Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo: International Commerce, Trade Wars, and Global Supply Chains

In mid-2026, Japan's export machine is showing cracks. The yen has weakened to 161 per dollar, but the trade data tells a different story. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how Japan's export dominance is cracking under the strong dollar and shifting supply chains. They look at the real numbers: Japan's trade balance has swung from surplus to deficit in key sectors, while the yen's depreciat...

South Korea's exports, a bellwether for global trade, are faltering sharply in mid-2026. Lucas and Luna drill into the data: the Kospi is down nearly 10% in a week, the won is at 1,614 per dollar, and key industries like semiconductors and shipbuilding face headwinds from China's retaliatory curbs and a strong dollar. They explore how the export-dependent economy is squeezed between geopolitical t...

The US dollar has surged to a trade-weighted index of 120.4, and it's not just making imports cheaper. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how the strong dollar is squeezing emerging market exporters, widening trade imbalances, and creating winners and losers across the global economy. With South Korea's export-driven KOSPI down nearly 10% in a week and Thailand's baht under pressure, the host...

Lucas and Luna examine how the trade-weighted US dollar index hitting 120.4 is reshaping global trade. They focus on the diverging fortunes of South Korea's KOSPI, down nearly 10 percent in a week, and Brazil's Bovespa, which is up on commodity exports. Specific numbers: the won has fallen 15 percent against the dollar this year, while the real has held steady. The hosts explain why a strong dolla...

The Baltic Dry Index tracks the cost of shipping raw materials like iron ore and coal across the world's oceans. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the index has dropped 22 percent since April 2026, even as container shipping rates stay elevated. They explore the divergence between bulk shipping and container shipping, how China's slowing construction sector is dragging down demand for...

As US-led tariffs on China reshuffle global supply chains, Indian IT services firms have quietly become unexpected beneficiaries. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine how companies like Infosys and TCS are seeing a surge in demand from Western clients seeking China alternatives for back-office operations, software development, and cloud migration. They unpack a specific case: a major US bank sh...

The S&P 500 is down 1.4% on the week, but the real story is happening in emerging markets. South Korea's EWY has plunged 8.2% in five days, while Brazil's EWZ is up 1.5%. Lucas and Luna dig into the forces driving this divergence: the yen's slide to 161.4 per dollar, China's yuan depreciation to 6.77, and the Trump administration's latest tariff threats on digital services. They focus on one concr...

This episode explores how India is emerging as the primary beneficiary of the global supply chain shift away from China, with a focus on the electronics and semiconductor sectors. Lucas and Luna discuss recent data showing India's export growth of 18% year-over-year, while China's share of global manufacturing exports has declined for the third consecutive year. They examine the specific policies...

As trade tensions between the US and China escalate and the dollar strengthens against emerging market currencies, Brazil is quietly becoming China's go-to supplier for soy, iron ore, and oil. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine the numbers: Chinese imports of Brazilian soy are up 23% year-over-year in Q2 2026, while imports from the US have slumped. They discuss how currency dynamics — the Br...

The yuan has weakened to 6.77 per dollar as of June 18, 2026, the lowest level in over a decade. This episode explores how China's deliberate currency depreciation is reshaping global trade flows — making Chinese exports cheaper while squeezing competitors like Vietnam and Thailand. Lucas and Luna examine the data: the trade-weighted dollar index at 120.4, emerging market ETF outflows (FXI down 3....

Lucas and Luna unpack how the yen's slide past 161 per dollar and the dollar's persistent strength are creating a hidden crisis in emerging market corporate debt. With the trade-weighted dollar index at 120.4 and yen at 161.4, companies that borrowed in dollars or yen are facing a sudden repayment squeeze. They walk through the mechanics, point to South Korea's recent export slowdown and the 6 per...

South Korea's KOSPI just suffered one of its worst single-day drops in years. The export-driven economy that rode the global trade boom is now facing a triple threat: a surging won, weakening demand from China, and a semiconductor cycle that's rolling over. Lucas and Luna unpack the numbers — Korea's trade balance swung from a $5 billion surplus to near zero in just six months, and its biggest com...

