True Potential Morning Markets

Our Investment Director Kevin Kidney previews the week ahead with end of April jobs and GDP data coming through for the UK, and inflation data coming out of the USA, we'll dissect what this means for your investments.

This week George Bell, Portfolio Manager, and Faye Graham, Investment Analyst, review the European Central Bank's decision to cut interest rates for the first time in five years and the revision to inflation projections. The team also review the latest employment data from the US which reflected stronger than expected numbers for employment and wage growth over the month of May.

The US stock market hit a new high today as Nvidia surpass Apple for a market valuation of $3 trillion. Chris Leyland, Director of Investment strategy covers this, the cooling of the US job market and its affect on the equity markets as well as the imminent European Central Bank decision.

Today, Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks at recent economic data showing a moderation in growth in the US and what effect this is having on asset markets as well as the green shoots we’re seeing in other regions such as Europe and China.

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, focuses on the somewhat softer US manufacturing survey data and the reaction in markets. In addition, Paul discusses how markets can react to politics. This week we've had the election results in India and Mexico.

Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, looks ahead to the European Central Bank meeting this week and significant expectation of the first interest rate cut. This would mark a divergence from post covid monetary policy which has been led by the US Federal Reserve. Can data point from last week throw the decision into contention? 

Portfolio Manager’s George Bell and Matt Henderson on the last day of the month take a retrospective look at May in what was a positive month for both equity and bond markets. Resilience across developed market economies and business profitability paved way for breadth of regional equity market returns. Constructive themes for portfolios which outweighed political headlines. 

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation focuses on corporate earnings upgrades, the strength of the global consumer and the effect this is having on equity markets. As prices rise above inflation the US consumer is now taking their money elsewhere with expectations for companies such as McDonalds, Starbucks and Pepsi to offer promotions to retain market share. 

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, takes the opportunity to look at the key trends in equity markets and the benefits of global multi-asset exposures. With exceptional year to date figures in global equity markets, over the last week, AI enthusiasm has continued to support US equities.

Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, covers OPEC+ and their attempts to stabilise oil prices, the direction of US interest rates and the members of the European Central Bank’s comments which shed light on a potential cut in a decision taking place next week. Will we see a divergence of policy to the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England?

Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Matt Henderson Portfolio Manager cover what has been a busy week for markets and economic data. They discuss the latest UK inflation data, which disappointed but continues to trend towards the Bank of England's target. Despite softer UK retail sales they unpick why consumer confidence is rising. Finally, they discuss Nvidia, the company at the vanguard of...

The Nvidia share price increase has added approximately $140 billion in market capital as the company communicates that it can’t keep up with demand. Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, covers the market reaction to the figures but also on the forecasts Nvidia are making for Q2.

Today marks the lowest level of inflation in almost 3 years and the record fall in energy prices are a major factor. George Bell, Portfolio manager, breaks down the key factors that have resulted in the 2.3% reading and the market reaction. Will the strength of the UK service data continue to push back the decision on interest rates?

In an important week for UK data, Jeff Casson, Chief Investment Officer, reviews comments made yesterday by Ben Broadbent, Deputy Governor at the Bank of England. Of particular interest were the comments on the interaction of wage growth and consumer prices and how it factors into inflation targets. In addition to this the Deputy Governor appears to have changed position on rate cuts in light of t...

Today, Head of Asset Allocation, Kevin Kidney, talks through the imminent release of UK inflation data that is likely to confirm it is back to Bank of England targets and why it may even fall below it. Will the continuing decline of UK price pressures and inflation coming in at target encourage more consumer spending?

Today, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation and Matt Henderson, Portfolio manager, review the data from a week which provided record highs in global equities as well as UK employment. US inflation isn’t dropping to the Federal Reserve’s target, however the underlying factors are constructive with strong service sector data and robust employment in major economies. Will rate cuts be needed at all...

This morning, Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, discusses the economic factors that have resulted in a new all time high for global equities and the subsequent shift in narrative away from US led equities to the European market. This is turn is feeding a constructive earnings story for global corporates with positive revisions across multiple economies.

Today, Chris Leyland, Director of Investment Strategy, looks at the recent comments made by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the slowing of the rapid disinflation which was a key theme in 2023. Navigating the path of inflation has not been smooth but as economic factors shift, will the Federal Reserve change direction?

Paul Durrans, Investment Director, discusses the UK labour market data and how the rising unemployment rate will influence the Bank of England’s next interest rate decision in June. Despite the slight deterioration of employment figures, workers are still benefiting from higher pay. 

Matt Henderson, portfolio manager, looks to the week ahead with the upcoming UK employment data and both the US and European inflation data. With different economic dynamics at play, how will this affect their respective central banks perspective on interest rates?

Today, Paul Durrans, Investment Director and Faye Graham, Investment Analyst, cover the Bank of England’s decision to hold interest rates and the strength of global equities led by the UK. Furthermore, why the team are optimistic about future returns from multi-asset portfolios.

Kevin Kidney, Head of Asset Allocation, covers the imminent developments from the UK surrounding the Bank of England inflation forecasts and market insight into Friday’s GDP print. The refreshed forecast is likely to chart a lower path of inflation over the next two years and will be critical in deciding monetary policy moving forward. Could UK inflation fall closer to 1% this quarter?

Today, Paul Durrans, Investment Director, looks into the encouraging UK construction data which shows noticeable improvements in both commercial construction and civil engineering. However with house prices stagnating in April after a March contraction, housebuilding firms will eagerly be awaiting the Bank of Englands decision to lower interest rates. Will this help stabilise a volatile mortgage m...

Today Matt Henderson, Portfolio Manager, looks to the week ahead and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision as well as the UK GDP report released on Friday. With the UK’s strong growth and economic data it has caused consensus estimates to rise, but what does that mean for equity markets?

This week, our expert Investment Management team review the factors that have caused US interest rates to remain at 5.25%. 175,000 jobs were added to the US economy and this has led to equity and bonds markets rising. Equally, companies such as Amazon and Apple have exceeded revenue expectations. All factors are considered by Jerome Powell in the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates,...