Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

On September 14th, Californians will go to the polls to decide whether to 'recall' Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor in a very Democratic state. The first question is: why do this? The second is: what will be accomplished? In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the California recall to determine whether it is a valiant effort or a waste of time.

Every year, we get the same old warning about the depletion of the so-called Social Security Trust Fund at some date in the future. This year, the experts think it will be 2034. But will it really? After all, Social Security is as almost sacred on Capitol Hill. So, what do a Gen Xer and a Gen Zer think about the impending doom of America's favorite government program? This week John and Sam discus...

Sometimes, the weather report is the most important financial news. This goes especially for catastrophic storms which detrimentally impact economic activity. So, how will Ida affect the US economy? Will it be as bad as the winter storms in Texas earlier in the year? Also, why do businesses often get back to normal, or some sense of normal, faster than public services? In this week's Trading Persp...

Ever since the financial crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal government has flooded the world with debt and the Federal Reserve has gobbled it up. Currently, the Fed is buying up to $120 billion in debt securities each month with money that didn't previously exist. Now that the financial system is flush with cash, if not drowning it in, how much longer should the Fed continue to stimulate the system?...

In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the recent happenings in Afghanistan, and try to make sense of one of the bigger black eyes the US has gotten in years. Are there any generational differences of opinion when assessing the debacle that has unfolded in Kabul? Are there any takeaways? Any lessons to be learned? What does it all mean in the grand scheme of things and, most imp...

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US economy currently has over 10 million available jobs. Where are they? What kind of jobs are they? Why aren't more people taking them? Is it really a good thing to have that many job openings? In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam analyze the current state of the labor markets, and try to understand the mismatch between the supply of j...

What if they threw an Olympics and no one cared? Although the games are comfortably winning their respective time slots, viewership is significantly lower in both absolute and relative terms compared to recent Summer Olympics. What are the reasons? Change in viewer behavior? Confusion about schedules? Lack of fans at the live events? An overall dearth of team spirit? Generational differences? All...

COVID-19 cases are again on the rise and vaccinations are falling. Will this recent spike in the Delta Variant lead to business and education lockdowns like last year? Would the US economy be able to rebound if that happens? Also, who isn't getting vaccinated, and why? With all the data the government has, it should be able to target areas of weakness instead of implementing blanket policies which...

Recent studies suggest reducing the workweek might actually increase worker productivity. So, is it a good idea to ease the time constraints on workers in order for them to produce more? It might seem counterintuitive, but the results don't lie. Or do they? After all, do employers pay for output or time? That is the question. This week, John and Sam tackle the so-called 4-day work week to see whet...

With stubbornly low interest, is the United States in danger of becoming the next Japan? A zombie economy characterized by persistent low growth and puny asset returns? While there are similarities between the two countries, the differences more than outweigh them. In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John analyze Japan's "lost decades" in order to make the case the United States will NOT...

Are the uptick in violent crime across the country and the Defund the Police movement correlated? Regardless, what message does 'defunding' your local law enforcement agencies send to outsiders? Is that good for economic growth? In this week's Trading Perspectives, Sam and John analyze what potentially happens when you defund the police in your area.

One aspect of the American Dream is the next generation will be better off than the previous one. Up until now, this has been the case in the United States. However, will it be so in the future? With all of societal unrest and distrust of one another, what do a Gen Z and a Gen X think about the future? What has the potential to change their forecast? In this week's Trading Perspective, John and Sa...

Last week, 2 major meetings took place.  One was the FOMC Meeting and the other was the much-anticipated Summit between Putin and Biden. Despite how widely anticipated these two meetings were, neither one of them produced any major news.  If these two events weren't able to move the markets, what did? What was the unexpected news that caused investors to lose billions of dollars?

Is wearing a mask un-American? It seems the simple act of wearing a covering over your nose and mouth in public places has become a political issue. Those on the extreme far right say masks are affronts to their personal liberty, whereas people on the far left claim they in the 'public good.' So, what is it? In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the issue of mask wearing, and i...

Whenever investors take things to extremes, it seems we always hear the excuse: "this time is different." While that may or may not be case, what should investors do when this becomes the prevailing wisdom? Are things really that different or are we using the new difference as rationale to behave stupidly? In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam take a look at some recent, and some not s...

This year, Americans have heard the phrase 'supply-chain bottlenecks' more times than they can count, and they have noticed the inflation these bottlenecks can bring. However, will this inflation last? Or is it transitory, as Fed Chairman has told the markets over and over again? Should we believe the Fed or should we believe our eyes? Do we even have to ask the question? This week John and Sam di...

A common argument for cryptocurrencies is their relative limited supply should help keep a lid on inflation. However, is this completely true? Also, is inflation always a bad thing? To that end, is a limited money supply really a good thing? This week, John and Sam analyze the role cryptocurrencies play, or maybe don't play, in inflation, and discuss the long-term impacts of inflation on economic...

As wealthier, more economically developed, countries emerge from the COVID pandemic, much of the emerging world remains mired in the outbreak. This has the potential to cause 'the rich to get richer, and the poor to get poorer.' What can wealthy countries do, if anything, to help keep the situation from getting worse? What can poorer countries do to lift themselves up? In this week's Trading Persp...

There are more job openings than ever in the US economy, but people don't seem to want them. The data suggests the nation's unskilled and semi-skilled hourly workforce isn't going back to work the way you would expect now that local economies are reopening. So, what is happening here? Since human beings are typically rational and respond to economic incentives, there has to be a monetary reason wh...

The Administration has great plans to spend a lot of money, money the Treasury doesn't have. So, it has to figure out some way to pay for it all, or at least make a dent in it. In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam discuss the President's plan to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Are increasing corporate taxes a good way of raising the cash? If so, what is the optimal rate?...

In this week's Trading Perspectives, John and Sam wrap on their 2-part series on the status of the US dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. If there aren't any other major, traditional currencies that can currently challenge the Almighty Dollar, could cryptocurrencies? Where do they stand in the currency markets and investors' portfolios? #USdollar, #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin, #reserves

The US dollar has enjoyed a long run as the world's primary reserve currency. This has been due to the nation's economic strength, the liquidity and transparency of its financial markets, and American adherence to the rule of law and strong individual property rights. However, will the global supply of dollars due to our massive deficit spending and trade imbalances ultimately swamp demand? What a...

If we know the common characteristics of poverty and the impact of economic disenfranchisement on a societal, how do we find a solution? First, we need to agree on a goal, that all Americans should have economic opportunity. Second, we must think 'outside the box' and be willing to do things differently in order to get better results. Third, we have to push traditional politics to the side.

Just because a country has wide spread income inequality, doesn't necessarily mean there is no economic opportunity. If the opportunity is there, then what's the problem? Usually the problem arises when people feel like they can't get ahead and the system is working against them. What causes people to feel this way and what are the largest impacts made by income inequality on society?

Nobody likes income inequality, yet it continuously gets a lot of press. People say the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. But why? In Part 1 of our Income Inequality series, John and Sam discuss the root causes and key trends of income inequality in the United States?