Factory job cuts in June 2026 are approaching levels not seen since the financial crisis and the early days of Covid, according to a new S&P report. Lucas and Luna drill into the numbers: which industries are hardest hit, whether it's a structural shift or a temporary blip, and what it means for the broader economy. They connect the factory layoffs to the weakening yen, the ongoing chip rout, and...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine why Thailand is emerging as the top destination for factories relocating from China, overtaking Vietnam and Mexico. Using new data from the Board of Investment, they break down the 83 percent surge in foreign direct investment applications in 2026, with a focus on the Eastern Economic Corridor. They discuss how electronics and automotive supply chains are sh...

In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine why Mexico's nearshoring boom is stalling while Thailand surges ahead. Despite being a top destination for supply chain relocation in 2024 and 2025, Mexico's advantages — proximity to the US, USMCA trade deal — are being eroded by infrastructure bottlenecks, water shortages, and inconsistent policy. Meanwhile, Thailand's ETF...

China has just imposed trade restrictions on dozens of US firms in retaliation for the Pentagon blacklist. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down what these curbs actually target—critical minerals, advanced manufacturing inputs, and rare earth processing know-how—and why this escalates the decoupling narrative beyond semiconductors. They examine the impact on companies like Lockheed Martin and...

Episode 66 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo examines Vietnam's rapid ascent as the world's preferred manufacturing alternative to China. Lucas and Luna break down specific data: Vietnam's export growth, the surge in foreign direct investment from electronics giants, and the country's infrastructure challenges. They tie this to the broader trade realignment visible in emerging-market ETF flows—Sou...

On June 20, 2026, Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz again as Vice President Vance heads to Switzerland for talks. Lucas and Luna examine how this chokepoint closure is rerouting global oil flows, spiking tanker rates, and forcing refiners from Europe to Asia to scramble for alternative supplies. They discuss the impact on the trade-weighted US dollar index, which has slipped to 119.5, an...

On June 20, 2026, Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz again, sending shockwaves through global oil markets and trade routes. In this episode, hosts Lucas and Luna examine how the closure is rerouting crude shipments, spiking tanker rates, and forcing importers in Asia and Europe to scramble for alternatives. They discuss the ripple effects on countries like India and South Korea, which rel...

In this episode of Trade and Tariffs, Lucas and Luna examine Thailand's surging exports and ETF performance amid global trade realignment in mid-2026. With the iShares MSCI Thailand ETF (EWT) up over 7% in the past five days, they explore how Thailand has positioned itself as a key beneficiary of supply chain shifts away from China and the strong dollar. They discuss specific sectors like electron...

A severe memory chip shortage is rippling through global supply chains, and even Apple isn't immune. Lucas and Luna break down why the crisis has gotten so extreme, how it's reshaping trade flows for semiconductors, and what it means for consumer electronics prices. They anchor the discussion to the latest trade balance data and the weakening dollar, connecting chip shortages to broader economic t...

Lucas and Luna dig into the surging cost of moving goods by sea — container shipping rates have jumped over 60 percent since January 2026, hitting $8,500 per forty-foot container on the Asia-to-US route. They explore how this spike is reshaping supply chain decisions and trade flows, from nearshoring acceleration to inventory stockpiling. The hosts connect the shipping cost surge to the broader do...

In this episode of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore the recent surge in South Korea ETFs, up nearly 12 percent in a week. They examine how the country is benefiting from trade realignment as companies diversify away from China, with specific data on the EWY ETF performance and the weakening yen. The hosts discuss the role of semiconductor exports and the impact of the strong...

Episode 59 of Trade and Tariffs with Fexingo digs into a surprising trend: as of June 2026, global corporations and even Wall Street banks are rushing to tap China's bond market for cheap yuan-denominated loans. With the trade-weighted US dollar index at 119.5 and the yuan at 6.76 per dollar, Chinese credit offers a rare low-cost haven. Lucas and Luna break down the mechanics — from 'panda bonds'...

The US dollar has been weakening across the board, but the euro's rally to $1.16 is particularly striking. Lucas and Luna dig into why the euro is gaining ground, from shifting ECB policy to a narrowing interest rate differential. They break down what this means for US exporters, European tourists, and global trade flows. With the trade-weighted dollar index slipping to 119.5 and the euro at a one...