Trading Perspectives: An Economic Podcast

With the growing number of startup companies, the gig economy seems to be on the rise.  Gig type employment has expanded from maids and the kid that cuts your grass to Instagram influencers to uber drivers.  PayPal, Venmo and Zelle make it easy to compensate cash-in-hand types of jobs but ultimately result in an increase in unreported income.  How is the gig economy affecting social security and M...

The Coronavirus has taken the stock market by storm over the past week as more and more cases pop up across the globe.  Airlines are cancelling flights to and from parts of China and almost 200 American's are under federal quarantine in California. How is this virus different from other contagious illnesses, such as the flu or tuberculosis?  Is it China's lack of transparency or is the market's re...

Last week, Geneva-based World Economic Forum held its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland where close to 3,000 of the world's wealthiest, most powerful, and anointed, including an estimated 119 billionaires met to discuss climate change.  In this episode, John and Sam discuss the difference in the men who built our country's economy in the 19th century, and the wealthy and powerful of today's wor...

Science fiction is becoming the new reality.  Last week, NASA's Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) discovered its first Earth-size planet in its star's habitable zone that could potentially support human life. So, what else is out there that we don't know about?  Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and many other major players in the business community are already involved in the development of space...

On January 3rd, 2020 President Trump authorized the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Many have since made it clear that they are not in support of the US Military's effort to eliminate the terrorist leader. One week later, stock prices are up and oil prices are down so what are people worried about?  This week, John and Sam talk about the need for a draft, how Iran will respond a...

After a rough end to 2018, many were worried about a volatile 2019.  Although the bricks in the proverbial wall of worry didn't change much, 2019 was anything but volatile. What made 2019 so different and what can we expect for 2020?

This week John and Sam talk about the unemployment rate and the different ways that it's measured.  Right now, the unemployment rate is historically low at 3.5%.  Many people are saying the rate is below the natural rate of unemployment.  So how low can it go? What is a good number and how should it be calculated?

This week John and Sam talk about the effect of monetary policy on income inequality.  Many people think that monetary policy has led to a spike in inequality when it comes to wealth and income, but there is more to this topic than just whether or not the Fed raises the overnight lending target.  How does monetary policy actually impact the bottom quintile? 

This week, John and Sam answer the frequently asked question, when will the trade deal get done? The answer: probably not anytime soon.  Donald Trump and President Xi are not playing the same game.  US politicians generally think in terms of elections, 2- or 4-year increments.  President Xi could technically be president forever so what is the rush for him to come to an agreement with the US? How...

How long can politicians hold back the inevitable? When people enjoy the rule of law, private property rights, and the development of human capital economic growth will happen.  If you don't provide these things or try to stop them, your economy will sputter and eventually come to a halt. While people love to look at the past with rose colored glasses, change almost always brings improvement.

Lately it seems the entire world is protesting about something, even in the U.S. But why? Inequality seems to be a hot topic across the board and many feel the "wealthy" are to blame.  According to the recent Census, the average income is much lower than one would think.  Should we shift the focus to the 25% earning less than $25,000/year? Should there be more focus on the development of human cap...

Socialism, a term with a historically negative connotation, has become somewhat of a buzzword lately as many democratic politicians consider themselves socialists.  So, what exactly is socialism?  Clearly Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Elizabeth Warren have a different view on socialism than those of the WW2 generation.  How do different generations feel about socialism and what makes it appealing to so...

Longer-term interest rates have been going up, and that is a good thing? John and Sam discuss how lower rates were supposedly the cure for what ails us earlier in the year, and how that has changed in November. Perhaps there is some truth to the argument: "higher long-term interest rates are bad for asset prices except for when they aren't." They aren't, or haven't been, recently.  But why?

Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US economy created 128,000 new payroll jobs.  So far, the participation rate is the highest it's been since 2013. However, people are still talking about a recession.  Should we be worried about a recession in 2020?  If so, what can we expect compared to 2008? What are the differences in the economy in 2008 and now?

This week, John and Sam focus on the importance of taxation in order to boost economic growth and alleviate poverty.  Dr. Abhijit Banerjee, a professor at MIT, was recently featured in a Bloomberg article in which he states that taxing the rich and large corporations is the only way to alleviate poverty.    Although taxation is important to economic growth, high tax rates don't ensure a strong eco...

There is no doubt that consumer buying patterns are evolving, but after driving by 2 fine jewelers that are going out of business, John and Sam notice that people are shifting away from luxurious goods.  From fine china and silver platters, watches, and even beer, people are interested in more practical goods.  People are finding value in the product itself not in the marketing fluff.  Are these c...

With the rarely mentioned Repo market showing signs of stress, and the Federal Reserve being forced to pump more cash into the market, is the Fed losing control of monetary policy? Is the national debt maybe a bigger issue than we previously thought?

Last week, California signed the Fair Pay to Play Act into law, a bill permitting college athletes in the state to hire agents and be paid for endorsements.  The law is scheduled to take effect in 2023.  If passed, how could it effect smaller programs? Will this law draw all the most talented athletes to California state schools, in turn forcing other athletic programs to pass similar laws to stay...

With Juul gaining more notoriety as of late, John and Sam discuss what it would take for companies to change their core businesses.  Will investors be willing to carve companies like Altria, one of Juul's major investors, out of their portfolios?  If the S&P would return 8% with those types of companies in it, or only 7% without it, would a majority of people be willing to sacrifice their returns?

Last week 8 drones attacked the Aramco oil fields in Saudi Arabia, ultimately causing increased tensions in the middle east.   The attacks took out 50% of Saudi Arabia's oil production and 5% of the worlds global output.  Crude oil, which is used for more than just gasoline, remains a controversial topic in the US as many American's want to stop oil production in the US altogether.  What do these...

There has been something strange about recent weather patterns. Temperatures have been unusually high, even for those of us accustomed to them. It's not surprising when you consider 7.7 billion people, requiring food to eat, water to drink, clothes and shoes to wear, and a cool, dry place to live will consume a lot of natural resources around the globe, putting some level of stress on the environm...

Last week, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, said that it's only a matter of time before negative interest rates spread to the United States.  In this episode of Trading Perspectives John and Sam talk about why much of Europe has negative interest rates and what would need to change for that to happen here. If American risk tolerance were to change, could the US sustain negat...

Throughout history, empires have come and gone, but they have all had some common characteristics. The American empire is a little different. This week John and Sam discuss economic growth of countries and how the US empire works on a financial and economic basis. How does the US fit into Global GDP historically? What role has the United States played in this new period of accelerated growth and a...

How strong is America's economy? That really depends on who you ask.  Since the Roosevelt administration, the most widely used measure of economic strength is in terms of GDP.  Gross Domestic Product.  This week, John and Sam compare GDP to lesser known measure called Gross National Happiness.  Is GDP still the most accurate way to measure the health of our economy and growth of society?  What is...

In this week's episode of Trading Perspectives, John and Sam talk about an article written by Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith titled "It's Gotten Too Hard to Strike it Rich In America".  The article suggests that big companies, institutional investors, tight lending standards and degree requirements make it tougher for the average American to achieve the American Dream.  Is the American Dream dying...