Trade Matters

With global growth this year forecast to hit just 2.4%, according to Export Development Canada’s latest  Global Economic Outlook , the air is coming out of the global economy. https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod  

The global critical mineral supply chain is complex and fraught with risk, raising questions around how secure and stable critical mineral development will be over the long term. To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod

The challenges posed by increasing tightness in labour markets are great. But Canada isn’t alone in dealing with these labour deficiencies. To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod  

Our modern economies have evolved to depend on one another, in which no one region or ideological camp can be fully self-sufficient. So, has globalization reached a critical turning point?  To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod  

The U.S. is racing to secure essential technologies and supplies in the name of economic prosperity and national security. Should Canada be worried about this doubling down on protectionist policies? To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod

Why is the global economy feeling like a ship sailing into still and stagnant waters, as developed and emerging economies alike struggle for momentum? To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod  

While diversifying to new markets can be rewarding, it also comes with risk. The bold few, who are ready to brave the complicated current geopolitical backdrop, will find immeasurable opportunity. Those who are well-informed will be best-positioned for success. To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod

While it’s easy to be distracted by the day-to-day gyrations of the market, and the flurry of news around the global economy, we need to keep our eyes on the immutable structural trends that will shape the world that Canadian companies will be competing in over the long term. To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod

As we expect to see a gradual weakening of Canada’s domestic economy in 2023, international trade will be more important than ever. So, why has the share of Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) and jobs supported by exports fallen from 38% in 2001 to 30% in 2021? To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod

In 2023, will the gains that helped many African countries emerge as competitive markets be reversed or will this be another test of resilience for the continent? To know more: https://go.edc.ca/trade-insights_pod

The global economy came careening into 2022 having navigated a series of peaks, valleys and blind curves. How will we navigate 2023? To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/global-economy-hard-road-ahead.html

Only two years ago the European Council announced enhanced greenhouse gas reduction goals, targeting a 55% cut in emissions by 2030. Can Europe’s immediate energy needs be reconciled against these ambitious climate change targets that require a phaseout of fossil fuels? To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/energy-crisis-threat-europe-climate-goals.html

As we close out 2022, EDC Economics looks back at some of the predominant themes of the past year, and what they mean for 2023. To know more:  https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/2022-review-year-ahead.html

Twice a year, our Trade Confidence Index survey goes to field to gauge how global and domestic economic conditions are impacting Canadian exporters and export-ready businesses. With Canadian exporters facing unprecedented levels of uncertainty, due to supply chain concerns, rising business costs, global economic conditions, staffing and cash flow challenges, it won’t be surprising that the overall...

The current wave began in 2018 with the election of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, through Argentina in 2019, Bolivia in 2020, Peru, Honduras, Chile in 2021 and the historic 2022 election of Gustavo Petro in Colombia. And, on Oct. 30, Brazil’s Lula defeated incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, returning the icon of the Latin American left to the presidency. Is Latin America witness...

We came into 2022 with hopes of finally putting the COVID-19 volatility behind us, but the lingering fallout continues to cause global economic hardships. The more downbeat outlook for the global economy has caused country risks. However, this doesn’t mean that Canadian companies should sit on the sidelines. To know more:  https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/edc-monitoring-country-risks.h...

With the world’s central banks now focused on bringing inflation down from near 40-year highs, energy disruptions in Europe expected to intensify over the winter and the continuation of China’s zero-COVID-19 policies, global trade is expected to weaken heading into year-end. To learn more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/global-export-forecast-trade-slowdown.html

While the global cleantech market is projected to exceed US$2.5 trillion by 2022, Canada’s slice of that is about 2% of the total. Can Canada supercharge its cleantech exports? And what does the current global environment mean for our cleantech aspirations? To learn more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/canada-cleantech-potential.html

To say that 2022 hasn’t played out quite the way most have expected would be an understatement. Going forward, there are many interdependent risks with global implications. Our fall 2022 Global Economic Outlook sees global growth falling to 2.2% this year, and 2.6% in 2023. While we aren’t forecasting a global recession, a fragile global economy leaves little room for error. To know more: https://...

While the volatility of the day has made it more difficult to see beyond the current market turmoil, a look at structural trends helps restore focus on the world we’re moving towards. To help see through cyclical gyrations, and get a clear view of where we’re headed, we have updated our list of key long-term trends. To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/edc-trends-watch.html

If nothing else, talk of recession and depressed demand have brought temporary relief to out-of-control food prices. However, it may be premature to declare victory over the global food crisis. As pressures on these vital supplies persist, is there a role for Canada to play? To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/sectors-in-focus-commentary.html

As we struggle to exit the global pandemic, the path ahead is fraught with risk. Many of these risks are interrelated and interdependent, perhaps more-so than at any other time in recent history. Here’s hoping that a gentle unravelling of these risks is more than just a Summertime Dream . To know more:  https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/edc-top-10-risks-commentary.html

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has threatened global fuel security and set in motion a series of events that raise questions around existing supply lines. Does Europe’s energy predicament offer an opportunity for Canadian oil and gas? To know more:  https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/canada-europe-energy-supply-options.html

Perspective is everything, or so we’re told. So, what do past business cycles, a part of the normal fluctuations experienced by all economies over time, tell us about what’s in store for the global economy today? And what can exporters do about it? To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/economic-downturns-much-shorter.html

After two years defined by the spread of COVID-19, and associated public health restrictions, there was widespread belief that in 2022 we would race full-speed to the path we were on before the pandemic. Now, almost midway through the year, with growth likely to slow and more challenges in view, the global economy faces a bumpy road ahead. To know more: https://www.edc.ca/en/weekly-commentary/weak...