UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Today is US employment report Friday—except it is not, because of the impenetrable fog of US government shutdown. As low fear of unemployment is a crucial line of defense keeping the US from recession, this is frustrating.

Our conversation outlines the current landscape for fixed income investors, and where to locate opportunity within the asset class. We also touch on an outlook for monetary policy, rates and the macro environment. Featured are Dan Hyman, Senior Portfolio Manager with PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassid...

The US government shutdown continues—Senate Republicans failed to pass their measure to end it. US President Trump indicated some federal government workers may be fired, not furloughed. That would doubtless face legal challenges, but might also increase fear of unemployment. Low fear of unemployment has helped keep US growth mediocre rather than recessionary. However, the federal government workf...

As the U.S. government has entered a shutdown, Shane drops by to explain the scope of impact, along with next steps with respect to negotiations. Plus, thoughts on yesterday’s Oval Office announcement related to drug pricing. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors, Government Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Alejo rejoins the podcast to discuss why the Fed’s current rate-cutting cycle is so important for emerging market investors. We then highlight compelling opportunities across emerging market equities, fixed income, and currencies. Plus, a review of key risks to consider. Featured is Alejo Czerwonko, CIO for Emerging Markets Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US Congress failed to either change the rules or come to an agreement to avert a government shutdown. Economists now lack official economic data from the US. Private sector data is a poor substitute. Private data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole —clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like opening the door. Private data relies on official data to model the bits...

Coming off a busy week of economic data releases, and with the September employment report due out in just days, Jason shares thoughts around what recent data suggests about the state of the U.S. economy. Plus, a look at recent market drivers, along with the macro and market impacts of a potential shutdown of the U.S. government. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chie...

The final guess at UK second quarter GDP led to some modest increases in growth—cementing the UK’s position as the fastest growing G7 economy year-to-date. Better investment figures led the upgrade. Consumers’ savings rate increased, suggesting consumers have resources to fund future spending (despite retailers’ attempts at profit-led inflation).

Tune in for the annual UBS Studios fireside chat on the current market and macro environment, including thoughts around the economic impacts of artificial intelligence, the path forward for monetary policy, fixed income markets, and broader asset allocation with Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Executive Officer, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of DoubleLine Capital. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Current French Prime Minister Lecornu outlined their policy intentions, if they remain in power. A 4.7% GDP deficit target, no public holidays to be abolished, and no general wealth tax imposed—but tax justice is being talked of. This is likely to be a global trend. The great wealth transfer is underway, and governments with fiscal imbalances are likely to try to mobilize that wealth.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week – the September employment report, and a possible US government shutdown.

Cliff joins Jason at the 1285 podcast studio in New York to cover a wide-range of topics, including the growing impacts of electronic trading to financial markets, along with how machine learning and artificial intelligence are influencing approaches to investing. Plus, thoughts on the state of more traditional portfolio strategies, and the current macroeconomic environment. Featured are Jason Dra...

Social media posts from US President Trump overnight indicate a series of new trade tariffs. US buyers of foreign vanity units, soft furnishings, etc., as well as heavy trucks, and pharmaceuticals will be subject to new tariffs. The furniture tariffs, applied on national security grounds, are likely to have a muted impact. These are not high frequency purchases (lowering price awareness). Prices h...

Hear from members of the UBS Chief Investment Office fixed income team as they provide a performance and positioning update across fixed income sub-sectors. Featured are Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, Sudip Mukherjee, Senior Municipal Strategist Americas, along with Senior Fixed Income Strategists’ Barry McAlinden, Frank Sileo, & Leticia Zemaitis, from the UBS...

The US releases revised second quarter GDP data. The market consensus is for no change (given data quality problems, “no change” in the details may be unlikely). US growth has been distorted this year—export and inventory data swung wildly between the first and second quarters. Unfortunately, the fiction of annualization assumes that what happens in a quarter, however unique, is continually repeat...

On 1 July Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi assumed the role of Chief Investment Officer Americas, while continuing as Global Head of Equities for UBS Wealth Management. In a recent visit to the UBS On-Air podcast studio in New York, Ulrike outlined her vision for CIO Americas, discussed the evolution of artificial intelligence - including her experience in this space - and shared takeaways from her recen...

Yesterday saw some increase in macro uncertainty, in case investors thought the world was getting predictable. US President Trump’s comments on Ukraine, and on Russia presented a change of tone. That added some risk premium into the oil price. However, investors tend to be cautious about overreacting to such individual statements.

We examine regulatory reforms being implemented by the Trump administration to the US banking sector, including a look at potential changes to capital requirements, along with implications for both fixed income and equity investors. Featured are Barry McAlinden, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas, & Jeff Harwood, Financials Equity Analyst Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Danie...

Federal Reserve Chair Powell is to speak on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. The outlook is not likely to stray far from the tone of the last policy decision. Fed Governor Miran did stray quite a distance, suggesting rates were needed to be 2 percentage points lower (coincidentally, others outside the Fed have targeted that rate level). The consistency of Miran’s...

Jason drops by the studio to reflect on last week’s FOMC rate decision and market response. We then discuss expectations for rate cuts through the balance of the year, and into 2026. Plus, how and why the Fed funds rate will matter to markets from here, along with a review of CIO’s latest asset allocation recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Invest...

South Korean exports fell in the first part of September (when adjusting for the number of working days). Exports to the US and China (which often ultimately end up in the US) were weaker. Semiconductor sales were a predictable source of strength.

Tune in at the start of the trading week ahead of the New York opening bell as Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO Americas and Head of Global Equities for UBS Wealth Management, briefs you on what’s the signal, and what’s just noise in the markets. This week - the Fed decision and dot plots, the US semiconductor roadmap and key releases for next week.

Shane drops by to recap this week’s UK state visit by President Trump and a variety of economic agreements that were announced. We also cover efforts by the Trump administration to privatize government sponsored entities. Plus, an update on government funding negotiations on Capitol Hill. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassid...

Xingchen rejoins to cover three key themes for China investors to watch, followed by investment opportunities, including China tech. We then explore the EM equities landscape following the first Fed cut, and highlight key opportunities in emerging markets beyond China tech. Featured is Xingchen Yu, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Leslie joins in-studio to provide a fixed income performance update and outlook, including thoughts on how fixed income markets could respond to Fed rate cuts. Plus, a look at positioning considerations within the asset class, including views on investment grade, and agency mortgage-backed securities. Featured is Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas, UBS Chief Investment...