving world of artificial intelligence, how it's transforming industries, redefining what's possible and reshaping the future. On this episode of the CEO Series, Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, converses with Dr. Kai-Fu Lee, Chairman of Sinovation Ventures, and CEO of 01.AI.

With 2H25 now underway, Leslie shares a performance outlook for fixed income assets, along with outlines positioning and risk considerations. We also touch on an outlook for interest rates and share views on investment grade versus high yield bonds. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Carli Torres

US President Trump has recently shown an eagerness to change the media narrative. The narrative changed yesterday with speculation about the future of Federal Reserve Chair Powell. That shift might be expensive. Trump declared they had been “surprised” by Powell’s appointment. Trump originally appointed Powell.

Shane drops by to highlight the legislative focuses of Congress post One Big Beautiful Bill, including a look into “Crypto Week” which is currently taking place up on Capitol Hill. We also touch on the latest with respect to US trade policy and negotiations with the EU and Mexico. Plus, thoughts on the latest US involvement in the Russia-Ukraine War. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmenta...

US June consumer price inflation gave some troubling signals about data quality—not only are fewer prices being measured, there is circumstantial evidence that budget cuts mean more prices are being guessed. However, on the basis of the numbers provided, it is clear that President Trump’s trade taxes are being passed through to US consumers—the monthly increase in consumer appliance prices was the...

A mid-year performance recap and outlook for the municipal bond market, including a look at why munis are poised for a better second-half performance. We also cover sector preferences, policy implications, and investment considerations for long-term munis. Featured is Sudip Mukherjee, Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US June consumer price inflation is the first number that might show trade tax effects. Only half the expected trade tax rise has hit the economy so far. Inventory stockpiling means pre-tax items are still available. How readily US firms can pass on price increases matters. Post-pandemic inflation made this easier. Tariffs have dominated the (non-Republican) media narrative, making price increases...

Jason weighs in on range of top-of-mind topics to begin the week, including the resurgence of tariff and Fed independence concerns, along with a preview of the upcoming earnings season and June inflation data. We also touch on why the “Roaring 20s” regime is still in play, and review CIO’s current market outlook and positioning recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Ame...

Financial markets seem content to assume US President Trump will default to retreating from their latest trade tax threats. If financial investors want to change their position, they can do so at the touch of a button. In the real world, decisions around factory construction or hiring cannot be reversed so quickly, and the random nature of policy therefore raises real world risks that may have con...

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - how to think about this past weekend’s tariff developments, high equity valuations, June CPI data, and bank earn...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard weighs whether investors are entering the summer season with a sense of complacency as markets hover near all-time highs despite persisting uncertainty. We also touch on the prospects for Fed rate cuts in the coming months and the implications of the implementation of “curve control” to investors and global markets.

Matt Tormey, Equity Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins Shiavon Chatman to recap the trading week - including an update on the latest developments surrounding US trade policy, and thoughts on current US equity valuations. Plus, a preview of the upcoming corporate reporting season, and recommendations when it comes to positioning within US equities.

The latest US tax increases were a 35% tax on products from Canada—in spite of Canadian concessions over digital taxes. It is not clear if the tax applies to all Canadian products, or just products not covered by the revised NAFTA (currently taxed at 25%), or to oil (currently 10%). US President Trump signaled that when they were tired of the lost art of letter writing, all remaining countries wou...

Alejo rejoins in studio for a mid-year conversation on the Emerging Markets, including a recap of first-half performance drivers, expectations for the second-half, and thoughts on positioning across emerging market assets. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, Chief Investment Officer for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes were a masterclass in the art of sitting on a fence. US President Trump’s trade tax inflation might be a one-off, or it might persist. The labor market may be weak enough to justify rate cuts, or not. Uncertainty over trade tax levels is a problem, but the real issue is the lack of clarity about the severity of second-round effects (e.g. profit-led inflation). M...

Jordan Brooks serves as Principal and Co-Head of the Macro Strategies Group at AQR Capital Management. With no shortage of macroeconomic and geopolitical risks out there for investors to consider, Jordan explains what is top of mind for his team at AQR, and shares guidance when it comes to navigating these types of risks accordingly (including the role alternative investments can play in a portfol...