UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Jason reflects on last week’s Jackson Hole Symposium, and speech delivered by Fed Chair Powell - we discuss what the speech suggests about the road ahead for monetary policy, and the market response. Plus, thoughts on overall market pricing as of late, and what investors have been focused on, along with a look at the latest asset allocation recommendations from CIO, per the latest UBS House View....

US President Trump issued a letter purporting to fire Federal Reserve Governor Cook—an unprecedented action. After recent comments, investors will inevitably view this as an assault on Fed independence. There are obstacles—Trump already appointed a majority of Fed governors, without changing policy independence. If the dismissal survives the courts, the Senate must confirm any successor. Fed presi...

Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole last week was classic Powell. That is not a terribly good thing. Powell signaled an increased probability of a September rate cut to counter the damage of trade taxes on the US economy. Markets liked that. But this was essentially the “data dependent” mantra padded with additional rhetoric.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week - NVIDIA’s earnings on Wednesday.

Dan Peris is a Senior Portfolio Manager, and Head of the Income and Value Group at Federated Hermes and has authored several books that are focused on equity investing. Dan joins the 1285 studio in New York to share his thoughts on the current landscape for dividend equity investing, including a look at positioning considerations, and risks. We also discuss the benefits of geographic diversificati...

In my view, central bank policy would have been better served had US President Trump extended former Fed Chair Yellen's term instead of appointing Powell. Powell has lacked confidence, and failed to articulate a medium-term vision for the economy at a time of uncertainty caused by structural change. The resulting mantra of “data dependency” has not been helpful as data has very obviously becom...

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes offered no surprise—a majority of members thought inflation a bigger threat than unemployment, which was obvious given the vote. US President Trump called for a Democrat-appointed Fed governor to resign. In the broader context, investors may worry about whether the Fed still has the appearance of being independent. In a fiat currency system, trust is key and eve...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard reflects on last Friday’s Alaska summit and how investors should link about peace efforts for Ukraine and the region. We also preview this week’s Jackson Hole symposium where Fed Chair Jerome Powell will focus on the themes of changing demographics, productivity and macroeconomic policy. Plus, a preview of an upcoming investor summit in Switzerland wh...

The UK actually managed to publish some data without delay or suspension. July inflation rates were slightly higher than expected, although disinflation forces are also evident. A 30.2% monthly increase in airfares did much to push the figures higher. This is almost certainly a seasonal adjustment distortion related to school holidays.

The global data calendar is unusually empty today, allowing investors a chance to speculate idly without any substantial information. This is particularly dangerous in the social media world of hashtag economics—fake news can spread faster and farther than the truth.

Jason drops by to reflect on the recent July inflation prints and what the data suggests about the inflationary environment in the US. We also address concerns about potential political interference in producing economic data, preview Chair Jay Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole, and review CIO’s investment recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investm...

Market reactions to Friday’s events in Alaska are likely to be muted. The Russia-Ukraine war is not producing many market significant outcomes. While US President Trump seems to be following Russian President Putin’s lead at the moment, the changeable nature of administration policy means investors are not likely to take any direction as certain.

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – progress on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, key retail earnings, and remarks from Fed Chair Powell.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Scott DiMaggio, Head of Fixed Income with AllianceBernstein, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host:...

While official US July producer price inflation numbers were higher than expected, the signs of the progression of trade taxes were as expected. Supply chains have become longer and more complex—trade taxes progress down supply chains over months, not days. Rising producer prices without rising consumer prices does not automatically mean profits are being squeezed—it means goods in stores represen...

On this week’s episode of Viewpoints, Burkhard shares thoughts on how key forces such as the labor market, inflation, and political pressure are shaping the Fed’s decision making on monetary policy, along with how this year’s dollar-decline compares to previous declines. Plus, guidance when it comes to navigating turbulent markets.

UK second-quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The numbers will of course be subject to revision (and lots of revision), but for the time being this rather confounds the insistent negative narrative. Growth seems to have been focused toward the end of the quarter.

Kurt rejoins in-studio for the latest POTUS 47 update where we discuss the developments surrounding US trade policy, concerns over Fed autonomy, and geopolitical points of interest - how these factors have been impacting the markets and shaping the investment outlook. Featured is Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Yesterday’s July US consumer price inflation data showed trade taxes seeping into prices. US appliance prices are higher than in March—in most other major economies, they are lower. Tire prices leapt in July. Auto prices are not reflecting tariffs, but that was not likely—cars arriving as late as June would have been tariff exempt, and from dockside to car lot takes up to six months. Pre-tax auto...

In this month’s Fixed Income Strategist, we review foundational elements of the fixed income market and outline rationale for maintaining a diversified approach within the asset class. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, & Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Carli Torres

US July consumer price inflation is due. The details will show more of the April trade taxes seeping into consumer prices—although a 10% tariff equates to around a 4% consumer price increase, and service prices should be largely unaffected. This data is less reliable than that released just six months ago—not because of political bias, but because funding cuts mean fewer price points are measured.

As markets continue to shrug off risk factors, Jason shares thoughts on the current environment and how to position within. We discuss the week’s notable macro data releases, spanning inflation readings to retail sales, the potential policy impacts of recent Fed personnel changes, along with share an outlook for gold. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment...

The US administration has promised to clarify “misinformation” about trade taxes on gold following an official ruling from customs officials suggesting US buyers of certain gold bars have been taxed since 9 April. That could potentially include some of the gold now covering the walls of the White House’s oval office. Investors suppose a clarification means a repudiation of the ruling. This rather...

Tune in every Monday morning ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on the most important market drivers in the week ahead, along with opportunities beyond the consensus. This week – key macro releases, including CPI, Retail Sales, and Industrial Production data, along with the remains of the Q...

Join Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team with UBS Asset Management, as he shares a performance update for US equities at the midpoint of 2025. We also cover an outlook for the US economy, the ongoing impact of artificial intelligence to US equities, along with a look at equity sector themes. Host: Daniel Cassidy. Recorded on 25.07.24