True Potential Morning Markets

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at ‘liberation day’, in which the tariffs announced by President Donald Trump will take effect immediately. However, there is still an ambiguity and uncertainty to the terms of the tariffs that take effect today, and the headlines are beginning to reflect in US economic data, prompting action from US firms.  

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks back at the first quarter of 2025 which saw a pickup in volatility across markets, driven by geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and evidence of cooling economic demand.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks back at the recent market disruption that President Trump’s fiscal policy has caused ahead of further tariffs going ahead this week. Headline US jobs data will also be released this week which is expected to reflect the administration's recent actions with further impacts from DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) on the horizon.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at the key drivers and events which have impacted markets this week. Tariffs continued to dominate the market outlook, with a surprise 25% tariff on all US auto imports. Closer to home, they discuss the consequences from the Spring statement, as well as the more encouraging UK inflation and retail sales.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager covers the new announcement from the US which will place a 25% tariff on all automobile imports and subsequently all manufacturing components. The US technology sector is already reacting to broader tariffs possibilities as well will include semi-conductors which are essential to their business.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the newly released February inflation figures for the UK, which have come in at 2.8%, and below expectations. While this may take some pressure off Chancellor Reeves, the Bank of England believe that we’re not out of the woods yet, and keen interest will be on comments made in today’s Spring Statement.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, discusses yesterday's strength in the US stock markets, driven by technology companies and positive investor sentiment surrounding the potential for a softer and more targeted tariff policy from President Trump. In the UK, manufacturing experienced its sixth consecutive month of contraction, whilst the services sector remains in robust health.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks into the current forecast for the UK Spring Statement which takes place later this week, and the challenges and restrictions the Labour Government face with fiscal policy moving forward.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, and Faye Graham, Investment Analyst, look back at a week when several major central banks held meetings on interest rate decisions, provided insights into economic projections, and revised inflation expectations. The team also looks into the shift in market attention from interest rates to tariffs, fiscal policy, and Chinese technology

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, breaks down the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates at 4.5%, what motivated the decision, and the fundamental shift in financial markets which is seeing other factors have a greater influence and pushing interest rates to the side. 

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks into the Bank of Japan’s decision to hold interest rates at 0.5%, the focus of the central banks discussion surrounding President Trump’s tariffs, and analyst expectations of interest rate hikes later this year.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, details a shift in economic growth forecasts, with the US being revised lower following consecutive weaker data prints and tariff uncertainty. In contrast to this, analysts have been quick to revise higher growth forecasts for Germany, given the prospect of significant fiscal spending on defence and infrastructure, and China, who are displaying more stability to...

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the US inflation report which came in cooler than expected last week and saw US Treasuries make positive returns. In contrast, the ongoing and wide reaching tariff policy from President Trump is having negative effects across several major economies and weighing heavy on market sentiment.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments and Sam Elliot, Investment Analyst, look at a global market still dominated by tariffs, or the threats of tariffs, with falls in most major equity indexes. In the UK the GDP print paints a picture of contraction and with the Spring Budget less than two weeks away, the pressure is on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to improve economic growth.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, breaks down why US inflation has come in below market expectations and how falling energy prices are a part of it. However, with ongoing tariffs from the Trump administration, the path of inflation remains blurred by trade uncertainty.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the historical bounce back of markets during times of volatility and the importance of the bond market in advanced diversification.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Investments, looks at the significant impact President Trump has had on US stock markets since taking office, and Delta Air Lines have cut their earnings expectations in half, with consumers dialing back on spending intentions amidst the economic uncertainty. 

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, reflects on a week which saw global equities down, and as we look to the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention US inflation reports and sentiment data to detect the first signs of expected cost increases brought on by tariffs.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, and Joe Forward, Investment Analyst, look at a week which has seen increased market volatility which is has largely been driven by US policy. In Europe, Germany has made major changes to its fiscal spending rules after the US withdrew aid for Ukraine which is shifting market sentiment.

George Bell, Portfolio Manager, looks at the largest move in European bond markets in 28 years, the causes behind it, and big winners behind the 2.15% advance in European equities.

Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at the initial equity market impact and policy response from Canada and China to President Trump’s tariffs. As the US withdraws military support from Ukraine, Germany plans to change fiscal spending rules to increase borrowing to boost its own military and assist Ukraine. In addition to this a 500bn Euro infrastructure fund is to be created which has positi...

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the realities of President Trump’s America first policy which has resulted in a swing in equity sentiment favouring Europe which is outperforming US equities by 15%. Despite a strong underlying economy in the US, doubts about tech superiority have dented consumer and business confidence with the Nasdaq down 5% year-to-date.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, recaps on the recent weakness in global equities with headwinds from ongoing US tariff policy and soft US economic data. As we look ahead to this week, Friday's US labour market report will be key, with expectations that jobs growth continues to be healthy. The European Central Bank meet on Thursday with another interest rate cut expected, while China’s Natio...

Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Faye Graham, Investment Analyst, cover the key developments this week which have influenced the recent spike in global equity volatility. Discussions range from Tariffs, Nvidia, softer US economic data and today's US inflation report.

Sebastian Mackay, Investment Director, looks at the price of gold which has recently hit new all-time highs. But can the price of gold continue to rise or does it face near term risks?