UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Having recently attended the UBS Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong, Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, stops by the studio to share reflections and takeaways. We cover some key points of interest from the conference, including how factors such as geopolitics and AI are influencing the region. Plus, how the overall experience reshaped Alejo’s investment views. Host: Daniel C...

US Treasury Secretary Bessent warmly endorsed Federal Reserve Chair Warsh, describing Warsh as competent and capable of lowering inflation. Such endorsements are not unusual, but as Warsh had to deny being US President Trump’s “sock puppet” this sort of intervention might shape perceptions of political influence. US inflation should fall as the inflationary effects of administration policies (tari...

A wide-ranging conversation on the landscape for private credit investing, including performance drivers, risk considerations, and what’s important for investors to focus on. Featured are Dan Oneglia, Global CIO of Liquid Credit Strategies, CEO and Co-CIO of Blackstone Multi-Asset Credit & Income Fund with Blackstone, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the...

Technology equities exhibited some volatility overnight (South Korea’s markets falling quite noticeably). This is not caused by shifting economic expectations, allowing economists to exhibit indifference. It is too soon to be talking about wealth effects, and for now, consumers’ desire to consume should outweigh any consequences of market volatility.

An introduction to what The Great Wealth Transfer is, the implications of immense wealth changing hands, and how wealth managers must adapt to fulfill the needs and preferences of future wealth holders. Over a multiple part series of episodes, Marianna Mamou, Head of Advice Beyond Investing with the UBS Chief Investment Office, will break down these topics further. Host: Daniel Cassidy

This episode explores the signals in the most consequential Fed debut in nearly two decades: what happened, how markets reacted, and where to go from here. The Fed held rates steady for a fourth consecutive meeting, while Warsh was more hawkish than expected, emphasizing price stability and the Fed’s institutional credibility alongside a shift away from the easing bias. It also examines how he opt...

There has been a heated exchange over the situation in the Gulf this weekend. However, US Vice President Vance is in Switzerland to talk with Iranian officials. There have been cautiously positive statements from Iran on the talks, and given market perceptions of the balance of power, that fact (plus the inherent market bias to optimism) has produced lower oil prices.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David discusses how much new equity issuance there could be this year from both IPO...

Yesterday, US Vice-President Vance denied being the “fall guy” for the position the US finds itself in with Iran, but has chosen not to fly to Switzerland for talks at the moment. Markets assume delayed negotiations would just extend the ceasefire, and are fixated on the volume of shipping (and oil) through Hormuz.

Shane drops by to reflect on the wide range of topics covered during this week’s G-7 summit in France, including renewed efforts by leaders to end the Russia-Ukraine war. We also discuss the fourteen-point plan included within the agreed to US-Iran memorandum of understanding, along with what the months ahead might have in store. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Go...

Following this week’s FOMC meeting - the first led by new Chairman, Kevin Warsh - Andrew drops by to share an assessment of the statement and press conference, along with an outlook for monetary policy. Plus, a health check on the US economy as we look towards the second half of 2026. Featured is Andrew Dubinsky, Senior US Economist, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve meeting produced a hawkish impression, with a strong focus on fighting inflation. That may put Fed Chair Warsh at odds with US President Trump, as the Fed’s own research suggested US tariffs have added to inflation. Near-term policy changes seem unlikely, given the number of proposed committees Warsh is establishing.

Nate Walton is a Partner and serves as the Head of Private Equity Secondaries for Ares Management. Nate drops by the UBS podcast studio in New York for a comprehensive discussion around the secondaries market - including the market evolution, supply-demand dynamics, return drivers, manager selection considerations, and more. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged today. The Bank of Japan started with an accommodative stance, and has moved toward neutral. The European Central Bank started with a neutral stance, and unnecessarily moved toward a restrictive policy. The Fed started the year with a mildly restrictive policy, and there is no necessity for change.

We discuss the factors behind YTD muni performance relative to other fixed income sectors, against a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, rate volatility, and elevated supply. Plus, a look at opportunities within prepaid gas bonds. Featured are Sudip Mukherjee and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategists Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As expected, the Bank of Japan raised rates to 1%, a level last seen in the distance past of 1995. This was a different move from the recent ECB policy error—unlike Europe, Japan began the year with an accommodative monetary stance. The rate increase is part of a process of returning to neutral, and is broadly considered appropriate.

While it was an exciting weekend for sports fans, it was also a notable weekend on the geopolitical front, with the US and Iran having agreed to a deal that will re-open the Strait of Hormuz. We discuss what this means for the markets, along with what investors will watch for during this week’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. Plus, a review of CIO’s current positioning recommendations. Featured i...

The announcement of an Iran-US deal (to be signed on Friday) has supported risk markets and allowed oil prices to fall moderately. The deal comes before strategic petroleum reserves were exhausted, limiting the economic damage from the war. Iran will not toll shipping through Hormuz for 60 days—after that it is not clear, but tolls are not likely to be a major economic cost.

A US policy restricting access to a cutting edge AI model led to a sudden shutdown for all users last week, raising questions about what AI regulation means for markets. This episode explores how concerns around misuse, including jailbreaking and cyberattacks, could impact model development, access, and competition across regions, and what this means for markets in the near term.

We discuss the factors that have led to a pronounced repricing of US interest rates, an outlook for monetary policy, and CIO’s current fixed income positioning recommendations. Plus, a look at the lending that is powering AI investment, and the implications to credit markets. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, and Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Stra...

Shane drops by to update on the latest surrounding a potential deal signing over the weekend to end the US-Iran conflict, along with updates on recent legislative developments spanning the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act and Secure America Act. Plus, a look a renewed efforts from the Trump administration to enact new tariffs. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor,...

The expected error from the ECB was accompanied by rhetoric citing concerns about oil price pressures broadening throughout the Eurozone economy. There is no evidence of this reported broadening—non-oil prices should be expected to pass on oil-related costs, and only a wage-spiral or profit-led inflation would constitute a broadening of inflation pressures. These are notable by their absence. None...

The ECB is almost certain to commit a policy mistake today. Raising rates will not change Eurozone inflation or inflation expectations. This policy is stuck in an unhelpful 2022 mindset. Consumers will continue to reduce savings rates to pay for higher oil prices. The main consequence of today’s error is to increase fragility in the economy, rather than doing more serious damage.

On this episode of Viewpoints, with the commencement of the World Cup tournament just days away, Burkhard outlines the economics of soccer and the highly anticipated event. We also touch on the direction of interest rates, and the prospects for newly minted Fed Chair Kevin Warsh having to begin his term with a rate-hike, rather than a rate-cut.

May US headline consumer price inflation is expected to rise as the price of the Iran war is being passed through relatively quickly to consumers. A supply shock might have a delayed effect (with profit margins being squeezed), but the very visible cause of price increases and the precedents of the pandemic supply shocks and tariffs make it easier for firms to pass on higher costs without delay (l...